Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Event-Driven

Fast Facts<ul><li>In the first three quarters of 2016, there were 24 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record of 37 set in CY2015. </li><li>Significant merger investigations through Q3 2016 lasted 9.7 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than one-third longer than from 2011 to 2013. </li><li>The antitrust agencies filed three complaints in the third quarter for a total of five complaints YTD, also on pace to challenge the record level of CY2015 when seven complaints were filed.</li><li>Scheduling orders related to the complaints filed in 2016 indicate that antitrust merger litigation is taking even longer with 147 days between complaint and the start of trial and 27 days for trial, up 47% and 125%, respectively, from cases filed in CY2015.</li></ul>

 Fast FactsIn the first three quarters of 2016, there were 24 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record of 37 set in CY2015. Significant merger investigations through Q3 2016 lasted 9.7 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than one-third longer than from 2011 to 2013. The antitrust agencies filed three complaints in the third quarter for a total of five complaints YTD, also on pace to challenge the record level of CY2015 when seven complaints were filed.Scheduling orders related to the complaints filed in 2016 indicate that antitrust merger litigation is taking even longer with 147 days between complaint and the start of trial and 27 days for trial, up 47% and 125%, respectively, from cases filed in CY2015.

No Let Up in Antitrust Merger Investigation or the Duration of Merger Investigations

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its standard-bearer, should normally seal the presidency for the Democrat, in this case former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.  Yet this is anything but a ‘normal’ political cycle in the United States.Control Risks believes Clinton will be the next president of the United States, the first female ever to serve in that position. But a number of eye-widening firsts in this presidential contest obligates us to take very seriously the possibility that her Republican rival, Donald Trump, can overcome his disadvantages and wind up in the White House.Beyond a core of about 20% of the electorate on each side that hold favourable views of their candidate of choice, it appears that for the most of the electorate, the more they see of either candidate, the less inclined they are to vote for him or her. Turnout is likely to be very low. In a recent series of articles on the US elections, <a href="https://www.controlrisks.com/" target="_blank">Control Risks</a>' chief US political risks analyst, Michael Moran, looks at both scenarios - a Clinton presidency and a Trump presidency.

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its standard-bearer, should normally seal the presidency for the Democrat, in this case former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.  Yet this is anything but a ‘normal’ political cycle in the United States.Control Risks believes Clinton will be the next president of the United States, the first female ever to serve in that position. But a number of eye-widening firsts in this presidential contest obligates us to take very seriously the possibility that her Republican rival, Donald Trump, can overcome his disadvantages and wind up in the White House.Beyond a core of about 20% of the electorate on each side that hold favourable views of their candidate of choice, it appears that for the most of the electorate, the more they see of either candidate, the less inclined they are to vote for him or her. Turnout is likely to be very low.  In a recent series of articles on the US elections, Control Risks' chief US political risks analyst, Michael Moran, looks at both scenarios - a Clinton presidency and a Trump presidency.

2016 US Elections Scenario Two: Donald Trump Wins

2016 US Elections Scenario One: Hillary Clinton Wins

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade. While the much-awaited Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is still expected to pass, strong public support for increased protectionism, and the general rhetoric coming out of the US presidential campaign, hints at broader trade and currency risks for Asia Pacific, in particular for those companies reliant on global supply chains for manufacturing. Michael Moran from Control Risks reviews whether the tides have turned against free trade.

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade. While the much-awaited Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is still expected to pass, strong public support for increased protectionism, and the general rhetoric coming out of the US presidential campaign, hints at broader trade and currency risks for Asia Pacific, in particular for those companies reliant on global supply chains for manufacturing. Michael Moran from Control Risks reviews whether the tides have turned against free trade.

United States

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. broadcasts various channels of audio from its satellites. The Company provides its services throughout the continental United States for a monthly subscription fee. Sirius delivers various streams of commercial-free music in every genre, as well as streams of  news, sports, weather, talk, comedy, and public radio.

News Corporation operates in the publishing industry. The Company provides publications consisting of newspapers, magazines, books and promotional inserts.

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. produces live concerts and sells tickets to those events over the Internet. The Company also offers ticketing services for leading arenas, stadiums, professional sports franchises and leagues, college sports teams, performing arts venues, museums and theaters.

The Walt Disney Company is an entertainment company that conducts operations in media networks, studio entertainment, theme parks and resorts, consumer products, and interactive media. The Company produces motion pictures, television programs, and musical recordings, as well as books and magazines.

Omnicom Group Inc. provides advertising, marketing and corporate communications services. The Company's agencies, which operate in major markets around the world, provide a comprehensive range of services including traditional media advertising; customer relationship management ("CRM"); public relations; and specialty communications.

Liberty Media Corp-Liberty Braves operates as a media company. The Company offers media, communications, and entertainment businesses. Liberty Media Corp-Liberty Braves conducts business in the United States.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. is a professional sports company that owns and operates sports franchises.

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS US)

The New York Times Company operates media businesses.  The Company publishes daily newspapers and operates Internet websites.  The newspapers and websites distribute news and entertainment.

The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. is an organization of advertising agencies and marketing service companies.  The Company operates globally in the sectors of advertising, independent media buying, direct marketing, healthcare communications, interactive consulting services, marketing research, promotions, experiential marketing, public relations, and sports marketing.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

REA Group Limited provides online property listings, web development and internet related technology services to the real estate industry along with providing advertising services to Australian companies.  The Company also offers online real estate search services to the Australian public.

Publicis Groupe SA offers advertising services.  The Company develops advertising campaigns and sells advertising on billboards and urban furniture, in newspapers and magazines, on radio, and in movie theaters.  Publicis offers direct marketing, customer relationship marketing, sales promotion, public relations and human resources services, and operates retail drugstores.

Informa PLC provides business information on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides information in the finance and insurance, maritime transport and trade, law and tax, telecom and media, commodities and energy, and biomedical and pharmaceutical global markets.  Informa provides its information through newspapers, magazines, electronic media, books, and journals.

Pearson plc provides education products and services to institutions, governments and individual learners in over 80 countries. The Company's major revenue markets are North America, 'Core' including the UK, Italy and Australia and 'Growth' including Brazil, China and South Africa. It also owns the Financial Times, 50% of the Economist and 47% of Penguin Random House.

TOHO CO., LTD. produces and distributes motion pictures for cinema, television, and video.  The Company also sells character merchandise based on their media productions, distributes foreign films, operates musical theaters, and produces musical shows. In addition, Toho manages movie theaters in urban areas.

DENTSU INC. mainly provides comprehensive advertising services.  The Company also provides marketing and event planning & promotion services.  Dentsu has associated companies in the US, Europe, and Asia.

TOKYO BROADCASTING SYSTEM HOLDINGS, INC. is a media company that broadcasts television and radio programs nationally.  The Company offers a variety of TV programs & film production, visual & music software production, and cable television programming.  Tokyo Broadcasting System provides digital satellite broadcasting services and also operates real estate business.

Compagnie du Cambodge is an investment holding company that invests in companies active in agriculture, industry, real estate and finance.  The Company owns and operates plantations in Malaysia and forests in Cameroon.

JC Decaux SA offers advertising services.  The Company sells advertising on street furniture such as bus shelters, free standing panels, columns, and automatic toilets, billboards, and posters on buses, trains, and subways, and at railroad stations and airports.

CTS Eventim AG & Co. KGaA produces, sells, brokers and distributes entry tickets for concerts, theater productions, artistic, sporting and similar events. The Company operates an online booking system that allows event promoters to sell their tickets over a variety of distribution channels. CTS also sells tickets directly over the Internet and a call center and offers system support services.

Comcast Corporation provides media and television broadcasting services. The Company offers video streaming, television programming, high-speed internet, cable television, and communication services. Comcast serves customers worldwide.

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Comcast Corp Class A (CMCSA US)

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

No Let Up in Antitrust Merger Investigation or the Duration of Merger Investigations

Fast Facts In the first three quarters of 2016, there were 24 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record of 37...

Dechert LLP

2016 US Elections Scenario Two: Donald Trump Wins

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its...

Control Risks

2016 US Elections Scenario One: Hillary Clinton Wins

A US election fought under moderately favourable economic conditions, with a Republican electorate divided and openly unhappy with its...

Control Risks

On Trade, An Era Is Ending

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade....

Control Risks

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