Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 27 - Nov 2, 2023

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, SMIC, GWM, HKEX.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, SMIC, GWM, HKEX.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): Four Months of Inflows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo (2602 HK)</a> has announced the full conversion of 1.05bn Domestic Shares and Unlisted Foreign Shares to H-shares. The increased market cap will help in HSCI inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo (2602 HK)</a> should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect soon after index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/onewo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36204:1" rel="noopener">Onewo (2602 HK)</a> has drastically underperformed its peers since listing and the HSCI inclusion could mark a turning point for the stock.</li>
</ul>



Onewo (2602 HK) has announced the full conversion of 1.05bn Domestic Shares and Unlisted Foreign Shares to H-shares. The increased market cap will help in HSCI inclusion.

Onewo (2602 HK) should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect soon after index inclusion.

Onewo (2602 HK) has drastically underperformed its peers since listing and the HSCI inclusion could mark a turning point for the stock.


Onewo (2602 HK) - Full Circulation & HSCI Inclusion

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger drop than in the first eight months of the year.</li><li>The decline means developers are spending less buying land and building housing. Construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.4% year-on-year, and total ongoing construction area dropped 7.1%, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).</li><li>The declines reflect developers’ lack of confidence amid a prolonged crisis in the sector. Property sales by floor area decreased 7.5% in January-September from a year earlier, compared with a 7.1% contraction in the first eight months.</li></ul>

Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger drop than in the first eight months of the year.The decline means developers are spending less buying land and building housing. Construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.4% year-on-year, and total ongoing construction area dropped 7.1%, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).The declines reflect developers’ lack of confidence amid a prolonged crisis in the sector. Property sales by floor area decreased 7.5% in January-September from a year earlier, compared with a 7.1% contraction in the first eight months.

Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This is the <em>somewhat brand-spanking-new</em> Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).</li>
<li>We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw HKD 3.9bn+ of net buying. That makes 13 weeks of net inflows.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
The data on liquid names is presented for 5 days and four weeks and anything seen can be ranked in tables or selected and charted (names, sectors, outperformance, etc).
We like the nifty interactive tables+charts (please play with them!) and we welcome feedback. This 5-day week saw HKD 3.9bn+ of net buying. That makes 13 weeks of net inflows.


Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!

China

Wingtech Technology Co.,Ltd manufactures communications equipment. The Company produces mobile phones, tablets, smart devices, and other equipment. Wingtech Technology also operates real estate development, hotel management, financing, and other businesses.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. operates in land development, property management, and infrastructure facilities construction within the Lujiazui Finance and Trade Zone.  The Company also undertakes building and renovation projects.

Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone (600663 CH)

Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company.  The Company operates in real estate development, hotel management, and merchandise retail.  Commodities City Group also provides exhibition and advertising services.

Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co (600415 CH)

Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development Co.,Ltd. operates real estate development businesses. The Company provides new industry properties development, housing renovation, real estate sales, real estate rental, and other services. Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park Development also offers construction investment, hospitality operation, and other services.

Longfor Properties Co. Ltd. operates in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in China.

Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. develops and sells real estate properties. The Company also manages and operates hotels.

Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Grp (002244 CH)

Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co., Ltd develops various real estate projects. The Company constructs, sells, and leases buildings in industrial and economic zones throughout China.

Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai develops residential and commercial properties. The Company also provides property rental services.

Huafa Industrial Co., Ltd. Zhuhai (600325 CH)

China World Trade Center Co., Ltd. provides real estate services. The Company operates office building leasing business, shopping mall leasing business, apartment leasing business, hotel management business, and other related businesses. China World Trade Center offers services in China.

Greenland Holdings Corp., Ltd. provides real estate sales, exchange, rental, evaluation, consulting, maintenance, green projects, and energy services.

Ayala Land is the largest property developer in the Philippines with a track record in developing large-scale, integrated, mixed-use, and sustainable estates. It offers a balanced and complementary mix of residential developments, shopping centers, offices, hotels and resorts, construction, property management and strategic investments.

Hulic Company, Limited. operates real estate business and marketable securities investment business.  The Company also conducts environment related businesses.

Oberoi Realty LTD., is a real estate development company operating in Mumbai, focused on premium developments. The Company's main focus is residential projects but they also have a diversified portfolio of projects covering segments of the real estate market, which target the upper end of the respective income or market segment.

Phoenix Mills Ltd. is engaged, directly and through its subsidiaries and investments in the business of ownership, management, and development of large-format retail-led mixed use properties. The Company's properties include shopping, entertainment, commercial, residential, and hospitality properties. Phoenix Mills owns and operates High Street Phoenix Center in Mumbai.

DAITO TRUST CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD. operates building construction and real estate businesses.  The Company plans and constructs apartment and commercial buildings mainly for land owners.  Daito Trust Construction provides brokerage and maintenance services as well.

Sunway Bhd. is a property development and construction company. The Company's other business divisions include quarrying and building materials trading and manufacturing, hospitality, leisure, and healthcare.

Vingroup Joint Stock Company operates as a real estate development company. The Company develops apartments, malls, hotels and resorts, health care, educational, convention center, amusement parks, and entertainment properties. Vingroup serves customers worldwide.

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd. develops real estate.  The Company builds residential projects including apartments, villas, plotted developments and integrated townships; commercial projects including corporate office buildings and technology parks; hotels and resorts; and retail buildings.

Central Pattana Public Company Limited and its subsidiaries develop properties including shopping centers, condominiums, and office, for sale and rental.  The Company's projects include Central Plaza Lardprao, Central Plaza Ram-indra,  Central Plaza Pinklao, Central Festival Center Pattaya, and Central Plaza Ratchada.

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Oct 27 - Nov 2, 2023

A weekly (Oct 27 - Nov 2, 2023) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

Hong Kong Connect Flows (October): Four Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for October and highlight flows for Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, SMIC, Great Wall Motor, HKEX.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Onewo (2602 HK) - Full Circulation & HSCI Inclusion

Onewo has announced full circulation of H-shares. That should result in HSCI and Stock Connect inclusion in March. Onewo has underperformed its...

Brian Freitas

Investment in Chinese Real Estate Dropped 9.1% in First Three Quarters

Investment in Chinese real estate contracted 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023 from a year earlier, official data showed Wednesday, a bigger...

Caixin Global

Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 20 Oct 23): Meituan, SMIC, Great Wall!

SOUTHBOUND flows last week were still mildly positive making it 13 weeks in a row. Great Wall Motors is finally a large net buy.

Travis Lundy

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