IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, China Construction Bank.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 24th): China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, CCB

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Our Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/is-there-a-january-effect-in-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85565" rel="noopener">Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index?</a> correctly pointed to a strong Jan 2023. Based on historical pattern, Mar will be weak while Apr is positive.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-webinar-is-there-still-hope-for-crypto-in-2023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:86525" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>Macro factors including Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tension, disappointing US CPI and potentially weak 4Q22 corporate earnings are negative to HSI performance in Mar.</li>
<li>In Apr, focus may shift to positive factors which include improved clarity on US rate after FOMC meeting, better guidances for 1Q23 result and favourable policies after NPC/CPPCC.</li>
</ul>


Our Insight Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index? correctly pointed to a strong Jan 2023. Based on historical pattern, Mar will be weak while Apr is positive.

Macro factors including Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tension, disappointing US CPI and potentially weak 4Q22 corporate earnings are negative to HSI performance in Mar.
In Apr, focus may shift to positive factors which include improved clarity on US rate after FOMC meeting, better guidances for 1Q23 result and favourable policies after NPC/CPPCC.


What Is the Historical HSI Moves in Next Two Months, and Will It Follow This Year?

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

Hong Kong

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

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China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for February and highlight flows for China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 24th): China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

What Is the Historical HSI Moves in Next Two Months, and Will It Follow This Year?

Historically, Mar is a weak month for HSI while Apr is generally with positive return. Macro factors in this year look to support this pattern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, Xiaomi, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)