Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li><a target="_blank">The presidential election in Peru, a very tight race between far-left teacher Pedro Castillo and tarnished career politician Keiko Fujimori, will be held on 6th June</a></li>
<li>The contest is considered too close to call by pollsters, and although Castillo appears to have a slim lead over Fujimori, this lead has narrowed recently to well within the margin of error</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a>  is a weathervane of the small Peruvian equity market, and, in view of the election uncertainty, its share price volatility has increased over the last few months; in addition, this uncertainty has fuelled short interest in Credicorp</li>
<li>It is clear that the election outcome, from a market perspective, will be a binary one, with further downside risk in the event of a Castillo victory and a relief rally should more market-friendly Fujimori win</li>
<li>Despite Credicorp’s share rebound of 20% off its recent lows, we see Credicorp as a buy for the brave – especially in view of Castillo’s lead narrowing – and, in the event of a Fujimori win, there is the added potential of investors scrambling to cover short positions in Peruvian assets, including Credicorp</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Credicorp include a Castillo victory and his implementation of draconian left-wing policies that hurt growth prospects, and result in higher system NPLs and higher costs through wage increases</li>
</ul>


The presidential election in Peru, a very tight race between far-left teacher Pedro Castillo and tarnished career politician Keiko Fujimori, will be held on 6th June
The contest is considered too close to call by pollsters, and although Castillo appears to have a slim lead over Fujimori, this lead has narrowed recently to well within the margin of error

Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)  is a weathervane of the small Peruvian equity market, and, in view of the election uncertainty, its share price volatility has increased over the last few months; in addition, this uncertainty has fuelled short interest in Credicorp
It is clear that the election outcome, from a market perspective, will be a binary one, with further downside risk in the event of a Castillo victory and a relief rally should more market-friendly Fujimori win
Despite Credicorp’s share rebound of 20% off its recent lows, we see Credicorp as a buy for the brave – especially in view of Castillo’s lead narrowing – and, in the event of a Fujimori win, there is the added potential of investors scrambling to cover short positions in Peruvian assets, including Credicorp
Risks to our positive view on Credicorp include a Castillo victory and his implementation of draconian left-wing policies that hurt growth prospects, and result in higher system NPLs and higher costs through wage increases


Credicorp (BAP US); Hanging on a Binary Election Outcome

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports our bullish outlook is the continued lack of breakdowns on all S&amp;P 500 Sectors and all the major averages. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials: Copper, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium Mining.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. In today's report we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. Also highlighted are attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Cardiovascular Products, and Gas, Midwest.

The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. In today's report we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. Also highlighted are attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Cardiovascular Products, and Gas, Midwest.

U.S. Dollar Breaking Down; Gold Breaking Out

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&amp;P 500 and equal-weighted S&amp;P 500) have failed to hold, something we noted as increasingly likely in last week’s Compass. Despite the break below support, the move lower has been orderly but technical indications remain mixed. The weight of the evidence leads us to remain cautious. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Materials and Financials: Large-Cap and Small-Cap Gold, and Large-Cap and Small-Cap Property &amp; Casualty Insurance.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more cautious outlook. We also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within the Consumer Staples and Materials Sectors 

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

Peru

Nexa Resources S.A. operates as a mining company. The Company produces, refines, processes, and sells zinc, copper, silver, lead, gold, and sulfuric acid. Nexa Resources serves chemical, petrochemical, rubber, pulp, metallurgy, mining, agricultural, and other sectors in Brazil.

Cementos Pacasmayo S.A.A. produces distributes and sells cement and cement-related materials, such as concrete blocks and ready-mix concrete. The Company's products are primarily used in construction. Cementos Pacasmayo also produces and sells quicklime for use in mining operations.

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

IGO Limited operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and mines copper, ore, nickel, gold, and other mineral resources. IGO serves customers worldwide.

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. mines and produces a variety of non-ferrous metals including zinc, lead, and germanium. The Company also produces silver and sulfuric acid.

Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium Co, Ltd. (600497 CH)

China Minmetals Rare Earth Co Ltd engages in south ionic rare earth separation and processing. The Company mainly focuses on the production and distribution of rare earth oxide, rare earth metal, and highly processed products of rare earth, as well as the research and consult service of rare earth techniques.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. produces and markets tin, tin alloy products, and tin chemicals.  The Company sells its tin products under the YT trade mark.

Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. produces a variety of iron and steel products. The Company's products include steel plates, steel belts, structure steel, concrete iron, steel billets, cast iron, and related by-products.

Hindustan Copper Limited is a vertically integrated multi-unit copper producer in India engaged in a wide spectrum of activities ranging from mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining and manufacturing of copper cathodes, continuous cast wire rods and wire bars. The Company was the first Indian Copper producer to get ISO-9002 certificate for its Continuous Cast Wire Rod Plant.

Compania de Minas Buenaventura S.A.A. explores for, mines, and processes gold, silver, zinc, and other metals. The Company operates mines in Peru, a lime plant, an electric power transmission company, and an engineering services company. Buenaventura also markets metal concentrates to smelters internationally.

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Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN US)

Credicorp (BAP US); Hanging on a Binary Election Outcome

Peru's presidential election, set for 6th June, will provide a binary outcome with clear market implications. Far-left candidate Castillo's lead is...

Victor Galliano

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Materials To Overweight

We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Perhaps the most important thing which supports...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Dollar Breaking Down; Gold Breaking Out

The S&P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Technical Indications Mixed; Outlook Remains Cautious

Key support levels we have been monitoring (the 200-day MAs on the S&P 500 and equal-weighted S&P 500) have failed to hold, something we...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Outlook Deteriorating; Upgrading Staples

In this report we outline important technical levels to watch for U.S. indexes and highlight several negative developments which lead us to a more...

Vermilion Research

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