Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div>We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style.</div></li>
<li><div>Extrapolation remains the default forecasting tool for most professional opinion and Japan has been a case in point over the past 18mths.</div></li>
<li><div>The USDJPY saw its biggest two-week move since 1988 post the US election, as quant funds retreated from record speculative long positions.</div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">Foreign investors bought almost $8bn of Japanese stocks in the past two weeks, reducing their net selling</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style.
Extrapolation remains the default forecasting tool for most professional opinion and Japan has been a case in point over the past 18mths.
The USDJPY saw its biggest two-week move since 1988 post the US election, as quant funds retreated from record speculative long positions.

Foreign investors bought almost $8bn of Japanese stocks in the past two weeks, reducing their net selling…


Consensus Rethinks Japan, as Serial Extrapolation Proves Costly

<ul>
<li><div>Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25<sup>th</sup> note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.</div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.</span></div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.
With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.

The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should…


Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. </p><p>Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…</p>

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. </p><p>This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.</p>

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<p>This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.</p><p>AI will change the investment landscape in three ways. First, investors will be forced to place more value on the quality of a company’s AI assets. Second, investors themselves will rely far more on AI-based research techniques to support their investment approach. And third, investors will compete head to head for AI talent with the technology sector.</p>

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment landscape in three ways. First, investors will be forced to place more value on the quality of a company’s AI assets. Second, investors themselves will rely far more on AI-based research techniques to support their investment approach. And third, investors will compete head to head for AI talent with the technology sector.

United States

Chubb Limited operates as a property and casualty insurance company. The Company provides commercial and personal property, casualty, and personal accident and supplemental health insurance, reinsurance, and life insurance to a diverse group of clients.

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Chubb (CB US)

Consensus Rethinks Japan, as Serial Extrapolation Proves Costly

We saw consensus ‘groupthink’ reach new levels in 2016, exacerbated by surging AUM managed in trend following style. Extrapolation remains the...

Sean Maher

Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

What AI Means for Investors

This article looks at the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technology on the investment management community.AI will change the investment...

CM Research

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