HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China's retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down. After JD Health/Alibaba Health enter this industry, the game rule changes. </li>
<li>In the short term, the offline chain pharmacies, JD Health, Alibaba Health, etc. would still have the opportunity to carve up market share under the trend of prescription outflow.</li>
<li>In the long term, it depends on who're the first to establish new omni-channel retail scenarios, because the "new retail" model would comprehensively surpass traditional model from cost to experience.</li>
</ul>


China's retail pharmacy market has entered a new era of integration as the industry growth is slowing down. After JD Health/Alibaba Health enter this industry, the game rule changes. 
In the short term, the offline chain pharmacies, JD Health, Alibaba Health, etc. would still have the opportunity to carve up market share under the trend of prescription outflow.
In the long term, it depends on who're the first to establish new omni-channel retail scenarios, because the "new retail" model would comprehensively surpass traditional model from cost to experience.


China Retail Pharmacy Industry - New Game Rule, New Challenges, New Outlook

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The margins of pharmaceutical circulation B2B business is low. If there’s not enough incremental space of terminal customers, the simple B2B trading model is difficult to form a leapfrog growth.</li>
<li>Based on YSB’s business model, if terminal customers choose to use other platforms like JD Health/Alibaba Health, etc., YSB would face the risk of losing upstream and downstream users.</li>
<li>So far, we haven’t seen that YSB has established core competitiveness or moat to secure the terminal customers pool, casting doubts on its business model, investment logic and outlook.</li>
</ul>


The margins of pharmaceutical circulation B2B business is low. If there’s not enough incremental space of terminal customers, the simple B2B trading model is difficult to form a leapfrog growth.
Based on YSB’s business model, if terminal customers choose to use other platforms like JD Health/Alibaba Health, etc., YSB would face the risk of losing upstream and downstream users.
So far, we haven’t seen that YSB has established core competitiveness or moat to secure the terminal customers pool, casting doubts on its business model, investment logic and outlook.


Pre-IPO YSB Inc (YSB.HK) - The Business Model Is Facing Challenges

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopharm-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32:1" rel="noopener">Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK)</a> reported strong 2022 results, with annual revenue exceeding RMB550B and net profit achieving 10% YoY growth. Growth was driven by pharmaceutical distribution business.</li>
<li>EPS increased 10% YoY to RMB2.73, ahead of consensus of RMB2.64. The company has increased its final dividend to RMB0.82 per share from RMB0.75 per share in the prior year.</li>
<li>With favorable industry tailwind and China reopening, consensus expects Sinopharm to report double-digit revenue and EPS growth through 2025.</li>
</ul>



Sinopharm Group Co Ltd H (1099 HK) reported strong 2022 results, with annual revenue exceeding RMB550B and net profit achieving 10% YoY growth. Growth was driven by pharmaceutical distribution business.
EPS increased 10% YoY to RMB2.73, ahead of consensus of RMB2.64. The company has increased its final dividend to RMB0.82 per share from RMB0.75 per share in the prior year.
With favorable industry tailwind and China reopening, consensus expects Sinopharm to report double-digit revenue and EPS growth through 2025.


Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Strong 2022 Results; Double-Digit Top and Bottom-Line Growth to Continue

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.</li>
<li>Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)</li>
<li>As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners


Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

China

China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Ltd. operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company researches and develops, manufactures, and distributes pharmaceuticals. China Resources Pharmaceutical Group provides products and services involving chemicals, biologics, health products, medical appliances, and others. 

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China Resources Pharmaceutical (3320 HK)

China Retail Pharmacy Industry - New Game Rule, New Challenges, New Outlook

China's retail pharmacy market has entered a new era with new game rule.As industry growth is slowing down, which companies are the first to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO YSB Inc (YSB.HK) - The Business Model Is Facing Challenges

Terminal customers are key resources for YSB’s all businesses, but YSB hasn't built core competitiveness/moat to secure terminal customer pool....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Sinopharm Group (1099 HK): Strong 2022 Results; Double-Digit Top and Bottom-Line Growth to Continue

Sinopharm reported 6% revenue and 10% EPS growth in 2022, driven by pharmaceutical distribution business. Favorable industry tailwind and China...

Tina Banerjee

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

$ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends. Despite this bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to...

Vermilion Research

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

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