Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>Asia is leading EM higher.  In this week's Chart Book, we highlight the following themes and actionable charts:</p><p> </p><ul><li><strong>Overweight Asia. </strong>In today’s report we highlight a broad array of actionable names within the Asia region ... <em>see pages 3-6</em></li><li><strong>Indian banks are breaking out.</strong> India’s state banks broke out last week in response to the government’s announcement of a $32.5 billion recapitalization plan. Actionable ideas: Punjab National Bank (532461-IN), State Bank of India (500112-IN), ICICI Bank (532174-IN)... <em>see page 2</em></li><li><strong>Leading Sectors</strong>. EM sectors exhibiting attractive relative strength trends include: consumer discretionary, energy, financials, health care, materials, and tech. This (mostly) cyclical line-up supports a risk-on outlook. When defensive sectors exhibit improving relative strength, <em>then </em>we’ll turn cautious on EM’s advance.</li></ul>

Asia is leading EM higher.  In this week's Chart Book, we highlight the following themes and actionable charts: Overweight Asia. In today’s report we highlight a broad array of actionable names within the Asia region ... see pages 3-6Indian banks are breaking out. India’s state banks broke out last week in response to the government’s announcement of a $32.5 billion recapitalization plan. Actionable ideas: Punjab National Bank (532461-IN), State Bank of India (500112-IN), ICICI Bank (532174-IN)... see page 2Leading Sectors. EM sectors exhibiting attractive relative strength trends include: consumer discretionary, energy, financials, health care, materials, and tech. This (mostly) cyclical line-up supports a risk-on outlook. When defensive sectors exhibit improving relative strength, then we’ll turn cautious on EM’s advance.

EM Technicals: Overweight Asia; Indian Banks Are Breaking Out; Bottom-Up Ideas

Founder

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

Cherrystone Hill Research

Equity Capital Markets

Eris Lifesciences / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24180:1">Eris Lifesciences Limited (0113824Z IN)</a> is an India-focused pharmaceutical company that produces and markets branded generic drugs. The company will be one of only a handful of listed companies that is a pure play on the Indian pharmaceutical market and the only one that is not a subsidiary of a multi-national.  </p><p>Eris has filed with SEBI to list on the BSE and NSE through an offering of up to 28,875,500 secondary shares (no proceeds to the company). The bid period starts on 16 June and closes on 20 June. The price band of Rs 600-603 values the company at 34x trailing EPS, a small discount to the other pure plays. This Insight briefly discusses the business, industry, financials, and valuation.</p><p>We think the valuation is reasonable; the business is attractive and would take the deal. </p>

Eris Lifesciences Limited (0113824Z IN) is an India-focused pharmaceutical company that produces and markets branded generic drugs. The company will be one of only a handful of listed companies that is a pure play on the Indian pharmaceutical market and the only one that is not a subsidiary of a multi-national.  Eris has filed with SEBI to list on the BSE and NSE through an offering of up to 28,875,500 secondary shares (no proceeds to the company). The bid period starts on 16 June and closes on 20 June. The price band of Rs 600-603 values the company at 34x trailing EPS, a small discount to the other pure plays. This Insight briefly discusses the business, industry, financials, and valuation.We think the valuation is reasonable; the business is attractive and would take the deal. 

Eris Lifesciences: Ask Some Questions, Take the Deal

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div class="content-highlight"><h2>Japan</h2></div></div><h2>Strong pick-up truck sales in US</h2><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/940" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:940">Nick Tanner</a> suggested paying attention to the continued recovery of US pick-up truck sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15064" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15064:1">Toyo Tire &amp; Rubber Co Ltd (5105 JP)</a>, nearly 60% of whose operating profit is coming from North America. However, Nick cautiously pointed out that we might want to closely watch Toyo's profitability this year, which is expected to be slightly lower than that of last year. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/713" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713">Mio Kato, CFA</a> also put out a piece on the strong pick-up sales in US. He argued that the ongoing…</p>

JapanStrong pick-up truck sales in USNick Tanner suggested paying attention to the continued recovery of US pick-up truck sales for Toyo Tire &amp; Rubber Co Ltd (5105 JP), nearly 60% of whose operating profit is coming from North America. However, Nick cautiously pointed out that we might want to closely watch Toyo's profitability this year, which is expected to be slightly lower than that of last year. Mio Kato, CFA also put out a piece on the strong pick-up sales in US. He argued that the ongoing…

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Trucks, Pachinko, and Life Insurance

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Although the Japanese drug industry suffers from a lack of scale, where it is good is in applying manufacturing techniques to develop not just potentially efficacious molecule, but a portfolio of them. This enables the company in question to develop drugs on its own or in partnership, but also to license out the system, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13514" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13514:1">Peptidream</a> does. Those companies that have this capability (be they large caps like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1">Chugai Pharmaceutical </a>with its recycling antibody technology or small caps like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17760" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17760:1">Nanocarrier</a>…</p>

Although the Japanese drug industry suffers from a lack of scale, where it is good is in applying manufacturing techniques to develop not just potentially efficacious molecule, but a portfolio of them. This enables the company in question to develop drugs on its own or in partnership, but also to license out the system, as Peptidream does. Those companies that have this capability (be they large caps like Chugai Pharmaceutical with its recycling antibody technology or small caps like Nanocarrier…

Medrx - Japan Biotech Microcap in Potential Big Licensing Deal

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.</p><h2>% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/226/original/1.png?1492102101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24226"></figure><div class="content-caption"><strong>Source: Custom Products</strong></div><p>Taiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1">Hon Hai</a>…</p>

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)Source: Custom ProductsTaiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. Hon Hai…

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

India

Cipla Limited manufactures and sells pharmaceutical and personal care products. The Company offers active pharmaceutical ingredients, and formulations in therapeutic areas, such as allergy, analgesic, anti malarial, anti-infectives, cardiology, dermatology and cosmeceuticals, diabetology, gastroenterology, steroids, iron chelators, nutritional products.

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Cipla Ltd (CIPLA IN)

EM Technicals: Overweight Asia; Indian Banks Are Breaking Out; Bottom-Up Ideas

Asia is leading EM higher. In this week's Chart Book, we highlight the following themes and actionable charts: Overweight Asia. In today’s...

Vermilion Research

Eris Lifesciences: Ask Some Questions, Take the Deal

Eris Lifesciences Limited (0113824Z IN) is an India-focused pharmaceutical company that produces and markets branded generic drugs. The company...

Kemp Dolliver, CFA

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Trucks, Pachinko, and Life Insurance

JapanStrong pick-up truck sales in USNick Tanner suggested paying attention to the continued recovery of US pick-up truck sales for Toyo Tire &...

Sanghyun Park

Medrx - Japan Biotech Microcap in Potential Big Licensing Deal

Although the Japanese drug industry suffers from a lack of scale, where it is good is in applying manufacturing techniques to develop not just...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors /...

Custom Products Group

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