Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Tax Loss Carryforwards Drive Bottom Line: Bank of America (BAC.US) [BAC] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 9.0 bn, increasing USD 1.4 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. The USD 1.2 bn usage of tax loss carryforwards was the sole reason BAC’s 2Q21 bottom-line exceeded that of 1Q21. If BAC were taxed at the 1Q21 rate, the bottom-line result would have been closer to USD 7.1 bn or USD 500 mn (6.6%) lower on a linked quarter basis; and*BAC’s Credit Quality Best Of Money Centers: We note that net new NPLs decelerated to USD 184 mn or 13.9% on an annualized basis – far better than the USD 957 mn or 74.8% posted in 1Q21. To put this result into perspective, JPM and Citigroup each reported large increases net new NPLs on a linked quarter basis of 177% and 48%, respectively. BAC would appear to have a very comfortable reserve cushion given the run rate in net new NPLs.

*Tax Loss Carryforwards Drive Bottom Line: Bank of America (BAC.US) [BAC] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 9.0 bn, increasing USD 1.4 bn (18.6%) linked quarter. The USD 1.2 bn usage of tax loss carryforwards was the sole reason BAC’s 2Q21 bottom-line exceeded that of 1Q21. If BAC were taxed at the 1Q21 rate, the bottom-line result would have been closer to USD 7.1 bn or USD 500 mn (6.6%) lower on a linked quarter basis; and*BAC’s Credit Quality Best Of Money Centers: We note that net new NPLs decelerated to USD 184 mn or 13.9% on an annualized basis – far better than the USD 957 mn or 74.8% posted in 1Q21. To put this result into perspective, JPM and Citigroup each reported large increases net new NPLs on a linked quarter basis of 177% and 48%, respectively. BAC would appear to have a very comfortable reserve cushion given the run rate in net new NPLs.  

*Weaker Result Across Almost All Geographic Segments: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 6.2 bn, decreasing USD 1.7 bn (22.0%) linked quarter. On operating basis, Citi posted results of USD 6.0 bn, USD 1.5 bn (93.3%) ahead of 1Q21 numbers. Negative operating jaws (revenues down 8.7% and costs up 1.1%) and weakness in both Global Consumer and Institutional businesses broke Citi this quarter; and*Credit Weaker But Coverage Strong:  In light of NCOs, net new NPLs amount to USD 616 mn or increasing at the same exact pace as 1Q21 at 48.0% on an annualized basis – although not nearly as bad as JPM’s 177% increase. While reserve cover remains strong in aggregate, credit degradation appears to still be on the rise going forward at Citi. That being said, despite the elevated increase, Citi still appears likely to continue down the road of reserve releases.

*Weaker Result Across Almost All Geographic Segments: Citigroup (C.US) [Citi] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 6.2 bn, decreasing USD 1.7 bn (22.0%) linked quarter. On operating basis, Citi posted results of USD 6.0 bn, USD 1.5 bn (93.3%) ahead of 1Q21 numbers. Negative operating jaws (revenues down 8.7% and costs up 1.1%) and weakness in both Global Consumer and Institutional businesses broke Citi this quarter; and*Credit Weaker But Coverage Strong:  In light of NCOs, net new NPLs amount to USD 616 mn or increasing at the same exact pace as 1Q21 at 48.0% on an annualized basis – although not nearly as bad as JPM’s 177% increase. While reserve cover remains strong in aggregate, credit degradation appears to still be on the rise going forward at Citi. That being said, despite the elevated increase, Citi still appears likely to continue down the road of reserve releases.

*Troubling Result: J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM.US) [JPM] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 11.9 bn, declining USD 2.4 bn (16.4%) linked quarter, as four out of five business units posted bottom-line declines pushing overall revenues lower USD 1.6 bn (5.0%). On a core operating basis, JPM’s results declined somewhat less – down USD 2.2 bn or 15.3% over the period. Results were weak almost across the board; and*Credit Quality Reversing Previous Gains: We calculate that net new NPLs linked quarter grew USD 4.9 bn bn or 177.3% on an annualized basis – a far cry from the 22.2% and 0.2% increase at 1Q21 and 4Q20, respectively. While JPM would appear on its face to be well-provided for, provision releases now appear to be coming to an end. If the current uptick in net new NPLs is here to stay, JPM would appear light on reserves in the neighborhood of USD 7.0 bn or 50% of quarterly PBT.

*Troubling Result: J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co (JPM.US) [JPM] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of USD 11.9 bn, declining USD 2.4 bn (16.4%) linked quarter, as four out of five business units posted bottom-line declines pushing overall revenues lower USD 1.6 bn (5.0%). On a core operating basis, JPM’s results declined somewhat less – down USD 2.2 bn or 15.3% over the period. Results were weak almost across the board; and*Credit Quality Reversing Previous Gains: We calculate that net new NPLs linked quarter grew USD 4.9 bn bn or 177.3% on an annualized basis – a far cry from the 22.2% and 0.2% increase at 1Q21 and 4Q20, respectively. While JPM would appear on its face to be well-provided for, provision releases now appear to be coming to an end. If the current uptick in net new NPLs is here to stay, JPM would appear light on reserves in the neighborhood of USD 7.0 bn or 50% of quarterly PBT. 

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

US markets were mixed with S&amp;P posting modest gains of 0.1% while Nasdaq slipped 0.2%. Citi and Wells Fargo reported strong earnings while BofA missed expectations even as the combined earnings of Citi, Wells, BofA and JPMC totaled $33bn. Consumer Staples and Real Estate up 0.9 % and IT up 0.7% provided support to the indices while Energy down 2.9% was a drag. US 10Y Treasury yields dipped 6bp to 1.34% after Fed Chair Powell said that the central bank will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities and that the Fed will ensure monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy. European indices closed lower – DAX, FTSE and CAC were down 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Eurostat data revealed that the euro zone industrial output fell by 1% vs. expectations of 0.2%. US IG CDS spreads were flat while HY tightened 1.7bp. EU main and crossover CDS spreads widened 0.2bp and 1.2bp respectively. Brazil’s Bovespa was up 0.2%. Saudi TASI and Abu Dhabi’s ADX were up 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. Asian markets are having a mixed start as traders await the Chinese growth data. The HSI and Shanghai are up 0.5% and 0.1% respectively while Nikkei and Singapore’s STI are down 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 1.9bp tighter. It’s a busy Thursday for the Asian primary markets with nine new bond deals including 5 from Chinese property developers.

9 New Deals Incl. Kaisa, Agile, R&F; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainer...

*Competitor Call Confirms Business Is Dead: A competitor hosted a conference call with the management of HSBC Holdings plc (5.HK/HSBA.LN) [HSBC]. Much of the discussion centered on Hong Kong/Asia, where net interest income remains under pressure due to low spreads, credit remains benign, and now Wealth Management is again in focus; and    *Elephant In Room Not Discussed: CET 1 was 15.9% at 1Q21, and the Group continues to aim for between 14.0% -14.5%. Unfortunately there was no mention nor even a question on its US franchise, HSBC North America (HSBCNA), which if sold or even managed properly could would easily allow HSBC to realize its CET1 goal  - given the losses management still needs to take on that mess.

*Competitor Call Confirms Business Is Dead: A competitor hosted a conference call with the management of HSBC Holdings plc (5.HK/HSBA.LN) [HSBC]. Much of the discussion centered on Hong Kong/Asia, where net interest income remains under pressure due to low spreads, credit remains benign, and now Wealth Management is again in focus; and    *Elephant In Room Not Discussed: CET 1 was 15.9% at 1Q21, and the Group continues to aim for between 14.0% -14.5%. Unfortunately there was no mention nor even a question on its US franchise, HSBC North America (HSBCNA), which if sold or even managed properly could would easily allow HSBC to realize its CET1 goal  - given the losses management still needs to take on that mess.

HSBC Holdings Plc – Head Still Buried In The Sand

United States

Citigroup Inc. is a diversified financial services holding company that provides a broad range of financial services to consumer and corporate customers. The Company services include investment banking, retail brokerage, corporate banking, and cash management products and services. Citigroup serves customers globally.

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Citigroup Inc (C US)

Bank of America - Brian’s Song

Bank of America: USD 1.2 bn usage of tax loss carryforwards was the sole reason BAC’s 2Q21 results exceeded 1Q21. Net new NPLs decelerated from...

Thomas J. Monaco

Citigroup – Janes’ Pain

Citigroup: Citi reported a 22.0% QOQ 2Q21 bottom-line decline from negative operating jaws and weakness in Global Consumer and Institutional. Net...

Thomas J. Monaco

J.P. Morgan & Co. – Not Good Jamie

J.P. Morgan: JPM reported a QOQ decline in 2Q21 in bottom-line of 16.4%. Previous credit quality gains have reversed, leading us to question...

Thomas J. Monaco

9 New Deals Incl. Kaisa, Agile, R&F; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainer...

US markets were mixed with S&P posting modest gains of 0.1% while Nasdaq slipped 0.2%. Citi and Wells Fargo reported strong earnings while BofA...

BondEvalue

HSBC Holdings Plc – Head Still Buried In The Sand

HSBC HOLDINGS: A competitor call with management centered on benign Hong Kong/Asia. The Group aim is a CET1 of 14-14.5%. No mention HSBC North...

Thomas J. Monaco

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