Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Athaporn served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 22 years, of which 19 were in research and 9 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006.

Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also performs financial advisory services for TKC Services and provides 11 other on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely:

1) Snippets (news-driven);
2) Sathorn Series (financial services);
3) Silicon Stories (technology); 
4) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin series);
5) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative);
6) Thai Media Spotlight;
7) Political Pit Stop; 
8) Telecom Review; 
9) Thai Macro Watch (read-through from foreign events);  
10) Small Cap Diary; and
11) Property Grid

There are also 3 limited-time series driven by specific events or locations, namely:
1) Thai Corona Crisis;
2) South Series; and
3) Mechanics and Details (deal forensics).

November & Beyond (Part 2): Party Time for the Deal Makers

November & Beyond (Part 1): Shields Up, Spartans!

American Capital Requirement Increase: Charoen and Thai Banks to Lead October Rally

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Thailand Financials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we examine various factors that could affect Thai equities markets in the short to medium term post the US elections. Our thoughts on some of these issues:<ol><li>Trump's upset victory over Hillary: Despite all the statistics in Hillary's favor, Donald Trump has been elected American president in a landslide with almost 280 seats to his name. Increasing production of energy will hurt Thai energy stocks while helping consumer stocks. Thai exports are expected to suffer from potential trade walls from America, though we are not the main focus like China or Mexico. However, a weaker US$ that was widely predicted across Wall Street in this event could lead capital flows into Thai markets on a six month view.</li><li>Mourning &amp; Loi Kratong: Loi Kratong happens on Monday (November 14). MINT, which normally arranges such event, will not see much negatives, since this event is not too festive to begin with. Also, we may see most normal programs restored by then, which would benefit market leader BEC World. MONO and MAJOR had gained market share against media rivals during the mourning period.</li><li>Macroeconomics: December's rate  hike seems likely, though Yellen's future is less so given the election spat. American corporate earnings mostly beat expectations in tech and even banks. Thai bank results have been less than impressive. Foreigners have been selling, and this all points to even more outflows in December. However, locals, particularly retail investors, have picked up much of the slack.</li><li>Portfolio: With overall market drop and transfer from share ownership from foreign to local retail investors, look for theme-oriented mid caps (BEAUTY, CBG) to outperform the Big Boys (PTT, SCB, AIS) in the short term; those guys won't come back until early 2017. Retail investors are likely to pursue moonshots like SPA (massage operator), MONO, and even WAVE, but fund managers will find no liquidity here unless you are doing it PA.</li></ol>

In this review, we examine various factors that could affect Thai equities markets in the short to medium term post the US elections. Our thoughts on some of these issues:Trump's upset victory over Hillary: Despite all the statistics in Hillary's favor, Donald Trump has been elected American president in a landslide with almost 280 seats to his name. Increasing production of energy will hurt Thai energy stocks while helping consumer stocks. Thai exports are expected to suffer from potential trade walls from America, though we are not the main focus like China or Mexico. However, a weaker US$ that was widely predicted across Wall Street in this event could lead capital flows into Thai markets on a six month view.Mourning &amp; Loi Kratong: Loi Kratong happens on Monday (November 14). MINT, which normally arranges such event, will not see much negatives, since this event is not too festive to begin with. Also, we may see most normal programs restored by then, which would benefit market leader BEC World. MONO and MAJOR had gained market share against media rivals during the mourning period.Macroeconomics: December's rate  hike seems likely, though Yellen's future is less so given the election spat. American corporate earnings mostly beat expectations in tech and even banks. Thai bank results have been less than impressive. Foreigners have been selling, and this all points to even more outflows in December. However, locals, particularly retail investors, have picked up much of the slack.Portfolio: With overall market drop and transfer from share ownership from foreign to local retail investors, look for theme-oriented mid caps (BEAUTY, CBG) to outperform the Big Boys (PTT, SCB, AIS) in the short term; those guys won't come back until early 2017. Retail investors are likely to pursue moonshots like SPA (massage operator), MONO, and even WAVE, but fund managers will find no liquidity here unless you are doing it PA.

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO US)

Dawn of the Trump Era: Loy Kratong & Thematic Small Caps