HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Policies will determine the development direction of the industry, which would then determine the profit model of companies. Companies that align with policy direction would outperform in the coming cycle.</li>
<li>The prosperity of the industry would determine the development trend of companies. For China healthcare, without a significant policy shift, it would be difficult for industry beta to emerge.</li>
<li>Domestic companies cannot achieve successful commercialization/internationalization mainly because they don’t have excellent enough products. It must be innovation that keeps companies alive and then thrive, rather than relying on policy changes.</li>
</ul>


Policies will determine the development direction of the industry, which would then determine the profit model of companies. Companies that align with policy direction would outperform in the coming cycle.
The prosperity of the industry would determine the development trend of companies. For China healthcare, without a significant policy shift, it would be difficult for industry beta to emerge.
Domestic companies cannot achieve successful commercialization/internationalization mainly because they don’t have excellent enough products. It must be innovation that keeps companies alive and then thrive, rather than relying on policy changes.


The Cyclicality of China Healthcare - Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Pharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2022 was a turning point for China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP), because performance of core subsidiaries saw a historic improvement.After China reopens, CRP is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023.</li>
<li>CRP’s development history indicates that its current scale/industry position are mainly due to continuous M&amp;A based on SOE resource advantages/background, but holding platform companies have valuation discounts in secondary market.</li>
<li>Different business models lead to different valuation logic. But Sinopharm/SH Pharma/CRP all enjoy SOE background dividends+valuation system with Chinese characteristics. If investors mainly focus on industry trend, they can all be invested.  </li>
</ul>


2022 was a turning point for China Resources Pharmaceutical (CRP), because performance of core subsidiaries saw a historic improvement.After China reopens, CRP is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023.
CRP’s development history indicates that its current scale/industry position are mainly due to continuous M&amp;A based on SOE resource advantages/background, but holding platform companies have valuation discounts in secondary market.
Different business models lead to different valuation logic. But Sinopharm/SH Pharma/CRP all enjoy SOE background dividends+valuation system with Chinese characteristics. If investors mainly focus on industry trend, they can all be invested.  


China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Growth Recovery and SOE Advantages Improve the Outlook

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 30th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$457.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, utilities sectors, and offset by industrials, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Yibin Wuliangye, CATL. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 30th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$457.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, utilities sectors, and offset by industrials, materials.
We highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Yibin Wuliangye, CATL. 


Northbound Flows (Dec 30th): Ping An, Wuliangye, CATL

<ul>
<li>The distribution business is stable, but it’s difficult to achieve high growth/profits due to industry trend. Therefore, the valuation of this business is hard to increase.</li>
<li>The performance of pharmaceutical manufacturing business is important, which largely determines the overall profit margin. But it actually depends on what the subsidiaries can contribute, who are facing different challenges.</li>
<li>China Resources Pharmaceutical may need to improve its vision of asset selection and its ability to judge and grasp the long-term trend of the industry. The current valuation isn’t attractive.</li>
</ul>


The distribution business is stable, but it’s difficult to achieve high growth/profits due to industry trend. Therefore, the valuation of this business is hard to increase.
The performance of pharmaceutical manufacturing business is important, which largely determines the overall profit margin. But it actually depends on what the subsidiaries can contribute, who are facing different challenges.
China Resources Pharmaceutical may need to improve its vision of asset selection and its ability to judge and grasp the long-term trend of the industry. The current valuation isn’t attractive.


China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Here Are the Concerns

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>$4.7bn USD inflows led by material, industrials and consumer staple. </li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CATL, Moutai, Yunnan Energy New Material, and outflows from Aier Eye. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
$4.7bn USD inflows led by material, industrials and consumer staple. 
We highlight inflows into CATL, Moutai, Yunnan Energy New Material, and outflows from Aier Eye. 


Northbound Flows: CATL, Moutai, Yunnan Energy New Material, Aier Eye

China

China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets medicines, healthcare products, and medical instruments.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in pharmaceutical trading, printing, food manufacturing, real estate development, and provides medical services.

China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma (000999 CH)

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma (000999 CH)

The Cyclicality of China Healthcare - Policy Environment, the Industry, and Investment Opportunities

Without industry beta, China healthcare companies still have opportunity to achieve countercyclical breakthrough.Investors need to be in line with...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Growth Recovery and SOE Advantages Improve the Outlook

China Resources Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2023. Its SOE resource advantage/background are in line with China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows (Dec 30th): Ping An, Wuliangye, CATL

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320.HK) - Here Are the Concerns

Pharmaceutical manufacturing business is the key to drive valuation,but the subsidiaries face challenge.CR Pharma should improve its vision of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Northbound Flows: CATL, Moutai, Yunnan Energy New Material, Aier Eye

We highlight weekly southbound inflows into the A-share market into CATL, Moutai, Yunnan Energy New Material, and outflows from Aier Eye.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)