HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China National Building Material / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> published the H-share offer document and if everything is smooth, the payment will be made on 14 Mar 2025. </li>
<li>Its two subsidiaries forecast poor profit/losses for FY24, suggesting a tough operating environment. The buyback valuation remains attractive relative to peer multiples.</li>
<li>For non-holders, at the current price of HK$3.59, we do not think the safety margin is good enough, assuming that most existing shareholders will accept and tender.</li>
</ul>



China National Building Material (3323 HK) published the H-share offer document and if everything is smooth, the payment will be made on 14 Mar 2025. 
Its two subsidiaries forecast poor profit/losses for FY24, suggesting a tough operating environment. The buyback valuation remains attractive relative to peer multiples.
For non-holders, at the current price of HK$3.59, we do not think the safety margin is good enough, assuming that most existing shareholders will accept and tender.


China National Building Material (3323 HK): Publication of Buyback Offer Document

<ul>
<li>The prices of the construction materials stocks collapsed recently, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> holding firm, thanks to the buyback proposal.</li>
<li>A sustained drop in cement prices and continued weakness in fixed asset investment revealed the challenging demand environment, making CNBM's offer attractive.</li>
<li>The buyback price equals 25.7x and 10.8x PERs for FY24F and FY25F, representing a hefty premium over peers. We continue to believe this is a good exit opportunity. </li>
</ul>


The prices of the construction materials stocks collapsed recently, with China National Building Material (3323 HK) holding firm, thanks to the buyback proposal.
A sustained drop in cement prices and continued weakness in fixed asset investment revealed the challenging demand environment, making CNBM's offer attractive.
The buyback price equals 25.7x and 10.8x PERs for FY24F and FY25F, representing a hefty premium over peers. We continue to believe this is a good exit opportunity. 


China National Building Material (3323 HK): Buyback Getting Even More Convincing

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 11th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 11th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), CNBM (3323 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 11th): Tencent, Wuxi Biologics, China Hongqiao

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China National Building Material / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, is <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1206/2024120601604.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offering to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share</a>, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>CNBM's parent - the CNBM Parent Concert Group - will not participate in the tender, therefore elevating its stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently. </li>
<li>That % increase necessitates a whitewash waiver so as to not make a mandatory general Offer. </li>
</ul>



China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, is offering to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
CNBM's parent - the CNBM Parent Concert Group - will not participate in the tender, therefore elevating its stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently. 
That % increase necessitates a whitewash waiver so as to not make a mandatory general Offer. 


CNBM (3323 HK)'s Buyback Ups Parent's Stake >50%

<ul>
<li>We view <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>'s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.</li>
<li>Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.</li>
<li>Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM's move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.</li>
</ul>


We view China National Building Material (3323 HK)'s proposal to buy back 9.98% of H-shares as a good opportunity for the shareholders to cash out in their position.
Without further significant government stimulus, CNBM will find it difficult to return to the HK$4.03 offer price. Potential weak FY24 results also mean downside risks.
Other companies with high gearing and low P/B may follow CNBM's move. We single out the infrastructure construction companies as the likely candidates.


China National Building Materials (3323 HK): Buying Back 9.98% of H-Shares

China

China National Building Material Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silica cements, commodity concretes, cement clinkers, and other products. China National Building Material also produces glass fibers, composite materials, and other products.

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

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China National Building Material (3323 HK)