Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Life Insurance Co H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Chinese insurance sector has mounted a strong turnaround on hopes that it will be an early beneficiary of the pivot towards reopening. China Life-H has led the rally.</li>
<li>We have seen some resistance at HKD15/share, but there is still potential for a 30% gain in a blue-sky scenario. We also expect its A/H premium to narrow further.</li>
<li>That said, we believe HKD19/share is as far as the stock will go this year, as credit risks in the insurer's investment portfolio are back in the spotlight. </li>
</ul>


The Chinese insurance sector has mounted a strong turnaround on hopes that it will be an early beneficiary of the pivot towards reopening. China Life-H has led the rally.
We have seen some resistance at HKD15/share, but there is still potential for a 30% gain in a blue-sky scenario. We also expect its A/H premium to narrow further.
That said, we believe HKD19/share is as far as the stock will go this year, as credit risks in the insurer's investment portfolio are back in the spotlight. 


China Life (2628 HK): Rally to Top Out at HKD19/Share as Credit Risks Loom Large

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 6th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 6th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou Technology.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 6th): Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> has outperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> by 38% since our last Insight. With the AH premium near parity, we take profit.</li>
<li>We also reverse the position and go long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> to play the premium expansion trade.</li>
<li>Northbound holding of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (601318 CH)</a> has increased over the last couple of months while Southbound holding of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> has decreased.</li>
</ul>



Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) has outperformed Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) by 38% since our last Insight. With the AH premium near parity, we take profit.
We also reverse the position and go long Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) and short Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) to play the premium expansion trade.
Northbound holding of Ping An Insurance (601318 CH) has increased over the last couple of months while Southbound holding of Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) has decreased.


Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A's, Sell the H's

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, and outflows from Xiaomi, HSBC, Anta Sports, China Pacific.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 23rd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflow last week was USD 258m. Tencent, Kuaishou led the outflows.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 23rd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate that the outflow last week was USD 258m. Tencent, Kuaishou led the outflows.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 23rd): Tencent, Kuaishou

China

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Company, Ltd. is an integrated insurance services provider. The Company offers life and property insurance products through its subsidiaries.

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., (601601 CH)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 6th): Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A's, Sell the H's

The A/H premium on Ping An has dropped from 24% to parity over the last 2 months. We expect the A's to trade at a premium to the H's as...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, Xiaomi, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 23rd): Tencent, Kuaishou

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Life (2628 HK): Rally to Top Out at HKD19/Share as Credit Risks Loom Large

China Life has been a star as investors embrace the reopening trade. We believe the rally still has legs, but as the dust settles, it may remain a...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 6th): Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A's, Sell the H's

The A/H premium on Ping An has dropped from 24% to parity over the last 2 months. We expect the A's to trade at a premium to the H's as...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: 12 Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for Meituan, HKEX, China Unicom, Shenzhou Intl, Sensetime, Xiaomi, HSBC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 23rd): Tencent, Kuaishou

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM