Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Equity markets have remained volatile, consolidating between the recent high in late January and the low on February 9th. While the market has yet to retest either the highs or the lows, we still see both as critical levels. With support levels holding, we retain our long-term bullish stance despite the expectation of continued volatility and consolidation. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable groups within Technology and Financials. Within Tech we focus on TE-01 and TE-02, our Large- and Mid-Cap Semiconductor Groups (respectively), and within Financials we highlight FN-34, our Electronic Exchanges/Markets Group.

Equity markets have remained volatile, consolidating between the recent high in late January and the low on February 9th. While the market has yet to retest either the highs or the lows, we still see both as critical levels. With support levels holding, we retain our long-term bullish stance despite the expectation of continued volatility and consolidation. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable groups within Technology and Financials. Within Tech we focus on TE-01 and TE-02, our Large- and Mid-Cap Semiconductor Groups (respectively), and within Financials we highlight FN-34, our Electronic Exchanges/Markets Group.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Heightened Volatility; Further Consolidation; Bullish Outlook Intact.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Traditional fundamentals within the legacy Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (HKEx) [388.HK] equities business continues on a positive upswing, with turnover steadily increasing;  * Launching a new iron ore futures contract, however, appears to be yet another foolish foray into the commodities space as HKEx continues to dig itself deeper into a hole with the London Metals Exchange (LME) business; and* HKEx has yet to earn a positive return on invested capital (ROIC) with the LME, by our calculation, and only nominal overall net returns since deal consummation. Given how HKEx is currently pressing to generate any form of revenue within this commodities unit, we fear that accountants and regulators will now push for a significant goodwill charge up to 2.2 years in pre-tax earnings, by our calculation.

* Traditional fundamentals within the legacy Hong Kong Exchanges &amp; Clearing (HKEx) [388.HK] equities business continues on a positive upswing, with turnover steadily increasing;  * Launching a new iron ore futures contract, however, appears to be yet another foolish foray into the commodities space as HKEx continues to dig itself deeper into a hole with the London Metals Exchange (LME) business; and* HKEx has yet to earn a positive return on invested capital (ROIC) with the LME, by our calculation, and only nominal overall net returns since deal consummation. Given how HKEx is currently pressing to generate any form of revenue within this commodities unit, we fear that accountants and regulators will now push for a significant goodwill charge up to 2.2 years in pre-tax earnings, by our calculation.    

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.</li>
<li>The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.</li>
<li>The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.</li>
<li>Overall, the US…</li>
</ul>


The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.
The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.
The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.
Overall, the US…


US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and October 2007 the ECB had a pretty impeccable record when it came to inflation targeting. CPI as measured by Eurostat oscillated between a low of 1.6% and a high of 2.5% and averaged 2.1%. However, 2007 seems a long time ago now and in the past decade or so CPI has been at 2% on just four occasions prior to today: on each of these CPI passed through 2%…

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and October 2007 the ECB had a pretty impeccable record when it came to inflation targeting. CPI as measured by Eurostat oscillated between a low of 1.6% and a high of 2.5% and averaged 2.1%. However, 2007 seems a long time ago now and in the past decade or so CPI has been at 2% on just four occasions prior to today: on each of these CPI passed through 2%…

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul>
<li>There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).</li>
<li>Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.</li>
<li>Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.</li>
</ul>We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…


There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again).
Global reflation trade over next few months is likely to continue.
Prime beneficiaries of global reflation trade in Asian market are financial, commodity, and infrastructure plays.
We were watching live (on TV) US President Trump's speech, which was addressed to the Congress last night (9 pm EST). This was the first formal speech by Trump after his inauguration speech on 1/20. Our first…

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

United States

CME Group Inc. operates a derivatives exchange that trades futures contracts and options on futures, interest rates, stock indexes, foreign exchange and commodities.  The Exchange brings together buyers and sellers of derivatives products on its trading floors, electronic trading platform, and through privately negotiated transactions that it clears.

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Cme Group Inc (CME US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Heightened Volatility; Further Consolidation; Bullish Outlook Intact.

Equity markets have remained volatile, consolidating between the recent high in late January and the low on February 9th. While the market has yet...

Vermilion Research

HKEx – Not Leaving Well Enough Alone

* Traditional fundamentals within the legacy Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEx) [388.HK] equities business continues on a positive upswing,...

Thomas J. Monaco

US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: Deutschland Über Alles?

Eurozone inflation announced today came in "on target" at 2% for the first time in 4 years!! To give credit where credit is due, between 2001 and...

Stewart Paterson

Asia Market Strategy: Is There No Stopping This Bull Run?

There was nothing new in Trump's speech last night, but the US stock market surged to new highs (again). Global reflation trade over next few...

Johannes Salim, CFA

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