Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.</li>
<li>The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.</li>
<li>There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.</li>
</ul>


With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.
The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.
There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a>'s A-share listing progresses in response to an intention from US regulators to delist its ADSs. </li>
<li>Shareholders have approved the listing and the prospectus has been accepted by the CSRC. </li>
<li>Cashed-Up CNOOC is trading cheap to domestic and international peers, together with a 7% yield, one that may increase significantly with a higher payout ratio. </li>
</ul>



CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)'s A-share listing progresses in response to an intention from US regulators to delist its ADSs. 
Shareholders have approved the listing and the prospectus has been accepted by the CSRC. 
Cashed-Up CNOOC is trading cheap to domestic and international peers, together with a 7% yield, one that may increase significantly with a higher payout ratio. 


Sinopec Engineering Group H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinopec-engineering-group-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18372:1" rel="noopener">Sinopec Engineering Group H (2386 HK)</a> ("SEG") is currently trading 11% below its net cash position.</li>
<li>Net income has steadily increased over the past four years. 1H21 profit increased 6.8% compared to the corresponding period.</li>
<li>The payout ratio has averaged ~60% in the past five years. The current yield is 10%. </li>
</ul>



Sinopec Engineering Group H (2386 HK) ("SEG") is currently trading 11% below its net cash position.
Net income has steadily increased over the past four years. 1H21 profit increased 6.8% compared to the corresponding period.
The payout ratio has averaged ~60% in the past five years. The current yield is 10%. 


Sinopec Engineering (2386 HK): Priced For Liquidation. Again

Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>Beijing steps up tech crackdown</li>
<li>Top planner recovers climate portfolio</li>
<li>Grabbing top spot. Or not</li>
<li>The challenge of US-China relations</li>
<li>Tech giants tout AI-enhanced products</li>
</ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li><div class="content-remarks">In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</div></li></ul>

China News That Matters
Beijing steps up tech crackdown
Top planner recovers climate portfolio
Grabbing top spot. Or not
The challenge of US-China relations
Tech giants tout AI-enhanced products
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>Shortly after publishing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/engine-versus-exxon-activist-hedge-fund-s-proxy-fight-win-reverberates-through-big-oil-boardrooms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52318" rel="noopener">Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms</a>, I decided that a follow-up report (such as this one) would be a good supplement. So, consider this an addendum of sorts to that first Insight.</p><p>Whereas "Engine Versus Exxon" was a mostly qualitative discussion of recent events for Exxon and six other supermajors, this is a more data-driven look of a much larger universe of oil stocks; 50 in total, representing 24 countries (mainly in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe).</p><p>Together, they are a good proxy for the broader Energy sector – an aggregate market capitalisation of US$4.6 trillion, and responsible for an astounding 20.5 billion MtCO2e in emissions, about 65% of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.</p><p>This is a relatively focused Insight, covering four related areas:</p><ol>
<li>
<strong>Carbon Footprints:</strong> Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions for each (ranked and sorted).</li>
<li>
<strong>Climate Policies:</strong> Where each stands vis-à-vis implementation of climate-related policies.</li>
<li>
<strong>Emissions Targets:</strong> Which companies are claiming to go net-zero emissions, and by when.</li>
<li>
<strong>Capital Investment:</strong> How future CapEx is (or is not) aligned with global warming targets.</li>
</ol>

Shortly after publishing Engine Versus Exxon: Activist Hedge Fund's Proxy Fight Win Reverberates Through "Big Oil" Boardrooms, I decided that a follow-up report (such as this one) would be a good supplement. So, consider this an addendum of sorts to that first Insight.Whereas "Engine Versus Exxon" was a mostly qualitative discussion of recent events for Exxon and six other supermajors, this is a more data-driven look of a much larger universe of oil stocks; 50 in total, representing 24 countries (mainly in the Americas, Asia Pacific, and Europe).Together, they are a good proxy for the broader Energy sector – an aggregate market capitalisation of US$4.6 trillion, and responsible for an astounding 20.5 billion MtCO2e in emissions, about 65% of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.This is a relatively focused Insight, covering four related areas:

Carbon Footprints: Scope 1, Scope 2, and Scope 3 emissions for each (ranked and sorted).

Climate Policies: Where each stands vis-à-vis implementation of climate-related policies.

Emissions Targets: Which companies are claiming to go net-zero emissions, and by when.

Capital Investment: How future CapEx is (or is not) aligned with global warming targets.


Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profiles of 50 of the World's Largest Oil Companies

China

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

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China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading close to fair but there are a lot more negative catalysts that will have a bigger impact than positive...

Brian Freitas

CNOOC (883 HK): This Is An Outright Buy

CNOOC is inexpensive versus its two domestic peers, its international peers, and to historical levels. I would expect the imminent A-share listing...

David Blennerhassett

Sinopec Engineering (2386 HK): Priced For Liquidation. Again

SEG is cheap, currently trading below net cash. With a median trailing P/E and P/B pre-Covid of 7.9x and 1.1x, I see at least 40% upside from here.

David Blennerhassett

Didi/ Carbon/ Economy/ US-China/ Tech

In my weekly digest, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and...

Diana Choyleva

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Profiles of 50 of the World's Largest Oil Companies

A quick overview of the carbon footprints and climate policies of 50 of the world's largest oil stocks (mainly Asia Pacific, Americas, and Europe...

Kyle Rudden

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