Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.</li>
<li>We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225</li>
<li>We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities


Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of May 17th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -7.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 106.3% as of May 17th.
The average A-H premium changed by -7.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, real estate, utilities.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 17th): BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. </li>
<li>Heavy-Weights like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.</li>
</ul>


Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. 
Heavy-Weights like Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and ENN Energy (2688 HK) are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.


HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of May 10th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology

China

China Shenhua Energy Company Limited is an integrated coal-based energy company focusing on the coal and power businesses in China. The Company also owns and operates an integrated coal transportation network consisting of dedicated rail lines and port facilities.

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited produces, sells and transports coal. The Company offers coal used by the power, chemical, and metallurgical industries.

Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited operates coal businesses. The Company produces fine coal, blown coal, power coal, and coal chemical products. Yankuang Energy Group also conducts power generation, railway transport, machinery manufacturing, and heating businesses.

China Coal Energy Company Limited mines and processes coal products. The Company produces thermal coal and coking coal products. China Coal Energy also conducts coal chemicals production, coal mining equipment manufacturing, pit mouth power generation, and coal mine design businesses.

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. mainly engages in the Ocean Shipping of Crude Oil and other energy sources such as Coal and Iron Ore. Through its subsidiary CLNG, the Company also provides the Ocean Shipping service of Liquefied Natural Gas.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited of Inner Mongolia is mainly involved in the production and selling of coal in China.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp Ltd. (002128 CH)

Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Power Co., Ltd. mines and processes coal. The Company also generates electric power.

Guanghui Energy Co., Ltd. is principally engaged in energy development, automotive services and real estate property leasing. The Company is in the business of coal mining and related coal chemical manufacturing. The Company is also engaged in the processing and distributing of granite materials and trading of general merchandise such as plastic doors and windows.

Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. mines, processes, and markets low sulfur high quality coal. The company also researches and develops coal and environment protection related technologies.

Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

Phillips 66 is a downstream energy company.  The Company's operations include oil refining, marketing and transportation.  Phillips 66's operations also include chemical manufacturing and power generation.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited specializes in the exploration and production of crude oil and gas. The Company has joint ventures in oil fields in Vietnam, Norway, Egypt, Tunisia, Iran and Australia. The Group's other activities include deep sea explorations on the east and west coasts of India, and the exploration of coal bed methane.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

Bayan Resources Tbk PT is a coal producer.  The Company extracts thermal c oal from surface open cut mines.

Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company engages in onshore oil and gas drilling, exploration and production in the United States.

Diamondback Energy Inc is an independent oil and natural gas company currently focused on the acquisition, development, exploration and exploitation of unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas.

EOG Resources, Inc. explores for, develops, produces and markets natural gas and crude oil. The Company operates in major producing basins in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom North Sea, China and, from time to time, select other international areas.

Valero Energy Corporation is an independent petroleum refining and marketing company that owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and Aruba.  The Company produces conventional gasolines, distillates, jet fuel, asphalt, petrochemicals, lubricants, and other refined products as well as diesel fuel, low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel, and oxygenates.

Hess Corporation is a global independent energy company engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas.

Kinder Morgan, Inc. of Delaware operates as a pipeline transportation and energy storage company. The Company owns and operates pipelines that transport natural gas, gasoline, crude oil, carbon dioxide, and other products, as well as terminals that store petroleum products and chemicals and handle bulk materials like coal and petroleum coke.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation produces and trades petroleum and petrochemical products. The Company offers gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, kerosene, ethylene, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubber, synthetic resins, and chemical fertilizers. China Petroleum & Chemical markets its products throughout China.

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China Petroleum & Chemical (386 HK)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 17th): BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Reiterating Japan Overweight -- Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight; $Nikkei 225, $TOPIX, TOPIX Small, $DXJ All Breaking Out with 2+ year RS uptrends intact on Nikkei and TOPIX. Still...

Vermilion Research

A-H Premium Weekly (May 17th): 44 Stocks at 52 Week High

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Shenhua, Sinopec, PetroChina, China Telecom, CICC, GWM.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 17th): BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, Sinopec, CNOOC, HSBC, Kuaishou Technology, Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

​HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May 10th): BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou Technology

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BOC, Li Auto, Meituan, HSBC, Tencent, CNOOC, Kuaishou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...