Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New house price indices data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for April for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate figures show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +11.3% in March to +10.7% in April, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up further from +0.6% to +0.7%. The mix of cities that drive this growth pattern has been changing though.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/026/451/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-22%20at%2000.51.38.png?1495385540" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="26451"></figure>The biggest month-on-month changes were recorded in Bengbu (+2.2%)…

New house price indices data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for April for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate figures show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +11.3% in March to +10.7% in April, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up further from +0.6% to +0.7%. The mix of cities that drive this growth pattern has been changing though.The biggest month-on-month changes were recorded in Bengbu (+2.2%)…

China Property: April House Price Growth Slower Y/Y, Stronger M/M, Fewer Outliers

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

There is an apparent divergence in sales performance between the key cities (for which we provide weekly tracking data) and the under-the-radar cities in China for which data are hard to access.  While our data continued to point to plummeting sales especially in T1 and T2 cities, the NBS (the National Bureau of Statistics) data pointed to robust growth of 17% in gross floor area (GFA) sold during Q1 this year.  Note that while we only track 57 cities out of 300+ cities in China, the population in those cities accounts for ~65% of total urban residents in China.  We believe that the small cities are simply the replay of the large cities in that most homes are purchased as investments with the anticipation of sustained price appreciation, regardless of all economic cycles. In fact, in the lower-tier cities where regulatory oversight is questionable, we spotted <a href="http://finance.qq.com/a/20170311/022231.htm" target="_blank">cases</a> of leverage for residential property purchase exceeding 25 times equity.

There is an apparent divergence in sales performance between the key cities (for which we provide weekly tracking data) and the under-the-radar cities in China for which data are hard to access.  While our data continued to point to plummeting sales especially in T1 and T2 cities, the NBS (the National Bureau of Statistics) data pointed to robust growth of 17% in gross floor area (GFA) sold during Q1 this year.  Note that while we only track 57 cities out of 300+ cities in China, the population in those cities accounts for ~65% of total urban residents in China.  We believe that the small cities are simply the replay of the large cities in that most homes are purchased as investments with the anticipation of sustained price appreciation, regardless of all economic cycles. In fact, in the lower-tier cities where regulatory oversight is questionable, we spotted cases of leverage for residential property purchase exceeding 25 times equity.

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In this insight, we highlight some recent developments on the policy front in China before commenting on the tactical indicators. The main current issues for investors to consider are:<ol>
<li>is the very visible pick-up in the economy and corporate sector likely to prove self-sustaining;</li>
<li>are the authorities serious about policy tightening and/or economic reform;</li>
<li>what action will the US administration take over both the bilateral trade imbalance and also over North Korea, which has emerged as the second…</li>
</ol>

In this insight, we highlight some recent developments on the policy front in China before commenting on the tactical indicators. The main current issues for investors to consider are:
is the very visible pick-up in the economy and corporate sector likely to prove self-sustaining;
are the authorities serious about policy tightening and/or economic reform;
what action will the US administration take over both the bilateral trade imbalance and also over North Korea, which has emerged as the second…


China: Can Beijing Maintain the Policy Balancing Act Through 2017? (Part 2 of 8)

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for March for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate figures show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +11.8% in February to +11.3% in March, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up further from +0.3% to +0.6%.Almost all the cities among the 70 now show positive year-on-year growth, though different cities now lead the growth league, compared to several months ago.The…

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for March for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate figures show a further gradual deceleration in price growth overall on a year-on-year basis from +11.8% in February to +11.3% in March, though the month-on-month growth actually picked up further from +0.3% to +0.6%.Almost all the cities among the 70 now show positive year-on-year growth, though different cities now lead the growth league, compared to several months ago.The…

China Property: House Prices Rise Faster M/M, Though Growth Is Decelerating Y/Y

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

Value-focused bottom-up Asian equity research

NVB Asia Pte Ltd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18141" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18141:1">Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd (BTH SP)</a> is a homegrown Singapore brand</li><li>Operating luxury hotels since 1994</li><li>Strong asset backing but profitability track record is dismal</li><li>Entry of industry giants <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21372" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21372:1">Accor SA (AC FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18368" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a> in last 6 months could be transformational</li><li>Banyan Tree is potential next domino in industry consolidation</li><li>Brand value is key attraction to potential suitors</li><li>Fair Value: 20% upside in bear case, 50% upside in base case and 110% upside in bull case scenario</li></ul>

Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd (BTH SP) is a homegrown Singapore brandOperating luxury hotels since 1994Strong asset backing but profitability track record is dismalEntry of industry giants Accor SA (AC FP) and China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK) in last 6 months could be transformationalBanyan Tree is potential next domino in industry consolidationBrand value is key attraction to potential suitorsFair Value: 20% upside in bear case, 50% upside in base case and 110% upside in bull case scenario

Discover Singapore: Banyan Tree (BTH SP) Luxury Hotel Group Catching Attention of Industry Giants

China

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a property development company.  The Company develops residential properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenyang, Nanjing, and other big cities in China.

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China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)

China Property: April House Price Growth Slower Y/Y, Stronger M/M, Fewer Outliers

New house price indices data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for April for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate...

Robert Ciemniak

Chinese Housing Market Update

There is an apparent divergence in sales performance between the key cities (for which we provide weekly tracking data) and the under-the-radar...

JL Warren Capital

China: Can Beijing Maintain the Policy Balancing Act Through 2017? (Part 2 of 8)

In this insight, we highlight some recent developments on the policy front in China before commenting on the tactical indicators. The main current...

John-Paul Smith

China Property: House Prices Rise Faster M/M, Though Growth Is Decelerating Y/Y

New data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for March for 70 major cities and calculations of the aggregate figures show a further...

Robert Ciemniak

Discover Singapore: Banyan Tree (BTH SP) Luxury Hotel Group Catching Attention of Industry Giants

Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd (BTH SP) is a homegrown Singapore brand Operating luxury hotels since 1994 Strong asset backing but profitability track...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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