Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point</li>
<li>Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened</li>
<li>Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. This report elaborates on this main point
Last week (10/31/23) we discussed how the $SPX and $QQQ did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, that's what happened
Additionally, we discussed how risk/reward favored buyers with the $IWM testing 1.5-year support at $162-$163, a logical spot for small-caps to bounce, especially when we considering persistent bullish breadth divergences.


Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

<ul>
<li>Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.</li>
<li>Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.</li>
<li>Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.</li>
</ul>


Equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish SPX trend.
Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640.
Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would likely lead to precipitous declines. However, if supports hold, this is where risk/reward is skewed in favor of buyers.


S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

United States

Citi Trends Inc., is a value-priced retailer of urban fashion apparel and accessories for the entire family.  The Company offers quality, branded merchandise for men, women, and children including products from nationally recognized brands.

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Citi Trends Inc (CTRN US)

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? DXY and Treasury Yields Breaking Key Supports

Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More?; $DXY and Treasury Yields $TNX $TYX Breaking Key Supports, several other reasons why we...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support; Downgrading Discretionary to Market, Materials to Underweight

Unchanged outlook: equities not yet out of the woods, but as long as the $SPX is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback....

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

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