Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$844.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by industrials, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, East Money Information, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Gree Electric Appliances, China Merchants Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 28th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$844.5 million, led by financials, consumer staples, and offset by industrials, information technology.
We highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, East Money Information, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Gree Electric Appliances, China Merchants Bank.


Northbound Flows (Apr 28th): Kweichow Moutai, East Money, CATL, Gree Electric Appliances, CMB

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.</li>
</ul>


With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Pacific Insurance / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>CPIC reported 13.5% YoY growth in OPAT, translating to 17.3% YoY growth in 2H22.</li><li>CPIC Life’s positive quarterly VNB growth sustained into 4Q22 with 30% YoY growth (vs +2.5% YoY in 3Q22), on the back of stable scale of high productivity agent team and improving productivity.</li><li>During the analyst briefing, the management indicated that the positive trends of life business sustained into 2M23.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CPIC reported 13.5% YoY growth in OPAT, translating to 17.3% YoY growth in 2H22.CPIC Life’s positive quarterly VNB growth sustained into 4Q22 with 30% YoY growth (vs +2.5% YoY in 3Q22), on the back of stable scale of high productivity agent team and improving productivity.During the analyst briefing, the management indicated that the positive trends of life business sustained into 2M23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CPIC (2601 HK) – Expect sustainable DPS growth onwards

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the total inflows to be USD 960m and  highlight flows for Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the total inflows to be USD 960m and  highlight flows for Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 17th): Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

China

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

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China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)

Northbound Flows (Apr 28th): Kweichow Moutai, East Money, CATL, Gree Electric Appliances, CMB

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Kweichow Moutai, East Money Information, CATL, Gree...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Changes Coming Up in June

There will be 5 changes in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.58% leading to a 1-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. The adds have outperformed the deletes...

Brian Freitas

CPIC (2601 HK) – Expect sustainable DPS growth onwards

CPIC Life’s positive quarterly VNB growth sustained into 4Q22 with 30% YoY growth (vs +2.5% YoY in 3Q22), on the back of stable scale of high...

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 17th): Meituan, Xiaomi, Tencent

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight inflows for Meituan, Xiaomi and outflows from Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

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