Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations </li>
<li>We downgrade Maybank to a neutral from buy, largely on the back of valuations and its middle-of-the-peer-group pre- and post-provision return trends, with its efficiency ratio requiring attention </li>
<li>We believe that AM Bank is a name to watch for its low valuations as well as its improving cost of risk trends and profitability returns</li>
</ul>


We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations 
We downgrade Maybank to a neutral from buy, largely on the back of valuations and its middle-of-the-peer-group pre- and post-provision return trends, with its efficiency ratio requiring attention 
We believe that AM Bank is a name to watch for its low valuations as well as its improving cost of risk trends and profitability returns


Malaysian Banks Screener; CIMB Improves Credit Quality Driving Post Provision Returns

<ul>
<li>Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep value play CIMB, whose share price has positive momentum, and quality play Maybank on the buy list</li>
<li>Value pick CIMB has undemanding valuations whilst second from top in post-provision profitability; it has strong capital adequacy and its cost of risk is now more in line with peers</li>
<li>Quality pick Maybank also has relatively undemanding PE multiples and PBV ratio, as well as strong balance sheet credentials and improving returns</li>
</ul>


Of the six Malaysian banks screened, we keep value play CIMB, whose share price has positive momentum, and quality play Maybank on the buy list
Value pick CIMB has undemanding valuations whilst second from top in post-provision profitability; it has strong capital adequacy and its cost of risk is now more in line with peers
Quality pick Maybank also has relatively undemanding PE multiples and PBV ratio, as well as strong balance sheet credentials and improving returns


Malaysian Banks Screener; Stick with Value Pick CIMB and Maybank as the Quality Pick

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carsome-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35913:1" rel="noopener">Carsome (CARSOME1 SP)</a>, Malaysia's used-car eCommerce/technology unicorn, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO filing for a dual listing on Nasdaq and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange</a>.</li>
<li>Carsome has a great ESG story to tell, but needs to be less humble about telling it because pre-IPO ESG messaging can impact IPO valuations, especially for transportation-related deals.</li>
<li>The centerpiece of Carsome's ESG story should be the important (but underappreciated) role of used car markets in decarbonising road transportation, a leading source of carbon emissions.</li>
</ul>



Carsome (CARSOME1 SP), Malaysia's used-car eCommerce/technology unicorn, has reportedly submitted a confidential IPO filing for a dual listing on Nasdaq and Singapore Exchange.
Carsome has a great ESG story to tell, but needs to be less humble about telling it because pre-IPO ESG messaging can impact IPO valuations, especially for transportation-related deals.
The centerpiece of Carsome's ESG story should be the important (but underappreciated) role of used car markets in decarbonising road transportation, a leading source of carbon emissions.


Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023</li>
<li>Longer-Term ownership declines in Malaysian Financials and Industrials are starting to reverse.</li>
<li>Only 3 companies are owned by more than 10% of funds, with CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)  the clear leader.</li>
</ul>


Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023
Longer-Term ownership declines in Malaysian Financials and Industrials are starting to reverse.
Only 3 companies are owned by more than 10% of funds, with CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)  the clear leader.


Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

<ul>
<li>RHB Bank is our Malaysian bank top pick, with its real turnaround potential for returns; CIMB remains a buy but is less compelling than RHB given its marked re-rating year-to-date</li>
<li>Our new buy RHB Bank is stand-out value versus its Malaysian peers and it is improving returns from low levels; its main delinquency challenges are concentrated in small overseas portfolios</li>
<li>We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations</li>
</ul>


RHB Bank is our Malaysian bank top pick, with its real turnaround potential for returns; CIMB remains a buy but is less compelling than RHB given its marked re-rating year-to-date
Our new buy RHB Bank is stand-out value versus its Malaysian peers and it is improving returns from low levels; its main delinquency challenges are concentrated in small overseas portfolios
We reiterate our buy on CIMB; management continues to drive credit quality with cost of risk improvements, and we see potential for operating efficiency gains, combined with its attractive valuations


Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

Malaysia

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

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CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB MK)

Malaysian Banks Screener; CIMB Improves Credit Quality Driving Post Provision Returns

CIMB remains a buy for credit quality and potential efficiency gains, we downgrade Maybank to neutral on valuations and efficiency concerns; AM...

Victor Galliano

Malaysian Banks Screener; Stick with Value Pick CIMB and Maybank as the Quality Pick

Value play CIMB and quality play Maybank are top picks among Malaysian banks, both with strong financials and positive momentum in share price....

Victor Galliano

Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Carsome has reportedly filed for an IPO (dual Nasdaq/SGX listing), and has a great ESG story to tell investors including the role that used car...

Kyle Rudden

Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

Among active Emerging Market funds, Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023.

Steven Holden

Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

RHB Bank is our top pick in Malaysian banks for its value attributes with strong turnaround potential, while CIMB remains the quality buy even...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Malaysian Banks Screener; CIMB Improves Credit Quality Driving Post Provision Returns

CIMB remains a buy for credit quality and potential efficiency gains, we downgrade Maybank to neutral on valuations and efficiency concerns; AM...

Victor Galliano

Malaysian Banks Screener; Stick with Value Pick CIMB and Maybank as the Quality Pick

​Value play CIMB and quality play Maybank are top picks among Malaysian banks, both with strong financials and positive momentum in share price....

Victor Galliano

Carsome: A Paradigm of Circular Economy and Unsung Hero in the Decarbonisation of Transportation

Carsome has reportedly filed for an IPO (dual Nasdaq/SGX listing), and has a great ESG story to tell investors including the role that used car...

Kyle Rudden

Malaysia: Sentiment Change Drives Positioning Off the Lows

Among active Emerging Market funds, Malaysian ownership continues its upward trend after a 10-year bear market in positioning from 2014 to 2023.

Steven Holden

Malaysian Banks Screen; RHB Bank Upgraded to a Buy, Alongside Existing Buy on CIMB

​RHB Bank is our top pick in Malaysian banks for its value attributes with strong turnaround potential, while CIMB remains the quality buy even...

Victor Galliano

Value play CIMB and quality play Maybank are top picks among Malaysian banks, both with strong financials and positive momentum in share price....

RHB Bank is our top pick in Malaysian banks for its value attributes with strong turnaround potential, while CIMB remains the quality buy even...