Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

We follow up on an earlier note today on EM currencies as we extend the analysis to EM rates by comparing the impact on them during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

We follow up on an earlier note today on EM currencies as we extend the analysis to EM rates by comparing the impact on them during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 2

Chile's rate curve has bear-flattened as the central bank turned hawkish, pushing the short-end higher, while the long end recovered from extreme levels. We use the opportunity to recommend taking profits on our Chile 2s10s curve flattening trade.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Chile's rate curve has bear-flattened as the central bank turned hawkish, pushing the short-end higher, while the long end recovered from extreme levels. We use the opportunity to recommend taking profits on our Chile 2s10s curve flattening trade.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Take Profits on Recommendation as Chile’s Curve Bear Flattens

The spread between EM and US 10-year rates continues to widen even though the volatility of US rates has come off the peak. We see this as an opportunity and continue to recommend flatteners in EM as we see the risk premium in the long end as excessive in several countries.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

The spread between EM and US 10-year rates continues to widen even though the volatility of US rates has come off the peak. We see this as an opportunity and continue to recommend flatteners in EM as we see the risk premium in the long end as excessive in several countries.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM-US Rates Divergence Persists Despite Falling Volatility

Russia's rate curve is among the flattest in emerging markets currently. The main driver for the flattening has been the central bank front-loading rate hikes to address the surge in inflation. We expect the curve to steepen from the current extreme levels, but it is early to put on a steepener as the curve has historically continued to flatten until the central bank is done raising rates.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Russia's rate curve is among the flattest in emerging markets currently. The main driver for the flattening has been the central bank front-loading rate hikes to address the surge in inflation. We expect the curve to steepen from the current extreme levels, but it is early to put on a steepener as the curve has historically continued to flatten until the central bank is done raising rates.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM 10y rates market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among countries by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other countries based on their respective betas to an EM rates index.

Rates 10y Dashboard: Early to Put on a Steepener in Russia

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list the current trade recommendations that we make on a weekly basis and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 15 trade recommendations so far, of which 11 are in the money.

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list the current trade recommendations that we make on a weekly basis and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 15 trade recommendations so far, of which 11 are in the money.

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap – Jun 2021

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CLP 10Y (CHSWP10 CURNCY)

Rates 10y Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 2

We follow up on an earlier note today on EM FX as we extend the analysis to EM rates. We compare the impact on EM rates in this year's reflationary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Take Profits on Recommendation as Chile’s Curve Bear Flattens

We recommend taking profits on our Chile 2s10s curve flattening recommendation as the short end has moved higher with the central bank turning...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: EM-US Rates Divergence Persists Despite Falling Volatility

The spread between EM and US 10-year rates continues to widen even though the volatility of US rates has come off the peak. We see this as an...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Rates 10y Dashboard: Early to Put on a Steepener in Russia

We expect Russia's curve to steepen from the extreme levels, but it is early to put on a steepener as the curve has historically continued to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Alpha Bites: Monthly Trade Ideas Recap – Jun 2021

In our monthly trade ideas recap note, we list our current recommendations and discuss whether any need to be closed. We have made a total of 15...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)