Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households </li>
<li>The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models</li>
<li>Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city</li>
</ul>


The sales of new homes over the 1999-2022 period appear to be not out of sync with the increase in the number of urban households 
The fact that 'modern housing' in China only started at the end of 1990s, gives the sector unique long-term characteristics, harder to gauge using typical models
Hence the practical demand-supply balance may be better than typically thought, keeping in mind the affordability and wealth distribution issues, variation by region and city


China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 9-15, 2024

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-953'>Bharti Airtel</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26076'>China Vanke </a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-19302'>China International Marine Containers A</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Bharti AirtelChina Vanke China International Marine Containers AVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, China Vanke  , China International Marine Containers A

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>The Politburo meeting re-emphasized the need for inventory reduction and ensuring project completions.</li><li>The latter saw breakthroughs with a stalled residential project in Nanjing returning down payments to homebuyers.</li><li>This success was enabled by stringent oversight of presale regulatory funds and enhanced legal protection for homebuyers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Politburo meeting re-emphasized the need for inventory reduction and ensuring project completions.The latter saw breakthroughs with a stalled residential project in Nanjing returning down payments to homebuyers.This success was enabled by stringent oversight of presale regulatory funds and enhanced legal protection for homebuyers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Narrow in Aug

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. operates real estate development businesses.  The Company provides housing renovation, housing loans, real estate brokerage, and other businesses. China Vanke also operates logistics, material supply, and other businesses.

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China Vanke (000002 CH)

China Housing - Demand-Supply Fundamentals Part #1: The "Modern Housing" Argument

How oversupplied is the China housing market? Thinking beyond the current downturn and crisis for many developers, the answer might not be so simple.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 9-15, 2024

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress....

Robert Ciemniak

Morning Views Asia: Bharti Airtel, China Vanke , China International Marine Containers A

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress,...

Robert Ciemniak

Property - Weekly Highlight: Sales Decline May Narrow in Aug

The Politburo meeting re-emphasized the need for inventory reduction and ensuring project completions. The latter saw breakthroughs with a stalled...

CMB International

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