External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The lukewarm May-23 CPI print may not be a positive read to near-term economic growth.</li><li>On the flip side, decelerating PPI growth looks to be favourable to food &amp; beverage producers.</li><li>Of note, major raw material prices (agricultural/ packaging) represent approximately half of F&amp;B producers’ COGS, and the formers have come down on average by 11% since 4Q22.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The lukewarm May-23 CPI print may not be a positive read to near-term economic growth.On the flip side, decelerating PPI growth looks to be favourable to food &amp; beverage producers.Of note, major raw material prices (agricultural/ packaging) represent approximately half of F&amp;B producers’ COGS, and the formers have come down on average by 11% since 4Q22.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer Staples – Easing raw material pressure underpins cost savings

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CR Beer’s share price corrected by c.10% on softer-than-expected April sales.</li><li>However, our channel check suggests steadfast 4M sales growth that compares to that of 3M.</li><li>Meanwhile, 20%/21% sector beer production growth in March/April could altogether reinforce a potentially strong summer sales that market has previously challenged with doubts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer’s share price corrected by c.10% on softer-than-expected April sales.However, our channel check suggests steadfast 4M sales growth that compares to that of 3M.Meanwhile, 20%/21% sector beer production growth in March/April could altogether reinforce a potentially strong summer sales that market has previously challenged with doubts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) – A Crowded Trade but Worthy of a Revisit for a Potentially Strong Summer Sales

<ul><li>We untangle the “household excess saving” enigma.</li><li>Instead of a silver bullet, we consider it a status-quo in which consumers are confident enough to spend (or invest) beyond their pre-pandemic budgets by tapping into their savings accumulated during the pandemic, after they first normalize their spending to prepandemic level.</li><li>In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We untangle the “household excess saving” enigma.Instead of a silver bullet, we consider it a status-quo in which consumers are confident enough to spend (or invest) beyond their pre-pandemic budgets by tapping into their savings accumulated during the pandemic, after they first normalize their spending to prepandemic level.In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

<ul><li>We expect encouraging 5.1 travel data. According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of the level we saw in 2019.</li><li>Splitting between domestic and overseas travellers, the former will likely grow by approximately 25%, while, for the latter, the recovery could track up to 30-40% of that in 2019.</li><li>By destination, air ticket booking to Hainan grew by 1.5x, and Hainan represented 93% of the travel destination of domestic trips.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect encouraging 5.1 travel data. According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of the level we saw in 2019.Splitting between domestic and overseas travellers, the former will likely grow by approximately 25%, while, for the latter, the recovery could track up to 30-40% of that in 2019.By destination, air ticket booking to Hainan grew by 1.5x, and Hainan represented 93% of the travel destination of domestic trips.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

<ul><li>2023 outlook. Management remains confident in 2023.</li><li>We are unaware of a major revision to previous guides, which targets HSD growth in revenue, contributed by 1) LSD volume growth driven by ~20% sub-premium/ premium SKUs (~30% from Heineken) that accelerate from mid-teen growth in 2022, 2) MSD to HSD ASP growth thanks to regional price hike and product mix upgrade.</li><li>Meanwhile, input cost pressure is easing (~RMB500mn increase vs RMB1bn+ in 2022) and should fuel GPM to expand further from 2022.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

2023 outlook. Management remains confident in 2023.We are unaware of a major revision to previous guides, which targets HSD growth in revenue, contributed by 1) LSD volume growth driven by ~20% sub-premium/ premium SKUs (~30% from Heineken) that accelerate from mid-teen growth in 2022, 2) MSD to HSD ASP growth thanks to regional price hike and product mix upgrade.Meanwhile, input cost pressure is easing (~RMB500mn increase vs RMB1bn+ in 2022) and should fuel GPM to expand further from 2022.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) – An in-line 2H22; our top pick among China F&B names

Hong Kong

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

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China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)

China Consumer Staples – Easing raw material pressure underpins cost savings

Of note, major raw material prices (agricultural/ packaging) represent approximately half of F&B producers’ COGS, and the formers have come down on...

CMB International

CR Beer (291 HK) – A Crowded Trade but Worthy of a Revisit for a Potentially Strong Summer Sales

CR Beer’s share price corrected by c.10% on softer-than-expected April sales. However, our channel check suggests steadfast 4M sales growth that...

CMB International

China Consumer – From Reopening to Recovery

In other words, we believe the use of “excess saving” would predominantly kick-in upon a full-fledged consumption recovery.

CMB International

China Consumer – Expecting Encouraging Data from the 5.1 Holiday This Year

According to various sources and news we monitor, air passenger during the holiday is likely to surpass 9mn persons, tracking approximately 110% of...

CMB International

CR Beer (291 HK) – An in-line 2H22; our top pick among China F&B names

2023 outlook. Management remains confident in 2023. We are unaware of a major revision to previous guides, which targets HSD growth in revenue

CMB International

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