Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Robert is the Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst of Real Estate Foresight Ltd (REF) (www.realestateforesight.com), an independent analytics, research, and consulting firm based in Hong Kong and focused on the Mainland China property markets. 

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development.

This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities.

The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

More info: https://www.realestateforesight.com

Robert started the company in 2012, after 13 years at Thomson Reuters in two major roles as Global Head of Real Estate Markets (London/Hong Kong) and earlier as Head of Corporate Foresight in Group Strategy in London. He holds a dual MBA degree from London Business School and Columbia Business School in New York, and MSc from Warsaw School of Economics. Robert holds an international master in chess title.

In 2017, Robert founded Robotic Online Intelligence Ltd (ROI) (www.roboticonline.ai), a startup in AI-powered automation of research for data collection and market intelligence, serving primarily data companies and research firms. 

ROI's Kubro(TM) Information Engine enterprise SaaS solution has been deployed commercially since 2018, with clients in the US, UK, and Asia, in areas ranging from real estate, and policy research, to data centers, and carbon and digital asset markets.

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

China Housing: The Cyclicality of City-Level Markets

The Week that Was in Greater China@Smartkarma: We Have Cars, Houses, Sports and Great Stock Calls

China House Price Growth: Slightly Slower Y/Y, Lower-Tier Cities Rise Faster (Today's NBS Data)

Land Sales Growth In China Remains Low Despite Strong House Price Growth (Jan-Sep)

China Property: Land Sales Signal - Strongly Up In Jan-Feb, More Supply Coming To Cool Markets?

China Property: New House Price Data Shows Policy Tightening Gradually Making Impact

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Real estate / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties (1567411D HK)

Land sales data for primary land sales (use rights) shows Bejing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are selling more land after a period of restricting the new supply of land.  Aside from any further tightening policy measures or especially any (though unlikely near term) increase in the long-term lending rates, the increase in the real supply of land should contribute to the cooling of the markets. Beijing: up 336% Jan-Apr Y/Y, back to levels closer to 2015 but still much lower than 2013 and 2014.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/027/804/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-13%20at%2013.42.47.png?1497332653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="27804"></figure>…

Land sales data for primary land sales (use rights) shows Bejing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are selling more land after a period of restricting the new supply of land.  Aside from any further tightening policy measures or especially any (though unlikely near term) increase in the long-term lending rates, the increase in the real supply of land should contribute to the cooling of the markets. Beijing: up 336% Jan-Apr Y/Y, back to levels closer to 2015 but still much lower than 2013 and 2014.…

Poly Real Estate Group Co., Ltd (600048 CH)

China Housing: Land Sales In Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou Picked Up Further In Jan-Apr Y/Y