Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a>  reported 3QFY03/2023 results today. Reported revenue increased 11.2% YoY to JPY1,096.6bn (vs consensus JPY996bn) while OP increased 26.2% YoY to JPY147bn (vs consensus JPY180.1).</li>
<li>The drop in OP vs consensus was mainly due to the depreciation of the Yen, nevertheless, OPM improved 30bps to 13.4% during the quarter.</li>
<li>Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think the company will easily beat its own guidance as it pushes forward with its development pipeline further aided by M&amp;A.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)  reported 3QFY03/2023 results today. Reported revenue increased 11.2% YoY to JPY1,096.6bn (vs consensus JPY996bn) while OP increased 26.2% YoY to JPY147bn (vs consensus JPY180.1).
The drop in OP vs consensus was mainly due to the depreciation of the Yen, nevertheless, OPM improved 30bps to 13.4% during the quarter.
Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think the company will easily beat its own guidance as it pushes forward with its development pipeline further aided by M&amp;A.


Takeda: Top Line Beats Consensus, Steady Pipeline Progress and Further Upside

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chugai-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4489:1" rel="noopener">Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP)</a> recorded double and triple-digit revenue growth from Hemlibra in domestic and export markets, respectively during 9M2022. Growth momentum is expected to continue.</li>
<li>Both Actembra and Ronapreve have limited revenue potential from COVID-related indications. Ronapreve reported revenue of ¥60.8 billion in 1Q22 in domestic market, with no reported revenue in two subsequent quarters.</li>
<li>Actemra will face biosimilar competition. This month China has approved first Actembra biosimilar, while a couple of others are under review of the FDA.  </li>
</ul>



Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP) recorded double and triple-digit revenue growth from Hemlibra in domestic and export markets, respectively during 9M2022. Growth momentum is expected to continue.
Both Actembra and Ronapreve have limited revenue potential from COVID-related indications. Ronapreve reported revenue of ¥60.8 billion in 1Q22 in domestic market, with no reported revenue in two subsequent quarters.
Actemra will face biosimilar competition. This month China has approved first Actembra biosimilar, while a couple of others are under review of the FDA.  


Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Hemlibra Is the Only Saviour; Competition Bites Mainstay Drugs

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<li>On November 22, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shionogi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19535:1" rel="noopener">Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP)</a> received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.</li>
<li>On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.</li>
<li>Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.</li>
</ul>


On November 22, Shionogi &amp; Co (4507 JP) received emergency regulatory approval for Xocova  in Japan for COVID-19. It is Japan’s first homegrown oral antiviral for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
On November 24, Shionogi has filed for manufacturing and sales approval of S-268019, a recombinant protein-based preventive vaccine, for use in priming and booster (third) doses, against COVID-19.
Although Shionogi continues to expect ¥110 billion revenue from COVID-19-related products in FY23, the company has raised overall revenue guidance to ¥410 billion from ¥400 billion.


Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).</li>
<li>Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).</li>
<li>The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.</li>
</ul>



Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported 2QFY03/2023 results last week. Reported revenue increased 18.6% YoY to JPY1.0trn (vs consensus JPY962bn) while OP increased 7.2% YoY to JPY104.4bn (vs consensus JPY119bn).
Growth in sales was driven by Takeda’s blockbuster drug Entyvio (+36.6% YoY), Takhzyro (+75.8%) and immunoglobulin products (HYQVIA in particular).
The company also has raised its peak sales estimate for Entyvio to US$7.5-9.0bn (from US$5.5-6.5bn) driven by further market growth and market share expansion.


Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaken-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18819:1" rel="noopener">Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP)</a> is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.</li>
<li>The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.</li>
<li>Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.</li>
</ul>



Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP) is reporting declining revenue from its three largest selling products, due to NHI price revision. These products together contribute more than 60% of total revenue.
The company’s newly launched products are growing at a rapid pace. However, the fastest growing product Ecclock contribute just 2% of total revenue.
Kaken guided for just 1% y/y revenue growth and 12% y/y decline in operating profit in FY23. Due to pipeline expansion, R&amp;D expenses are likely to remain elevated.


Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

Japan

Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals products. The Company develops drugs in the fields of cancer, infectious diseases, bone, blood, and circulatory systems. Chugai Pharmaceutical also conducts research studies on drugs with private and public medical research institutions globally.

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Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT)

Takeda: Top Line Beats Consensus, Steady Pipeline Progress and Further Upside

Takeda has not revised full-year forecast, however, we think a large beat is incoming. There is further upside as it pushes forward with its...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JP): Hemlibra Is the Only Saviour; Competition Bites Mainstay Drugs

Fast growth from Chugai’s new products falls short of compensating the revenue loss from the mainstay products. Chugai may not be able to meet 2022...

Tina Banerjee

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Oral COVID-19 Drug Got Approval; Files Approval for COVID-19 Vaccine

Shionogi got approval for oral COVID drug and is seeking approval for COVID-19 vaccine in Japan. The company expects ¥110 billion revenue (~27% of...

Tina Banerjee

Takeda: Thrilling Journey Ahead with a Dengue Vaccine Launch and New Approvals

After more-than a decade research, Takeda is all-set to launch its dengue vaccine which will be the industry’s first immunisation against Dengue...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521 JP): Falling Revenue of Top-Selling Drugs Limit Near-Term Growth Prospect

Kaken’s top selling drugs are reporting declining revenue. Fast growing new product contribute just 2% of revenue and is yet to gather momentum to...

Tina Banerjee

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