European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/clinigen-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21734:1" rel="noopener">Clinigen (CLIN LN)</a> was considered a takeover candidate (Elliot, 10.67% stake, was pushing for change). The offer takes advantage of a June profit warning. The market expects a sweetened bid.</li>
<li>The offer price represents 41% premium and a deal value of £1,177.63 (£1.2 billion as reported) and EV of £1,513 million, 12.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 16.2x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>My 945p TP (blended average of DCF and comps-based 12.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA) represents a 6% upside to the offer price, including final dividend. Long CLIN LN.</li>
</ul>



Clinigen (CLIN LN) was considered a takeover candidate (Elliot, 10.67% stake, was pushing for change). The offer takes advantage of a June profit warning. The market expects a sweetened bid.
The offer price represents 41% premium and a deal value of £1,177.63 (£1.2 billion as reported) and EV of £1,513 million, 12.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 16.2x Fwd P/E.
My 945p TP (blended average of DCF and comps-based 12.4x EV/Fwd EBITDA) represents a 6% upside to the offer price, including final dividend. Long CLIN LN.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Corrections across global ex-US markets continue to limit attractive investment opportunities from both a price and relative strength perspective.  We provide a recap and outlook for global equity markets and highlight individual opportunities across various markets within the Health Care, Communications and Transportation sectors.

Corrections across global ex-US markets continue to limit attractive investment opportunities from both a price and relative strength perspective.  We provide a recap and outlook for global equity markets and highlight individual opportunities across various markets within the Health Care, Communications and Transportation sectors.

Global Strategy: Carnage Continuation Amid Turkey Turmoil and US Dollar Breakout

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

United Kingdom

Clinigen Group plc is a global specialty pharmaceuticals and pharmaceutical services business dedicated to serving patients, the medical community and the healthcare industry.

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