Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> reported Q3 earnings, and a BIG buyback.</li>
<li>It is a VERY BIG BUYBACK at up to 75mm shares (25.61% of shares out), with an allocation of up to ¥40bn (which is ~22.1% at last price).</li>
<li>The buyback is to be executed over the next year. Buyback structure (undisclosed) matters and shareholder structure matters too. There is a big short. <em>This could get really interesting.</em>
</li>
</ul>


Today, Citizen Watch (7762 JP) reported Q3 earnings, and a BIG buyback.
It is a VERY BIG BUYBACK at up to 75mm shares (25.61% of shares out), with an allocation of up to ¥40bn (which is ~22.1% at last price).
The buyback is to be executed over the next year. Buyback structure (undisclosed) matters and shareholder structure matters too. There is a big short. This could get really interesting.



Absolutely GINORMOUS Citizen Watch (7762 JP) Buyback

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div style="text-align: center;"><strong>• NET GAIN • </strong></div><div><div class="content-caption">
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/590/original/2021-02-19_07-20-52.png?1613686864" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189590"></figure><p></p></section> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><div>
<p><strong>NET GAIN</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/591/original/2021-02-19_07-29-59.png?1613687413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189591"></figure></section><p><strong>TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM)</strong> - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/595/original/2021-02-19_07-38-34.png?1613687927" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189595"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/596/original/2021-02-19_07-40-09.png?1613688021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189596"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   </p></section><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/597/original/2021-02-19_08-02-24.png?1613689355" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189597"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/694/original/2021-02-19_16-02-06.png?1613718138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189694"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>SECTOR BREAKDOWN</strong> - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>,<strong> Other Consumer Products</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong>, and <strong>Building Materials.</strong> The RRS 'losers' are <strong>Utilities</strong>, <strong>Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,</strong><strong>Retail</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong>.  </p>
</div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/700/original/2021-02-19_16-05-32.png?1613718344" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189700"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/701/original/2021-02-19_16-06-12.png?1613718383" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189701"></figure></section><hr>
</div><section></section><div><div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.</p>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div></div>

• NET GAIN • 
 Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM) - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.
FORECASTS - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. 
POSITIVE MOMENTUM - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are Other Commercial Products, Autos, Other Consumer Products, Metals, and Building Materials. The RRS 'losers' are Utilities, Internet Content &amp; Services, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,Retail, and Healthcare.  



In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.




🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/640/original/2020-08-15_16-13-14.png?1597475614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152640"></figure><p><strong>DAMP THE TORPEDOES</strong> - After four additional days of results and revisions announcements, our aggregate trailing and forecast profit data are mainly unchanged. In the spirit of the admirable Admiral Farragut at Mobile Bay in 1864, this <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-tired" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41562" rel="noopener">'tired</a>' summer market ploughed upwards, adding another 4.7% and confounding many short positions. For moving average aficionados, a 50/200 gross is near. The previous two such crosses were buying opportunities, although the last proved to be short-lived.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/692/original/2020-08-16_13-17-04.png?1597551458" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152692"></figure><p><strong>-30%</strong> - For those still keeping 'score', trailing aggregate earnings are 29% below August 2019, and the pace of the decline in both revenues and earnings is accelerating. Net Income is 42% lower year-on-year and has declined 25% since March.  With no additional restrictions on social activity, the current quarter should see a recovery in quarter-on-quarter trends, at least for domestic companies. For export-orientated industries, the slump in export volumes and the rise in inventories is continuing. Industrial output has reached levels last seen briefly in 2009 and before that in the 1980s. Companies are responding by cutting SG&amp;A expenses, capex (especially overseas), and even staff. Households are following suit in anticipation of lower levels of income and direct financial support from the government. Japan needs a much weaker yen; however, the Bank of Japan has run out of ammunition. The economic recovery will not live up to the market's current level of enthusiasm.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/641/original/2020-08-15_16-13-54.png?1597475653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152641"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"></figure><p><strong>SECTOR TTM RESULTS</strong> - Three service Sectors - <strong>Transport</strong>, <strong>Restaurants</strong>, and <strong>Consumer Services</strong> have borne the brunt of the COVID-recession, while <strong>Autos</strong>,<strong> Metals</strong>, and<strong> Machinery</strong> have fared the worst amongst manufacturers. For the first time since compiling this data, some Sectors are loss-making in aggregate. At the other 'end' the <strong>Telecoms</strong>,<strong> Internet</strong>, <strong>IT</strong> and <strong>Electrical Equipment</strong> Sectors have all seen improving margins, as well as <strong>Healthcare</strong>,<strong> Non-Bank Finance</strong> (mainly Insurance), and<strong> Building Materials</strong>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/642/original/2020-08-15_16-15-40.png?1597475766" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152642"></figure><p><strong>SECTOR RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES</strong> - Ourscoring methodology incorporates both results and revision and adds a momentum factor. Accordingly, only three Sectors have positive scores - <strong>Internet</strong>, <strong>IT</strong>, and <strong>Non-Bank Finance</strong>. For contrarians, the momentum recovery in the<strong> Energy</strong> Sector is of particular note.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/643/original/2020-08-15_16-20-10.png?1597476030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152643"></figure><div></div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>•BEST &amp; WORST 14th AUGUST •</strong></p>
</div><div>
<p>The 'best' of Friday's large-cap announcements came from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/optim-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7737:1" rel="noopener">OPTiM Corp (3694 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oisix-ra-daichi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1" rel="noopener">Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP)</a>; the 'worst' were from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen (7762 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a>.  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/711/original/2020-08-16_15-56-45.png?1597561030" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152711"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/712/original/2020-08-16_15-59-19.png?1597561169" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152712"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/713/original/2020-08-16_16-00-11.png?1597561221" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152713"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/152/714/original/2020-08-16_16-01-14.png?1597561301" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="152714"></figure><div></div>
</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong> 54%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>46%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and 59<strong>%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>35%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>217 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 14% Neutral / 54% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.3 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.3% Quarter YoY / +0.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: </strong>-1.2 ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 35%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>61 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 39% Positive / 15% Neutral / 46% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 41% Positive / 0% Neutral / 59% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.8 points</li>
</ul></div>

DAMP THE TORPEDOES - After four additional days of results and revisions announcements, our aggregate trailing and forecast profit data are mainly unchanged. In the spirit of the admirable Admiral Farragut at Mobile Bay in 1864, this 'tired' summer market ploughed upwards, adding another 4.7% and confounding many short positions. For moving average aficionados, a 50/200 gross is near. The previous two such crosses were buying opportunities, although the last proved to be short-lived.-30% - For those still keeping 'score', trailing aggregate earnings are 29% below August 2019, and the pace of the decline in both revenues and earnings is accelerating. Net Income is 42% lower year-on-year and has declined 25% since March.  With no additional restrictions on social activity, the current quarter should see a recovery in quarter-on-quarter trends, at least for domestic companies. For export-orientated industries, the slump in export volumes and the rise in inventories is continuing. Industrial output has reached levels last seen briefly in 2009 and before that in the 1980s. Companies are responding by cutting SG&amp;A expenses, capex (especially overseas), and even staff. Households are following suit in anticipation of lower levels of income and direct financial support from the government. Japan needs a much weaker yen; however, the Bank of Japan has run out of ammunition. The economic recovery will not live up to the market's current level of enthusiasm.SECTOR TTM RESULTS - Three service Sectors - Transport, Restaurants, and Consumer Services have borne the brunt of the COVID-recession, while Autos, Metals, and Machinery have fared the worst amongst manufacturers. For the first time since compiling this data, some Sectors are loss-making in aggregate. At the other 'end' the Telecoms, Internet, IT and Electrical Equipment Sectors have all seen improving margins, as well as Healthcare, Non-Bank Finance (mainly Insurance), and Building Materials. SECTOR RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - Ourscoring methodology incorporates both results and revision and adds a momentum factor. Accordingly, only three Sectors have positive scores - Internet, IT, and Non-Bank Finance. For contrarians, the momentum recovery in the Energy Sector is of particular note.

•BEST &amp; WORST 14th AUGUST •

The 'best' of Friday's large-cap announcements came from OPTiM Corp (3694 JP) and Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP); the 'worst' were from Citizen (7762 JP) and Asahi Intecc (7747 JP).  More extensive coverage follows in the DETAIL section below.



DAILY STATS
PERCENTAGES - 54% of quarterly results, 46% of annual forecasts/revisions and 59% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 35% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.217 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 31% Positive / 14% Neutral / 54% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.3 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.3% Quarter YoY / +0.2% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2 ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 35%
61 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 39% Positive / 15% Neutral / 46% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 41% Positive / 0% Neutral / 59% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 14th August -  Damn the Torpedoes

<p><strong>FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS</strong> -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/225/original/2020-06-21_08-34-07.png?1592698079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141225"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>JAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4..</strong> - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener"> Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/223/original/2020-06-21_08-51-12.png?1592697088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141223"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD</strong> - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.</p>

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.Source: Japan AnalyticsJAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.Source: Japan Analytics..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE</strong> •</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/178/original/2019-09-06_09-42-35.png?1567730614" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98178"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>INTRODUCTION </strong>- The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at<strong> +4</strong> &amp; <strong>-2</strong> and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lasertec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4126:1" rel="noopener">Lasertec (6920 JP)</a> has just joined <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldwin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:410:1" rel="noopener">Goldwin (8111 JP)</a> in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.</strong></p></div><div></div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/046/original/2019-09-05_12-46-46.png?1567655232" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98046"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>STATISTICS</strong> - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/055/original/2019-09-05_13-06-30.png?1567656423" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RPS 'TOPS'</strong> - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.</p><p><strong>RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken (9987 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomart-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1" rel="noopener">Infomart (2492 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichirei-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7168:1" rel="noopener">Nichirei (2871 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/096/original/2019-09-05_16-25-39.png?1567668352" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98096"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/097/original/2019-09-05_16-27-09.png?1567668441" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98097"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/098/original/2019-09-05_16-28-42.png?1567668548" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98098"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/099/original/2019-09-05_16-30-29.png?1567668640" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98099"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •</strong></p><div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/056/original/2019-09-05_13-12-52.png?1567656806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98056"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>
</div><p><strong>RPS 'BOTTOMS'</strong> - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the<strong> REITs</strong> Sector and the continuing demise of <strong>Regional Banks</strong>.</p><p><strong>RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION</strong> - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) </a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/100/original/2019-09-05_16-35-47.png?1567668972" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/098/102/original/2019-09-05_16-36-50.png?1567669047" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="98102"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p>As we noted in our June <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-relative-price-scores-overbought-oversold-companies-june-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30393" rel="noopener">Insight: -</a></p><blockquote><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/line-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22772:1" rel="noopener">LINE (3938 JP)</a></strong>- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and <strong>the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year,</strong> there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   </p></blockquote><p>In the <strong>DETAIL </strong>section below, we list the current<strong> Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5</strong>), <strong>Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5)</strong> and <strong>Oversold (RPS &lt;-2)</strong> stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.</p>

• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •Source: Japan AnalyticsINTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by comparing the current deviation with the mean absolute deviation of monthly and daily relative share prices. As all companies are thus on a comparable scale, 'Overbought' and 'Oversold' outliers and changes in scoring can reveal short-term and longer-term trading opportunities. Company outlier thresholds are set at +4 &amp; -2 and equate to the top and bottom first-to-second percentiles of historical observations from which mean reversion takes a matter of months. RPS outliers with a Score of greater than 10.0 are rare outside of the 2000 tech 'bubble'. Lasertec (6920 JP) has just joined Goldwin (8111 JP) in being only the second large-cap RPS 'ten-baggers' in the last twenty years. This insight updates our list of Overbought and Oversold companies, reviews the best and worst-performing companies in terms of RPS over the last three months and adds some specific comments on stocks on each category.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTATISTICS - Currently, of the 3,706 listed companies for which monthly RPS data is available, 81 companies are 'Overbought', and 133 are 'Oversold' - 2.45% and 3.8%, respectively of the total. For the 737 companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b, there are 44 'Overbought' and 37 'Oversold' companies, 6% and 5%, respectively.• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'TOPS' •Source: Japan AnalyticsRPS 'TOPS' - In the last two years, 388 companies have achieved an RPS of '4' or more and the average Overbought 'persistence' is 42 days. 1.26% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of over 4. For companies with a market capitalisation higher than ¥100b, the numbers are 95 companies and 74 days - demonstrating the superior persistence of large capitalisation companies in this regard. The chart above highlights the track record of all 95 large caps which are some point were Overbought in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the extreme outlier status of Goldwin and Lasertec.RPS NEGATIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some examples of RPS mean reversion in the last three months have been Suzuken (9987 JP), Infomart (2492 JP), Nichirei (2871 JP), and Fancl (4921 JP). Source: Japan Analytics• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE 'BOTTOMS' •
Source: Japan Analytics
RPS 'BOTTOMS' - 259 companies have seen their RPS fall to '-2' or below in the last two years, and the average Oversold 'persistence' is 83 days. 1.46% of the total of 1.94 million traded stock days were by companies with an RPS of less than -2.  For larger capitalisation companies, the numbers are 79 companies and 94 days. The chart above highlights the track record of the 79 large caps which are some point were Oversold in the last twenty-four months and illustrates the strong recovery in the REITs Sector and the continuing demise of Regional Banks.RPS POSITIVE MEAN REVERSION - Some recent examples of positive RPS mean reversions are Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) and LINE (3938 JP).Source: Japan AnalyticsAs we noted in our June Insight: -LINE (3938 JP)- Line has performed poorly since being featured in last year's Sohn Conference and has had negative and worsening Operating Income for each of the previous five quarters. Although there is a possibility of a double-bottom RPS 'bounce' and the company is now the most-Oversold non-financial large-cap over one year, there are no fundamental reasons to own the shares.   In the DETAIL section below, we list the current Very Overbought (RPS&gt;5), Too-Late-To-Buy (RPS &gt;4&lt;5) and Oversold (RPS &lt;-2) stocks as well as the most substantial three-month positive and negative changes in RPS.

🇯🇵 Japan • September Relative Price Scores - Life at the Poles Part 2: Companies

Japan

Citizen Watch Co., Ltd. operates watch production businesses. The Company produces electronic watches and other products. Citizen Watch conducts businesses in Japan.

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Citizen Watch (7762 JP)

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• RELATIVE PRICE SCORE •INTRODUCTION - The Relative Price Score (RPS) is a measure of stock price performance relative to TOPIX calculated by...

Campbell Gunn

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