Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> at the upcoming rebalance in September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.2% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$744m. The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 29 August.</li>
<li>Short interest has been rising on the potential adds and short covering could take the stocks higher, especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Trip.com (9961 HK) and Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) could replace Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) at the upcoming rebalance in September.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.2% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$744m. The official capping will be done based on closing prices from 29 August.
Short interest has been rising on the potential adds and short covering could take the stocks higher, especially Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK). 


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)</a>’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-xintai-natural-gas-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27036:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)</a>’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. </li>
<li>AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).</li>
</ul>



Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK)’s disclosed a revised timetable to vote on Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH)’s HK$1.85 offer. The new scheme meeting is set for 2 June. 
Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to YES to get the scheme approved. 
AAG’s case is unprecedented. The risk-reward remains unattractive as the upside to a scheme pass (13.5% upside) is equal to the downside to a scheme fail (average 13.5% downside).


AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 24th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, China Construction Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 24th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, China Construction Bank.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 24th): China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, CCB

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Our Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/is-there-a-january-effect-in-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:85565" rel="noopener">Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index?</a> correctly pointed to a strong Jan 2023. Based on historical pattern, Mar will be weak while Apr is positive.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-webinar-is-there-still-hope-for-crypto-in-2023" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:86525" rel="noopener"></a>
</li>
<li>Macro factors including Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tension, disappointing US CPI and potentially weak 4Q22 corporate earnings are negative to HSI performance in Mar.</li>
<li>In Apr, focus may shift to positive factors which include improved clarity on US rate after FOMC meeting, better guidances for 1Q23 result and favourable policies after NPC/CPPCC.</li>
</ul>


Our Insight Is There a January Effect in Hang Seng Index? correctly pointed to a strong Jan 2023. Based on historical pattern, Mar will be weak while Apr is positive.

Macro factors including Russia-Ukraine war, Sino-US tension, disappointing US CPI and potentially weak 4Q22 corporate earnings are negative to HSI performance in Mar.
In Apr, focus may shift to positive factors which include improved clarity on US rate after FOMC meeting, better guidances for 1Q23 result and favourable policies after NPC/CPPCC.


What Is the Historical HSI Moves in Next Two Months, and Will It Follow This Year?

Hong Kong

HKT Trust and HKT Ltd trade together as a stapled security.  HKT Ltd provides telecommunications services.  The Company's business provides telecommunications products and services including local telephony services, local data and broadband services, international telecommunications services, and other services.

PCCW Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications, Internet access, multimedia services and related equipment.  The Company also offers computer, engineering, and other technical services in Hong Kong.  In addition, PCCW invests in and develops system integration and technology-related business, infrastructure and properties in Hong Kong and China.

Citic Telecom International Holdings Ltd. provides connectivity services to telecommunications operators with a focus on the China and Hong Kong markets. The group owns and operates and independent telecommunication hubs.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings Limited is an integrated mobile and fixed-line services telecom operator. The Company operates GSM dual-band and 3G mobile telecom services in Hong Kong and Macau. It also provides fixed-line telecom services for corporate, carrier, and international customers under the licensed "HGC" brand.

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings (215 HK)

Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings

HKBN Ltd., provides telephone voice and data communications services. The Company offers wireless internet service, IDD and IPTV service, local telephony services, and other value-added services.

APT Satellite Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, maintains, operates, and leases satellite telecommunication systems.

SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides mobile telecommunication and related services and sells mobile telephones and accessories.

Digital Domain Holdings Limited is a diversified investment holding company. The Company's operating and investment businesses span Hong Kong, the United States, Canada, Mainland China and other countries. Digital Domain Holdings also encompasses businesses such as media entertainment, VFX, co-production of movies, property investment, and trading.

SEEC Media Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides advertising agency services.

Sunny Side Up Culture Holdings Limited operates funeral business. The Company provides funeral, funeral planning, and cemetery services. Sunny Side Up Culture Holdings also provide movies production, concerts organization, and other entertainment services.

Telstra Corporation Limited is a full service domestic and international telecommunications provider for Australia.  The Company provides telephone exchange lines to homes and businesses, supplying local, long distance and international telephone calls and supplying mobile telecommunications services. Telstra also provides data, internet, on-line services and directory services.

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd. provides local, domestic, and international long distance services. The Company also offers wireless telecommunication, paging, and Internet services.

Cellnex Telecom S.A.U. is an independent operator of wireless telecommunications infrastructure and broadcast infrastructure. The Company's sites are located in Spain and Italy.

Telefonica S.A. provides telecommunications services mainly to countries in Europe and Latin America.  The Company offers fixed-line and mobile telephone, Internet, and data transmission services to residential and corporate customers.

Orange SA provides telecommunications services to residential, professional, and large business customers. The Company offers public fixed-line telephone, leased lines and data transmission, mobile telecommunications, cable television, Internet and wireless applications, and broadcasting services, and telecommunications equipment sales and rentals.

Swisscom AG operates public telecommunications networks and offers network application services.  The Company provides local, long-distance, and mobile telephone services, integrated voice and data digital services, network solutions to national and international telecommunications operators, and Internet access services, and owns and operates pay telephones.

BCE Inc., provides a full range of communication services to residential and business customers in Canada.  The Company's services includes local, long distance and wireless phone services, high speed and wireless Internet access, IP-broadband services, value-added business solutions and direct-to-home satellite and VDSL television services.

TELUS Corporation is a telecommunications company providing a variety of communications products and services. The Company provides voice, data, Internet, and wireless services to businesses and consumers in Canada.

Singapore Telecommunications Limited wireless telecommunication services. The Company offers diverse range of services including fixed, mobile, data, internet, TV,  and digital solutions. Singapore Telecommunications serves customers worldwide.

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Persero Tbk is a telecommunication company that provides a variety of domestic telecommunications services such as telephone, telex, telegram, satellite, and leased lines services.  The Company also offers electronic mail, mobile communication, and cellular phone services.

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes Likely in September

There should be 2 changes to the HSCEI in September with Trip.com & CTF replacing CG Services & Zhongsheng. Short interest has been increasing on...

Brian Freitas

AAG Energy (2686 HK): New Scheme Vote Date, Different Result?

Our analysis suggests that in the best case, Xinjiang Xintai would need to further swing NO votes representing 6.52%-8.34% of outstanding shares to...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for February and highlight flows for China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 24th): China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, CCB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Byd, China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

What Is the Historical HSI Moves in Next Two Months, and Will It Follow This Year?

Historically, Mar is a weak month for HSI while Apr is generally with positive return. Macro factors in this year look to support this pattern,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)