Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-February 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> announced another buyback. It had averaged nearly two small buybacks a year for the past four years for a total of ¥10bn.</li>
<li>This new one was ¥40bn, which assuming a 20% share price jump was 12% of ADV for a year. Bigly! We got the 20% jump, then not much more.</li>
<li>But Citizen has been buying fiercely. In the first 25 days of trading they averaged 25.8% of volume and bought back 11.5% of shares out. There's a story here. </li>
</ul>


In mid-February 2023, Citizen Watch (7762 JP) announced another buyback. It had averaged nearly two small buybacks a year for the past four years for a total of ¥10bn.
This new one was ¥40bn, which assuming a 20% share price jump was 12% of ADV for a year. Bigly! We got the 20% jump, then not much more.
But Citizen has been buying fiercely. In the first 25 days of trading they averaged 25.8% of volume and bought back 11.5% of shares out. There's a story here. 


Citizen Watch (7762) : Super-Aggressive Buyback Likely Ending Soon - Beware of Risks Both Ways

<ul>
<li>Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.</li>
<li>Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in <em>ad hoc</em> methodology.</li>
<li>Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.</li>
</ul>


Last Friday, the FFW changes for the TOPIX July Free Float Weight Review were announced. There have also been other recent announcements creating flows on 30 July.
Some of these other recent announcements represent a possible change in ad hoc methodology.
Total Flow for 30 July is ~$3.3bn a side driven by selling flows (3/4 of the buy flows are reverse funding). $2.1bn of selling is &gt; 3 days ADV.


July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.</li>
<li>If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.</li>
<li>If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) rallied +27% in the first 6 months of 2023. 6 months closed up, July closed (barely) down. The index can rise further in Aug/Sep.
If August is down, a LONG opportunity: look at support prices between 32391 and 30600,  good probability to see the market going higher from there.
If rallying in August, Nikkei could rise between +1.73% (33745) and +3.29% (34265). Continuation of the rally into September could reach higher prices but will encounter resistance at +8.29% (35922).


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Beta Roars back as SPX regains 4100 support; All SPX sector positive(ex-Energy); CPI in focus as US 2Yr Yields still at 4.5%; Fed Pause or Acceleration-is the question</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.0% vs Cash; Yen Weakens to 132.45 vs US;  JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes things up with Massive Buyback</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Buybacks been been certainly improving in Japan. But this action from Citizen Watch takes it to another level.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Beta Roars back as SPX regains 4100 support; All SPX sector positive(ex-Energy); CPI in focus as US 2Yr Yields still at 4.5%; Fed Pause or Acceleration-is the question
JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.0% vs Cash; Yen Weakens to 132.45 vs US;  JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes things up with Massive Buyback
DAILY NUGGET.  Buybacks been been certainly improving in Japan. But this action from Citizen Watch takes it to another level.


Good Morning Japan |Beta BACK-Ahead of CPI; Citizen Watch LEADS=>Massive Buyback; Toyota EV Shift?

Japan

Citizen Watch Co., Ltd. operates watch production businesses. The Company produces electronic watches and other products. Citizen Watch conducts businesses in Japan.

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Citizen Watch (7762 JP)

Citizen Watch (7762) : Super-Aggressive Buyback Likely Ending Soon - Beware of Risks Both Ways

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July TOPIX FFW Rebal - Bigger Than Expected

The TOPIX July FFW Review is more interesting than it would appear at first glance. There are some trades to do too. Watch Rakuten, Nippon Paint,...

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JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories

MONTHLY Trend Pattern Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index: after 6 months up in a row and +27% gains, where is the index going next? Find support...

Nico Rosti

Good Morning Japan |Beta BACK-Ahead of CPI; Citizen Watch LEADS=>Massive Buyback; Toyota EV Shift?

JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes things up with Massive Buyback. JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes...

Mark Chadwick

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