Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/868/original/Chart2.Australia.Risk_.Pref_.png?1467594254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9868"><figcaption class="figcaption">Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica)</figcaption></figure> Speculation that Australia will lose its <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-the-trafficjam-political-culture-threatening-aaa-credit-rating-20160703-gpxil9" target="_blank">AAA rating</a> due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/george-osborne-to-speak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/" target="_blank">the final downgrade</a> to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica) Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Friday after the close of trading and before the long holiday weekend, Ferrovial Services Australia - the bidding party in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21031" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21031">Ferrovial's</a> Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5">Broadspectrum Ltd</a> - <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160422/pdf/436pvkxt0xwnnt.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> the Status of Defeating Conditions...<div class="content-highlight"><figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/007/481/original/20160423_BRS_SDCs.png?1461406088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="7481"></figure></div> and...gave <a href="http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20160422/pdf/436pyt3ryc7710.pdf" target="_blank">notice</a> that it had not extended the Offer, and it was scheduled to close at 7pm Sydney time on 2 May 2016.That's it, folks. The Offer will not have its 50% condition waived and will not be further extended. The most recent update (April 18th pre-open) of the position held by…

Friday after the close of trading and before the long holiday weekend, Ferrovial Services Australia - the bidding party in Ferrovial's Offer for Broadspectrum Ltd - announced the Status of Defeating Conditions... and...gave notice that it had not extended the Offer, and it was scheduled to close at 7pm Sydney time on 2 May 2016.That's it, folks. The Offer will not have its 50% condition waived and will not be further extended. The most recent update (April 18th pre-open) of the position held by…

Broadspectrum:  Mattress Mischief Managed

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a greater or lesser portion of their fleet on spot rather than term charter or long-term lease - is now used by stock punters as "evidence" of dynamic demand for shipping services for commodities, and therefore underlying economic pull demand from the secondary sector (heavy and light industry), particularly in China. The big news is that it has bounced 105%…

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a greater or lesser portion of their fleet on spot rather than term charter or long-term lease - is now used by stock punters as "evidence" of dynamic demand for shipping services for commodities, and therefore underlying economic pull demand from the secondary sector (heavy and light industry), particularly in China. The big news is that it has bounced 105%…

Baltic Dry: 30yrs of Stats Tells You The Bounce You Now See Is Seasonal. Again.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight">The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors.</div> We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: <ul><li><div class="content-highlight">The failure of some…</div></li></ul>

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for investors. We live in a world where investors are uncertain about asset values both in financial and non-financial companies.  Whilst a lot is written about the nature of bad debts at banks, little has been comprehensively written about the balance sheets of non-financial companies.We see the following evidence in our analysis: The failure of some…

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last December when Broadspectrum was on its knees at A$0.85/share and Broadspectrum was in danger of not winning a big contract with the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. In fact, the renewal of the contract for Nauru &amp; Manus Island Detention Centre got delayed, and put into competition, Broadspectrum got more contracts, the numbers…

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last December when Broadspectrum was on its knees at A$0.85/share and Broadspectrum was in danger of not winning a big contract with the Australian Department of Immigration and Border Protection. In fact, the renewal of the contract for Nauru &amp; Manus Island Detention Centre got delayed, and put into competition, Broadspectrum got more contracts, the numbers…

Australia

CIMIC Group Ltd. operates in the infrastructure, resources, and property markets. The Company constructs roads, tunnels and bridges, water pipelines and desalination plants, commercial and industrial buildings, resorts and residential precincts, as well as land reclamation, and offshore oil and gas structures, and provides contract mining services.

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CIMIC Group Ltd (CIM AU)

Australia a Risk Haven? Not Today, Mate

Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to...

Naomi Fink

Broadspectrum: Mattress Mischief Managed

Friday after the close of trading and before the long holiday weekend, Ferrovial Services Australia - the bidding party in Ferrovial's Offer...

Travis Lundy

Baltic Dry: 30yrs of Stats Tells You The Bounce You Now See Is Seasonal. Again.

The Baltic Dry Index - once a quaint indicator for shipping sector wonks to figure out expected marginal profitability of shippers who ran a...

Travis Lundy

Beware Impairments in EM and Asia

The failure to use or the aggressive implementation of asset write downs in emerging markets and Asia will have far reaching implications for...

Mark Artherton

Broadspectrum: One Bump & It's Final

It has been a long and tiring battle behind the mattresses for both sides. Ferrovial initially bid $A$1.35/share in a hostile approach last...

Travis Lundy

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