Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail:<ul><li> Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth indicators helps support our increasingly bullish outlook.</li><li>Cyclical and growth Sectors are leadership. Within Consumer Discretionary we highlight Restaurants, and within Technology we highlight Semiconductors.</li><li>Within International Developed, overweight small-caps, Japan, and Norway.</li><li>Broad Emerging Market relative strength is deteriorating. Be selective.</li></ul>

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail: Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth indicators helps support our increasingly bullish outlook.Cyclical and growth Sectors are leadership. Within Consumer Discretionary we highlight Restaurants, and within Technology we highlight Semiconductors.Within International Developed, overweight small-caps, Japan, and Norway.Broad Emerging Market relative strength is deteriorating. Be selective.

Global Equity Strategy: ACWI and EM Testing Support

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries Brazil and India exhibit attractive setups, while Chile’sIPSA also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for some backing-and-filling of the USD, and (3) MSCI EM price and relative strength support levels continuing to hold, we see recent weakness as a buying opportunity.  The MSCI BRIC index has reasserted its leadership status. In addition to China, fellow BRIC countries Brazil and India exhibit attractive setups, while Chile’sIPSA also presents opportunities. Today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations across the EM universe, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights.

The MSCI ACWI and S&amp;P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a bullish trend change. Combine this with improving market internals and we are becoming incrementally more bullish. For the MSCI ACWI, one of the more concerning breadth indicators has been the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average. This indicator recently hit a higher high (see below, left), a positive development that confirms the market’s recent advance. In today's report we highlight opportunities within global Energy and Technology companies, two of our overweights. 

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

Emerging markets PM, economist, CFA charterholder

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Last Thursday (March 29) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> announced its 2017 full-year results. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose 38 times to CNY 24.7 bn, thanks mainly to higher oil and gas prices and lower depreciation, exploration, and interest expenses. This nevertheless fell short of the consensus estimate of CNY 30.9 bn (and my own estimate of CNY 28.5 bn) primarily because of a CNY 9.1 bn impairment charge and a US corporate tax cut-related write-off of CNY 3.4 bn in deferred tax assets…

Last Thursday (March 29) CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) announced its 2017 full-year results. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose 38 times to CNY 24.7 bn, thanks mainly to higher oil and gas prices and lower depreciation, exploration, and interest expenses. This nevertheless fell short of the consensus estimate of CNY 30.9 bn (and my own estimate of CNY 28.5 bn) primarily because of a CNY 9.1 bn impairment charge and a US corporate tax cut-related write-off of CNY 3.4 bn in deferred tax assets…

CNOOC Turns a Corner as Exploration Pays Off

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

Global Equity Strategy: ACWI and EM Testing Support

In our June International Strategy, we explore the following themes in detail: Early-stage MSCI ACWI uptrend combined with constructive breadth...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Emerging Markets Strategy: Attractive Setups in China, Brazil, India, and Chile

Recent USD strength has weighed on EM’s relative performance. Given (1) strength in commodity prices (sans precious metals), (2) the potential for...

Vermilion Research

Global Energy Shares Breaking Out; Technology Remains Attractive

The MSCI ACWI and S&P 500 have both achieved a higher high relative to mid-April prices, which we see as a potential early indication of a...

Vermilion Research

CNOOC Turns a Corner as Exploration Pays Off

Last Thursday (March 29) CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) announced its 2017 full-year results. Net profit attributable to shareholders rose 38 times to CNY 24.7...

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

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Market Cap (USDm)

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