FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely trendless major currency markets over recent years, albeit with some sizeable swings, and more recently a weaker USD, may be moving funds into Japanese and European equities without currency hedges.  These equity flows may be playing a bigger role in currency performance than in previous years when monetary policy divergence and relative interest rates dominated. US Economic momentum remains intact; GDP is set to rebound in Q2; the labor market is tightening; and gradual Fed tightening remains on track.  This may not be the time to sell the USD after its broad-based fall this year.  But Trump’s antagonistic ill-disciplined style of economic nationalism is a dead-weight on the USD. The US economy must continue to prove its mettle to ensure the USD does not continue to drop. The recent rebound in CNY, while eye-catching, doesn’t reflect any new economic development in China, and still leaves the CNY as one of the weakest currencies in Asia this year.  The AUD remains threatened by evidence of some slowing in demand and tightening credit conditions in China, and signs that the Australian housing market is peaking.

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China's much touted Belt and Road Initiative is being promoted as a way of developing infrastructure across much of Central Asia and Central Europe - not to mention part of Africa. But once you begin to examine the figures, it is clear there is a large financial hole in the accounts.

China's much touted Belt and Road Initiative is being promoted as a way of developing infrastructure across much of Central Asia and Central Europe - not to mention part of Africa. But once you begin to examine the figures, it is clear there is a large financial hole in the accounts.

Figures Don't Add up for China's Belt and Road Initiative

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

<div>Moody's 24-May downgrade of China's local currency and foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating to A1 (from Aa3) confirms what we wrote back on 1-May that China's economic improvement will not be fast enough to outpace its debt problems. We believe Moody's downgrade is the first of a few more downgrades for China (including S&amp;P to react on its negative outlook and follow Moody's to downgrade China's credit ratings in the near term). Credit ratings of Chinese state-owned enterprises are supported by an implicit support by the Chinese government and, therefore, all deserve a one-notch downgrade, in our view. This wholesale downgrade event will likely cause a repricing event for Chinese credits, as a result.Rating downgrade risk poses asymmetric downside risk for Chinese-related assets, including USD bonds issued by Chinese issuers. Rising market conviction on China's potential debt detonation will quicken the capital outflow and worsen the situation, in our view. We maintain our neutral recommendation on China's USD bond universe as we believe the worst case scenario for China will be a "muddle-through" case where its real GDP growth will be suppressed for a long time (similar to Japan's lost decade). Any sell-off on rating downgrades is always a headline risk removal and, therefore, exposes value for credits that are more closely-related and/or more economically-important to the Chinese government. Credit selections on Chinese-related bonds therefore remain more crucial than ever.</div>

Moody's 24-May downgrade of China's local currency and foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating to A1 (from Aa3) confirms what we wrote back on 1-May that China's economic improvement will not be fast enough to outpace its debt problems. We believe Moody's downgrade is the first of a few more downgrades for China (including S&amp;P to react on its negative outlook and follow Moody's to downgrade China's credit ratings in the near term). Credit ratings of Chinese state-owned enterprises are supported by an implicit support by the Chinese government and, therefore, all deserve a one-notch downgrade, in our view. This wholesale downgrade event will likely cause a repricing event for Chinese credits, as a result.Rating downgrade risk poses asymmetric downside risk for Chinese-related assets, including USD bonds issued by Chinese issuers. Rising market conviction on China's potential debt detonation will quicken the capital outflow and worsen the situation, in our view. We maintain our neutral recommendation on China's USD bond universe as we believe the worst case scenario for China will be a "muddle-through" case where its real GDP growth will be suppressed for a long time (similar to Japan's lost decade). Any sell-off on rating downgrades is always a headline risk removal and, therefore, exposes value for credits that are more closely-related and/or more economically-important to the Chinese government. Credit selections on Chinese-related bonds therefore remain more crucial than ever.

Asian Credit Monitor: Moody's Downgrade on China Is the First Domino to Fall

China's plans to establish the yuan as a respected and trusted global unit of exchange have suffered a number of blows over the past two years. Now there are concerns that that without reforms the IMF will remove it from its basket of reserve currencies.

China's plans to establish the yuan as a respected and trusted global unit of exchange have suffered a number of blows over the past two years. Now there are concerns that that without reforms the IMF will remove it from its basket of reserve currencies.

China's Yuan Struggles to Retain Its IMF Status

Once and for all, we would like to break the ice on China's debt debacle. China's macro data has recently improved. Many sellside economists have called the event a turning point and expect RMB to at least stop depreciating. In one of the recent sellside presentations that we had attended, we asked if they were confident with the data integrity and the presenters did not seem to be very happy with our question. They are correct except the fact that they made a call based on the official data! China's data is a far cry from a developed market standard and we believe the country's credit risk has not receded. In fact, we believe it is heading for the detonation unless China's foreign exchange reserves improve within the next 2 years.Complacency is dangerous and research can be a "garbage-in-and garbage-out" process when an analyst pays no attention to data integrity especially when the Asian bond spread is the tightest in recent years. We expect China's debt debacle to come back to a tragedy center stage in 2 years and, this time, with lots of tears from the audience.

Once and for all, we would like to break the ice on China's debt debacle. China's macro data has recently improved. Many sellside economists have called the event a turning point and expect RMB to at least stop depreciating. In one of the recent sellside presentations that we had attended, we asked if they were confident with the data integrity and the presenters did not seem to be very happy with our question. They are correct except the fact that they made a call based on the official data! China's data is a far cry from a developed market standard and we believe the country's credit risk has not receded. In fact, we believe it is heading for the detonation unless China's foreign exchange reserves improve within the next 2 years.Complacency is dangerous and research can be a "garbage-in-and garbage-out" process when an analyst pays no attention to data integrity especially when the Asian bond spread is the tightest in recent years. We expect China's debt debacle to come back to a tragedy center stage in 2 years and, this time, with lots of tears from the audience.

Asian Credit Monitor: China - The Detrimental Debt Denotation

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Treasury (CHINA GOVT)

Trump Is a Dead-Weight on the USD

Global investors heading into Japan equities may no longer be routinely hedging the JPY currency exposure. Equity investors, viewing the largely...

Greg Gibbs

Figures Don't Add up for China's Belt and Road Initiative

China's much touted Belt and Road Initiative is being promoted as a way of developing infrastructure across much of Central Asia and Central Europe...

Bixmoor

Asian Credit Monitor: Moody's Downgrade on China Is the First Domino to Fall

Moody's 24-May downgrade of China's local currency and foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating to A1 (from Aa3) confirms what we wrote back...

Warut Promboon

China's Yuan Struggles to Retain Its IMF Status

China's plans to establish the yuan as a respected and trusted global unit of exchange have suffered a number of blows over the past two years. Now...

Bixmoor

Asian Credit Monitor: China - The Detrimental Debt Denotation

Once and for all, we would like to break the ice on China's debt debacle. China's macro data has recently improved. Many sellside economists have...

Warut Promboon

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)