Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.</li>
<li>We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback -- especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.


No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medipal-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18394:1" rel="noopener">Medipal Holdings (7459 JP)</a> announced strong FY23 result, with year-over-year improvement in sales and profit. While sales were just 1% ahead of forecast, net profit exceeded the guidance by 16%.</li>
<li>Outperformance was mainly driven by PALTAC business. Revenue from PALTAC increased 6% YoY to ¥1,104B, 2% ahead of forecast of ¥1,080B, fueled by 14% growth in OTC pharmaceutical products.</li>
<li>Medipal has guided for accelerated revenue growth of 3% YoY for its pharmaceutical wholesale business in FY24. In FY23, the business recorded revenue growth of 0.6% YoY.</li>
</ul>



Medipal Holdings (7459 JP) announced strong FY23 result, with year-over-year improvement in sales and profit. While sales were just 1% ahead of forecast, net profit exceeded the guidance by 16%.
Outperformance was mainly driven by PALTAC business. Revenue from PALTAC increased 6% YoY to ¥1,104B, 2% ahead of forecast of ¥1,080B, fueled by 14% growth in OTC pharmaceutical products.
Medipal has guided for accelerated revenue growth of 3% YoY for its pharmaceutical wholesale business in FY24. In FY23, the business recorded revenue growth of 0.6% YoY.


Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Better-Than-Expected FY23 Result; Accelerated Growth Expected in FY24

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astellas-pharma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6091:1" rel="noopener">Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)</a> recorded 17% growth in revenue to ¥1,519B in FY23, driven by 24% growth of Xtandi. Core operating profit grew 17% and core net profit increased 18%.</li>
<li>The company has guided for flat revenue and core operating profit for FY24, mainly due to negative impact of Fx.  </li>
<li>Astellas expects to obtain FDA approval for fezolinetant for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause in May 2023. The company will file for marketing approval for zolbetuximab in Q1FY24.</li>
</ul>



Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) recorded 17% growth in revenue to ¥1,519B in FY23, driven by 24% growth of Xtandi. Core operating profit grew 17% and core net profit increased 18%.
The company has guided for flat revenue and core operating profit for FY24, mainly due to negative impact of Fx.  
Astellas expects to obtain FDA approval for fezolinetant for vasomotor symptoms associated with menopause in May 2023. The company will file for marketing approval for zolbetuximab in Q1FY24.


Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): FY23 Result and FY24 Guidance Meet Expectation; New Drugs Hold Key

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY03/2023 results today. Reported revenue increased 11.2% YoY to JPY1,096.6bn (vs consensus JPY996bn) while OP increased 26.2% YoY to JPY147bn (vs consensus JPY180.1).</li>
<li>The drop in OP vs consensus was mainly due to the depreciation of the Yen, nevertheless, OPM improved 30bps to 13.4% during the quarter.</li>
<li>Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think the company will easily beat its own guidance as it pushes forward with its development pipeline further aided by M&amp;A.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 3QFY03/2023 results today. Reported revenue increased 11.2% YoY to JPY1,096.6bn (vs consensus JPY996bn) while OP increased 26.2% YoY to JPY147bn (vs consensus JPY180.1).
The drop in OP vs consensus was mainly due to the depreciation of the Yen, nevertheless, OPM improved 30bps to 13.4% during the quarter.
Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think the company will easily beat its own guidance as it pushes forward with its development pipeline further aided by M&amp;A.


Takeda: Top Line Beats Consensus, Steady Pipeline Progress and Further Upside

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Company Ltd., manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals in the domestic and international markets through its subsidiaries. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on MSCI $ACWI or 4400-4415 on EURO #STOXX 50. Continues to reinforce our view from early-January that $93 on ACWI caps upside...

Vermilion Research

Medipal Holdings (7459 JP): Better-Than-Expected FY23 Result; Accelerated Growth Expected in FY24

In FY23, Medipal Holdings’ revenue was 1% ahead of forecast, while net profit exceeded the guidance by 16%. The company guided for 3% YoY revenue...

Tina Banerjee

Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): FY23 Result and FY24 Guidance Meet Expectation; New Drugs Hold Key

Astellas reported double-digit revenue growth in FY23, while FY24 revenue is expected to be flat due to unfavorable Fx. Flagship Xtandi still has...

Tina Banerjee

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

Takeda: Top Line Beats Consensus, Steady Pipeline Progress and Further Upside

Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think a large beat is incoming. There is further upside as it pushes forward with its...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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