HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Communications Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a>'s overseas contracts surged sharply in 2Q24 as market share gained. Slow domestic contracts are transient as bond issues will accelerate.</li>
<li>Its backlog continued to grow to 4.7x 12-month forward revenue, which is higher than the 5-year average of 4.1x. Improving margin trend in 1Q24 will sustain into 2H24.</li>
<li>With a projected ROE of 8.4% for the next two years, its 0.2x P/B is inexpensive. It is also attractive based on dividend yields of 7.7% and 8.4%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK)'s overseas contracts surged sharply in 2Q24 as market share gained. Slow domestic contracts are transient as bond issues will accelerate.
Its backlog continued to grow to 4.7x 12-month forward revenue, which is higher than the 5-year average of 4.1x. Improving margin trend in 1Q24 will sustain into 2H24.
With a projected ROE of 8.4% for the next two years, its 0.2x P/B is inexpensive. It is also attractive based on dividend yields of 7.7% and 8.4%, respectively.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 107.8% as of Jul 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.0ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, energy, utilities and offset by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Wuapptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass, Ganfeng Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 107.8% as of Jul 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.0ppt week-on-week, led by communication services, energy, utilities and offset by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Wuapptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass, Ganfeng Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 19th):Wuxi Apptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass

China Railway Signal & Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:613:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)</a>'s latest order backlog is estimated to be Rmb173.7bn, enough to cover FY24F revenue by 4.4x.</li>
<li>Gross margin has sustained expansion, reaching a record high of 27.8% in 1Q24. Higher R&amp;D expenses will benefit its medium-term earnings.</li>
<li>Net cash equals 59% of the share price, allowing it to maintain over 50% payout and potentially higher going forward. Operating cash flow has also turned around to positive.</li>
</ul>



China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)'s latest order backlog is estimated to be Rmb173.7bn, enough to cover FY24F revenue by 4.4x.
Gross margin has sustained expansion, reaching a record high of 27.8% in 1Q24. Higher R&amp;D expenses will benefit its medium-term earnings.
Net cash equals 59% of the share price, allowing it to maintain over 50% payout and potentially higher going forward. Operating cash flow has also turned around to positive.


China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> maintained healthy earnings growth at 10% in 1Q24, ahead of the consensus expectation of 7.3% for full-year FY24.</li>
<li>A 0.2pp gross margin expansion and positive swing in credit and asset impairments are the drivers, though higher finance costs have offset some of their benefits.</li>
<li>1Q24 new contracts were up 10.8%, and we estimate backlog equals 4.5x FY24F revenue. Despite YTD outperformance, it is still cheap at 2.4x PER and 0.2x P/B.</li>
</ul>



China Communications Construction (1800 HK) maintained healthy earnings growth at 10% in 1Q24, ahead of the consensus expectation of 7.3% for full-year FY24.
A 0.2pp gross margin expansion and positive swing in credit and asset impairments are the drivers, though higher finance costs have offset some of their benefits.
1Q24 new contracts were up 10.8%, and we estimate backlog equals 4.5x FY24F revenue. Despite YTD outperformance, it is still cheap at 2.4x PER and 0.2x P/B.


China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.9% as of Apr 5th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, real estate.</li>
<li>We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China, Joinn Lab.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.9% as of Apr 5th.
The average A-H premium changed by 5.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, health care, real estate.
We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China, Joinn Lab.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 5th): 21 Stocks at 1Y High

China

China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges.

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China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating

CCCC saw a surge in overseas contracts in 2Q24, with a growing backlog and improving margins. Its low valuation, high dividend yields, and secured...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 19th):Wuxi Apptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Wuapptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

China CRSC has secured backlog and sustained margin improvement. High R&D expenses will drive the medium-term outlook. Net cash equals 59% of the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver

Gross margin expansion and reversal of impairments are drivers behind CCCC's 10% earnings growth in 1Q24, ahead of consensus forecast. We estimate...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 5th): 21 Stocks at 1Y High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Robust Growth Prospects Accelerating

​CCCC saw a surge in overseas contracts in 2Q24, with a growing backlog and improving margins. Its low valuation, high dividend yields, and secured...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jul 19th):Wuxi Apptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Wuapptec, Air China, China Longyuan, Smic, Yofc, Flat Glass,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

​China CRSC has secured backlog and sustained margin improvement. High R&D expenses will drive the medium-term outlook. Net cash equals 59% of the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver

​Gross margin expansion and reversal of impairments are drivers behind CCCC's 10% earnings growth in 1Q24, ahead of consensus forecast. We estimate...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 5th): 21 Stocks at 1Y High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Baiyunshan, Jiangxi Copper, ZTE, Fosun Pharma, Air China,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CCCC saw a surge in overseas contracts in 2Q24, with a growing backlog and improving margins. Its low valuation, high dividend yields, and secured...

China CRSC has secured backlog and sustained margin improvement. High R&D expenses will drive the medium-term outlook. Net cash equals 59% of the...

Gross margin expansion and reversal of impairments are drivers behind CCCC's 10% earnings growth in 1Q24, ahead of consensus forecast. We estimate...