Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 5th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight HK Connect flows for China Mobile, and CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 5th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight HK Connect flows for China Mobile, and CNOOC.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 5th): China Mobile, CNOOC

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We doubt if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a> can sustain good performance in 2024. On historical patterns, it has never sustained as one of HSI's best-performing stocks for two consecutive years. </li>
<li>Consensus growth forecasts of 4.4% and 4.3% for FY24-25 are likely wrong as this means FY25 will be the 5th straight year of growth. PetroChina does not behave like that. </li>
<li>Crude oil price has got back to the end-2022 level, but PetroChina's share price is still 50% higher. A return to their high correlation before 2023 will lead to underperformance. </li>
</ul>


We doubt if PetroChina (857 HK) can sustain good performance in 2024. On historical patterns, it has never sustained as one of HSI's best-performing stocks for two consecutive years. 
Consensus growth forecasts of 4.4% and 4.3% for FY24-25 are likely wrong as this means FY25 will be the 5th straight year of growth. PetroChina does not behave like that. 
Crude oil price has got back to the end-2022 level, but PetroChina's share price is still 50% higher. A return to their high correlation before 2023 will lead to underperformance. 


PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 29th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, and Tencent Holdings Limited.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 29th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, and Tencent Holdings Limited.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 29th): China Mobile, Tencent

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp. </li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp. 
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Dec 23):  STAY Long Hs Vs As, Wide Premia in Renewables Look Vulnerable

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.</li>
<li>Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis. Hs up vs As quite strongly. Liquid Hs even better.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$1.2bn of net IN-flows in the 3-day week to 29 Dec. Total flows were HK$88bn.
Bullish end to year for SOUTHBOUND owners but they did not mark the close. They were, however, big buyers of high-div SOEs.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 5th): China Mobile, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for China Mobile, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

Doubts arise over PetroChina's ability to sustain good performance in 2024 due to historical patterns, over-aggressive growth forecasts, and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 29th): China Mobile, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for China Mobile and Tencent Holdings Limited.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Dec 23): STAY Long Hs Vs As, Wide Premia in Renewables Look Vulnerable

Hs outperform their A-shares in the A/H pair universe last week. Liquid names outperform their As by 2+%. Pharmas and Communications do very well....

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows this week were light on a shortened 3-day week. High-div SOEs like Energy names and the large telcos were significantly...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 5th): China Mobile, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight Hong Kong connect flows for China Mobile, CNOOC.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

PetroChina (857 HK): An Interesting Contrarian View

​Doubts arise over PetroChina's ability to sustain good performance in 2024 due to historical patterns, over-aggressive growth forecasts, and a...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 29th): China Mobile, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for China Mobile and Tencent Holdings Limited.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Dec 23): STAY Long Hs Vs As, Wide Premia in Renewables Look Vulnerable

Hs outperform their A-shares in the A/H pair universe last week. Liquid names outperform their As by 2+%. Pharmas and Communications do very well....

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 29Dec23); CNOOC & Telcos to the BUY Side, Tracker Fund Sold Bigly

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows this week were light on a shortened 3-day week. High-div SOEs like Energy names and the large telcos were significantly...

Travis Lundy

Doubts arise over PetroChina's ability to sustain good performance in 2024 due to historical patterns, over-aggressive growth forecasts, and a...