ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ciputra-development-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5513:1" rel="noopener">Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)</a> continued to book strong marketing sales in 1H2024 and looks well on track to meet or beat its FY2024E guidance with a strong pipeline of projects.</li>
<li>CTRA has the most geographically diversified portfolios in the sector and operates an asset-light joint operating scheme strategy allowing for faster expansion and a good portion of recurrent rental income. </li>
<li>The VAT exemption program looks set to continue to drive residential demand in 2H2024 with CTRA riding the affordability wave having also repositioned its target market. </li>
</ul>



Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) continued to book strong marketing sales in 1H2024 and looks well on track to meet or beat its FY2024E guidance with a strong pipeline of projects.
CTRA has the most geographically diversified portfolios in the sector and operates an asset-light joint operating scheme strategy allowing for faster expansion and a good portion of recurrent rental income. 
The VAT exemption program looks set to continue to drive residential demand in 2H2024 with CTRA riding the affordability wave having also repositioned its target market. 


Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ) - Riding the Affordability Wave

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

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<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index April rebalance ended 31 March. The changes should be announced later this week, becoming effective after the close on 30 April.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 3 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
All the potential changes have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers and some stocks will be impacted more than others.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Apr 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.</li><li>VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).</li><li>We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CTRA booked resilient 2Q24 pre-sales, supporting 1H24 to form 55/53% of mgmt/our FY24F, with above-expected sales from Serpong Elaia.VAT-exempted products rose to 43% of marketing sales, which we estimate to translate into ~Rp800bn net profit (35% to our FY24F).We reiterate our Buy rating (TP Rp1,700); CTRA is poised to benefit from higher landed-residential demand and falling interest rate sentiment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Landed-Residential to Remain a Key Pillar for 2H24 Marketing Sales

<ul><li>We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.</li><li>Our channel check on Elaia Serpong shows a potential Rp270-300bn pre-sales in 2Q24. We raise our overall FY24F est. by 17% to Rp11.5tr.</li><li>We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700 (assuming slightly higher disc. to RNAV of 52%); CTRA is our sector pick.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe CTRA will be able to maintain its strong pre-sales trend in 2H24 (1H24 est. +3% yoy), driven by its vast landed-residential projects.Our channel check on Elaia Serpong shows a potential Rp270-300bn pre-sales in 2Q24. We raise our overall FY24F est. by 17% to Rp11.5tr.We resume coverage with a Buy rating and RNAV-based TP of Rp1,700 (assuming slightly higher disc. to RNAV of 52%); CTRA is our sector pick.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ciputra Development - Expect Strong Marketing Sales Trend to Continue in 2H24

Cross Asset Strategy

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<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

Indonesia

PT Ciputra Development Tbk develops and sells real estate including office spaces, shopping centers, and related facilities as well as industrial estates. The Company also designs, develops, and maintains housing facilities including golf courses, clubs, restaurants, recreational places, and related facilities.

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Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ)