Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave</li>
<li>Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?</li>
<li>A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales</li>
</ul>


We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave
Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?
A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales


China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>PBoC cut 25bps of RRR, being the second cut in 2023, and is expected to inject 500bn of liquidity into the system. The average RRR is 7.4% post cut</li>
<li>We look at the potential pair trade of China and HK for property.  The original thesis was that China offers higher growth to investors</li>
<li>Now, the thesis no longer holds.  The trade now becomes more complicated, given the moving pieces both from top down and bottom up.  We recommend single stock trade.</li>
</ul>


PBoC cut 25bps of RRR, being the second cut in 2023, and is expected to inject 500bn of liquidity into the system. The average RRR is 7.4% post cut
We look at the potential pair trade of China and HK for property.  The original thesis was that China offers higher growth to investors
Now, the thesis no longer holds.  The trade now becomes more complicated, given the moving pieces both from top down and bottom up.  We recommend single stock trade.


China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 8th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 8th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum &amp; Chemical.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 8th): ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum & Chemical

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we explored the latest interim results published by key Chinese developers, and reviewed government policies</li>
<li>SOE developers outperformed, while private developers struggled.  Latest policies, including adjustment of mortgage rate and down-payment ratios, are mainly demand side policies and will take time to implement</li>
<li>The latest share price rebound is largely driven by speculation-driven Chinese investors. We think the rally is not sustainable unless we see immediate improvement of the distress situation of developers.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we explored the latest interim results published by key Chinese developers, and reviewed government policies
SOE developers outperformed, while private developers struggled.  Latest policies, including adjustment of mortgage rate and down-payment ratios, are mainly demand side policies and will take time to implement
The latest share price rebound is largely driven by speculation-driven Chinese investors. We think the rally is not sustainable unless we see immediate improvement of the distress situation of developers.


China Property: Latest View After Interim Result, Government Policy and the Stock Market Rebound

Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greentown-china-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8954:1" rel="noopener">Greentown China (3900 HK)</a> is a high quality China property developer that is unfairly suppressed given the extreme pessimism of the sector.  </li>
<li>Even though the overall sales of China property industry will likely continue to decline, the market is large enough that some developers could stand to gain massive market share.  </li>
<li>The company trades at 2.5x 2024E PE, and 71% discount to NAV, with expected growth in net profit in 2023 and 2024.  </li>
</ul>



Greentown China (3900 HK) is a high quality China property developer that is unfairly suppressed given the extreme pessimism of the sector.  
Even though the overall sales of China property industry will likely continue to decline, the market is large enough that some developers could stand to gain massive market share.  
The company trades at 2.5x 2024E PE, and 71% discount to NAV, with expected growth in net profit in 2023 and 2024.  


Greentown China (3900 HK):  Disciplined Market Share Gainer Amid Chaos

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)

The RRR cut is another step of China's easing. We looked at the old pair trade between China and HK for property. The picture today is more...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 8th): ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum & Chemical

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum & Chemical.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Property: Latest View After Interim Result, Government Policy and the Stock Market Rebound

We discussed the latest results by Chinese developers, the gov policy as well as the stock market rebound. The flows are mainly speculation...

Jacob Cheng

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

China RRR Cut, Macro, & A Debate on – Property Pair Trade “Long China and Short HK” (Or the Reverse)

The RRR cut is another step of China's easing. We looked at the old pair trade between China and HK for property. The picture today is more...

Jacob Cheng

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Sep 8th): ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum & Chemical

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for ICBC, CNOOC, CCB, HKEx, China Petroleum & Chemical.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Property: Latest View After Interim Result, Government Policy and the Stock Market Rebound

We discussed the latest results by Chinese developers, the gov policy as well as the stock market rebound. The flows are mainly speculation...

Jacob Cheng

Greentown China (3900 HK): Disciplined Market Share Gainer Amid Chaos

People's Bank of China announced two major policy changes last night: minimum downpayment ratio for first and second home purchases will be...

Steve