HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK)</a> is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International (178 HK)</a> is the cosmetics play.</li>
<li>Property investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hysan-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14169:1" rel="noopener">Hysan Development Co (14 HK)</a> will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.

Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. Sa Sa International (178 HK) is the cosmetics play.
Property investors including Wharf Holdings (4 HK) and Hysan Development Co (14 HK) will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.


Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

Giordano International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Giordano, one of the most recognizable apparel business in Asia, has been improving its operations materially with solid growth in sales and profits. </li>
<li>Giordano provides very high dividend yield and payout. The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.28 for Giordano in 2023, which would suggest a dividend yield of 12.8%. </li>
<li>We like the company's high dividend yield, loyal customer base, and attractive valuations. It is trading at EV/EBITDA of 3.6x and P/B of 1.5x. </li>
</ul>


Giordano, one of the most recognizable apparel business in Asia, has been improving its operations materially with solid growth in sales and profits. 
Giordano provides very high dividend yield and payout. The consensus expects DPS of HKD 0.28 for Giordano in 2023, which would suggest a dividend yield of 12.8%. 
We like the company's high dividend yield, loyal customer base, and attractive valuations. It is trading at EV/EBITDA of 3.6x and P/B of 1.5x. 


Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International

China Tourism Group Duty Free / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our earnings projections for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK)</a> are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.</li>
<li>At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.</li>
<li>Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.</li>
</ul>


Our earnings projections for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (1880 HK) are 14% and 18% below market consensus respectively. We think these are more realistic expectations.
At IPO price of HK$158, CDFC H-share sits on 23.9x FY23F PER. We think it is difficult to trade above 22x - the average for top consumer discretionary names.
Weakened visitor appetite to Sanya, potentially higher discounts, increase in border opening, higher fixed cost and uncertainties for duty free policies beyond 2025 are negative earnings factors.


CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

<ul>
<li>The sharp surge in Omicron-driven local cases has driven more stringent measures by local governments. On ground in Shanghai, we see more tightened measures being implemented over the weekend. </li>
<li>The measures will reduce a lot of foot traffic and lower discretionary spending appetite in Mar, and this will negatively weigh on many 1Q22 results to be announced in late-Apr. </li>
<li>We advocate a long staples, short discretionary strategy in the near term. Also, travel sector will be hit, and on net-net basis, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> looks to be a loser.</li>
</ul>


The sharp surge in Omicron-driven local cases has driven more stringent measures by local governments. On ground in Shanghai, we see more tightened measures being implemented over the weekend. 
The measures will reduce a lot of foot traffic and lower discretionary spending appetite in Mar, and this will negatively weigh on many 1Q22 results to be announced in late-Apr. 
We advocate a long staples, short discretionary strategy in the near term. Also, travel sector will be hit, and on net-net basis, Meituan (3690 HK) looks to be a loser.


China on the Ground: Escalating Measures to Combat Omicron and What Stocks Are Impacted?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.</li>
<li>With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.</li>
<li>Short interest is especially large in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinotruk-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19764:1" rel="noopener">Sinotruk</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASMPT</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics</a> and inclusion could set off some short covering.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 December.
With no increase in the number of index constituents this calendar year, there could be inclusions in December. The process of getting to 100 index constituents could drag into 2026.
Short interest is especially large in Sinotruk, Giant Biogene, Kuaishou Technology, ASMPT and JD Logistics and inclusion could set off some short covering.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

Hong Kong

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Limited retails jewelry.  The Company sells rings, necklaces, earrings, pendants, bracelets, and small statues.  Chow Tai Fook Jewellery operates retail stores in China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Singapore.

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Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International

Giordano, a prominent Asian apparel business, has seen significant improvements in sales and profits. It offers a high dividend yield and payout,...

Douglas Kim

China on the Ground: Escalating Measures to Combat Omicron and What Stocks Are Impacted?

Omicron combating measures have been stepped up over the weekend and this will make a dent on the Mar operations of many companies. This will be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

​Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Asian Dividend Gems: Giordano International

​Giordano, a prominent Asian apparel business, has seen significant improvements in sales and profits. It offers a high dividend yield and payout,...

Douglas Kim

CTG Duty Free (1880 HK): Our Earnings Forecasts and Views on H-Share Fair Value

CDFC's H-share lPO is priced too high relative to fair value based on our earnings forecasts. There are potentially better entry levels when the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China on the Ground: Escalating Measures to Combat Omicron and What Stocks Are Impacted?

Omicron combating measures have been stepped up over the weekend and this will make a dent on the Mar operations of many companies. This will be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for December

We highlight 10 potential inclusions for the HSI in Dec. The number of constituents has not increased this year and the target to reach 100 members...

Brian Freitas

Potential increase in duty-free quota for mainland visitors to Hong Kong to benefit retail sectors, with Luk Fook as the top jewellery play, Sa Sa...

Giordano, a prominent Asian apparel business, has seen significant improvements in sales and profits. It offers a high dividend yield and payout,...