Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li><em>The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.</em></li>
<li>Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.4bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Seemed somewhat cap-weighted. Not a pretty flow picture. </li>
<li>A-Shares sharply underperformed HK indices, but AH spreads didn't recover the prior week's disaster. That said, there WAS dip-buying this week on the worst hit, which is unusual recently.</li>
</ul>


The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 11.4bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Seemed somewhat cap-weighted. Not a pretty flow picture. 
A-Shares sharply underperformed HK indices, but AH spreads didn't recover the prior week's disaster. That said, there WAS dip-buying this week on the worst hit, which is unusual recently.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 26th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,578.2 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, health care, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 26th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,578.2 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, health care, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology.


Northbound Flows (Jul 26th): Zijin Mining, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With 70% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 5 constituents are in deletion zone.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.8bn (US$1.2bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. With multiple days ADV to trade on the changes and the recent short selling clampdown, there could be further outperformance.</li>
</ul>


With 70% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 5 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.8bn (US$1.2bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. With multiple days ADV to trade on the changes and the recent short selling clampdown, there could be further outperformance.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Outperforming (And How!)

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Ra / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There have been some changes to the SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs lists since our last insight.</li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
There have been some changes to the SSE 180 expected ADDs/DELs lists since our last insight.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.

<ul>
<li>SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We currently estimate one-way flows to be US$1.4bn and US$235mn for the SSE 50 and 180, respectively.</li>
</ul>


SSE 50 and SSE 180, respectively, aim to represent the performance of the 50 and 180 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the December 2024 index rebal event.
We currently estimate one-way flows to be US$1.4bn and US$235mn for the SSE 50 and 180, respectively.


Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Expected DELs Could Underperform Peers

China

CMOC Group Limited operates as a mineral mining and exploration company. The Company focuses on non-ferrous metal mining. CMOC Group specializes in mining and trading of base and rare metals.

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CMOC Group (603993 CH)

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

NORTHBOUND saw selling again, making the strong buying blip two weeks ago just that. Selling across the heavyweights as A-shares underperformed HK....

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Jul 26th): Zijin Mining, Moutai, Zhongji Innolight, Wuliangye, Boe Technology

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zijin Mining, Moutai, CATL, Zhongji Innolight,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Outperforming (And How!)

There could be 4-5 changes in Dec. Estimate one-way turnover is 6.5% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.8bn (US$1.2bn). The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: US$1.6bn+ One-Way; Some Changes to Expectations.

There could be US$1.4bn and US$240mn one-way flows, respectively, for the SSE 50 and SSE 180 December 2024 rebalances. Around 70% of the reference...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard SSE50/180 Dec 24: Some Expected DELs Could Underperform Peers

We see 5 changes for the SSE 50 index and 18 changes for the SSE 180 index. There are four more months for the reference period to end and our...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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