Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syngenta-ag-84b1a20a-a381-401b-aa06-25b303fce01e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25035:1" rel="noopener">Syngenta AG (SYNN SW)</a> has passed the listing committee meeting to raise CNY 65bn (US$9.1bn) in a Main Board listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>We forecast <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/syngenta-ag-84b1a20a-a381-401b-aa06-25b303fce01e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25035:1" rel="noopener">Syngenta AG (SYNN SW)</a> will be added to the SSE180 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> indices at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>Inclusion in the SSE A Share Index could take a year and that will hold up inclusion in Northbound Stock Connect and consequently in global indices.</li>
</ul>



Syngenta AG (SYNN SW) has passed the listing committee meeting to raise CNY 65bn (US$9.1bn) in a Main Board listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
We forecast Syngenta AG (SYNN SW) will be added to the SSE180 Index, SSE50 Index and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) indices at the December rebalance.
Inclusion in the SSE A Share Index could take a year and that will hold up inclusion in Northbound Stock Connect and consequently in global indices.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 16th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for CCB.


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect two ADDs and two DELs for HSCEI in the September 2023 Rebalance.
I estimate one-way flow to be US$276mn. Only the two ADDs and two DELs involved in the index changes are likely to have more than one day to trade. 


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yitai-coal-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14904:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK)</a>'s H Share buyback offer at HK$17.50 per H Share is open. The H class meeting is on 30 June.  </li>
<li>The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The de-rating of the peers, likely supportive substantial H Shareholders and no major retail opposition should help hit the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/23.9%.   </li>
</ul>



Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK)'s H Share buyback offer at HK$17.50 per H Share is open. The H class meeting is on 30 June.  
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
The de-rating of the peers, likely supportive substantial H Shareholders and no major retail opposition should help hit the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/23.9%.   


Yitai Coal (3948 HK): Offer Open with H Share Class Meeting on 30 June

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, CNPC, CNOOC, Meituan, CCB, HKEX, BYD, ABC, CR Beer.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows for Tencent, CNPC, CNOOC, Meituan, CCB, HKEX, BYD, ABC, CR Beer.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $2.7 Bn of Inflows in May

China

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited is an integrated coal-based energy company focusing on the coal and power businesses in China.  The Company also owns and operates an integrated coal transportation network consisting of dedicated rail lines and port facilities.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)

Syngenta IPO - Index Entry Possibilities

Syngenta could raise US$9.1bn selling 20% of its shares. There will be small passive buying in December from locals. Non-inclusion in the SSE A...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 16th): CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $2.7 Bn of Inflows in May

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for May and highlight flows for Tencent, CNPC, CNOOC, Meituan, CCB, HKEX, BYD, ABC, CR Beer.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Syngenta IPO - Index Entry Possibilities

Syngenta could raise US$9.1bn selling 20% of its shares. There will be small passive buying in December from locals. Non-inclusion in the SSE A...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 16th): CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week. We estimate the inflows to be USD 1.5bn and highlight flows for China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) as ADDs and Country Garden Services (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) as DELs.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Yitai Coal (3948 HK): Offer Open with H Share Class Meeting on 30 June

The de-rating of the peers, likely supportive substantial H Shareholders and no major retail opposition should help hit the 90% threshold. At the...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: $2.7 Bn of Inflows in May

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for May and highlight flows for Tencent, CNPC, CNOOC, Meituan, CCB, HKEX, BYD, ABC, CR Beer.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM