Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.</li>
<li>Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.</li>
<li>With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int'l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).


Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polynovo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12208:1" rel="noopener">PolyNovo Ltd (PNV AU)</a> develops, manufactures, and markets artificial dermal templates. The company has only one marketed product and 88% of total revenue comes from the U.S.</li>
<li>Although U.S. business is on high trajectory, the company’s drive to expand sales team and pipeline progress are putting pressure on the profitability, which do not justify the superior valuation.</li>
<li>I would like to wait for PolyNovo to become profitable post its investment for growth, start offering multiple differentiated products, with sizable presence in OUS markets, to have higher conviction.</li>
</ul>



PolyNovo Ltd (PNV AU) develops, manufactures, and markets artificial dermal templates. The company has only one marketed product and 88% of total revenue comes from the U.S.
Although U.S. business is on high trajectory, the company’s drive to expand sales team and pipeline progress are putting pressure on the profitability, which do not justify the superior valuation.
I would like to wait for PolyNovo to become profitable post its investment for growth, start offering multiple differentiated products, with sizable presence in OUS markets, to have higher conviction.


PolyNovo (PNV AU): Positive Momentum in U.S. Is Overshadowed by Cost Pressure and Lofty Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coloplast-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22329:1" rel="noopener">Coloplast A/S (COLOB DC)</a> is the global leader for ostomy and continence care, with 40% market share. It commands highly predictable revenue stream, with an industry leading margin of 30%+.</li>
<li>Coloplast’s €2 billion acquisition of Atos Medical, with its attractive growth profile and margin structure, represents a new long-term growth opportunity amid an underpenetrated market.  </li>
<li>Coloplast is seeing a recovery in its chronic care business, with growth in new patients in ostomy care is back to pre-COVID levels. Elective procedures are also resuming across regions.</li>
</ul>



Coloplast A/S (COLOB DC) is the global leader for ostomy and continence care, with 40% market share. It commands highly predictable revenue stream, with an industry leading margin of 30%+.
Coloplast’s €2 billion acquisition of Atos Medical, with its attractive growth profile and margin structure, represents a new long-term growth opportunity amid an underpenetrated market.  
Coloplast is seeing a recovery in its chronic care business, with growth in new patients in ostomy care is back to pre-COVID levels. Elective procedures are also resuming across regions.


Coloplast (COLOB DC): Adds Another Chronic Business Vertical; Recovering Base Business

<p>The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.</p>

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections. Additionally, 10-year yields in the US and Germany are breaking down below key support. These deteriorating market dynamics raise concerns of a deeper pullback, however other indicators remain largely positive. As a result, we continue to see a mixed, but overall constructive market. Actionable themes highlighted in today's report include Health Care and Real Estate.

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

<p>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.</p>

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical picture. While there is some room to move higher in the near-term, we are hesitant to get too excited because several major indexes have additional hurdles to jump. We highlight important technical levels across major averages including Europe/UK (STOXX 600), Hong Kong (Hang Seng), Japan (TOPIX), and several EM countries (China, Brazil, Russia, Taiwan, and India).  Finally, we highlight attractive opportunities within the Consumer Discretionary, Heath Care and Services sectors.

Denmark

Coloplast A/S develops and provides health care products and services. The Company manufactures products for ostomy, incontinence, mastectomy, wound healing, and skin care. Coloplast's research projects are carried out in cooperation with professional caregivers and user groups. The Company sells to health care professionals, dealers, and product users throughout the world.

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Coloplast A/S (COLOB DC)

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

$93 on $ACWI continues to be a key resistance that we have discussed since early-Jan as capping upside for 2023. Stick with defensives $IXJ $XLV...

Vermilion Research

PolyNovo (PNV AU): Positive Momentum in U.S. Is Overshadowed by Cost Pressure and Lofty Valuation

PolyNovo’s continuing expansion of sales team and pipeline progress are pushing up the operating expenses, thereby increasing loss for the company....

Tina Banerjee

Coloplast (COLOB DC): Adds Another Chronic Business Vertical; Recovering Base Business

Coloplast remains one of the most profitable medtech companies in Europe, with stable revenue growth. The company's acquisition of Atos Medical...

Tina Banerjee

Global Equity Strategy: Mixed Market Environment Continues As Yields Break Down

The Hang Seng, EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, and MSCI EAFE display bearish short-term inflections and 10-year yields in the US and Germany are...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Guarded Optimism

Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are decisively breaking above 1-month resistance on US-China trade war optimism, incrementally improving the technical...

Vermilion Research

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