Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As fallout from the Trump Executive Order on Chinese military companies, the NYSE decided to delist the ADRs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a> and US Persons were obliged to cease investment into the stocks wherever they were listed. </p><p>The H-Shares of both fell, then rose sharply one what was seen as "National Team buying." Southbound investment in the two names increased, and almost immediately the two companies set to work to "find alternative capital markets opportunities."</p><p>The idea that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> would eventually list their shares in the mainland was deemed an almost foregone conclusion when China introduced the idea of China Depositary Receipts with a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pilot-program-on-china-depositary-receipts-launched-expect-the-big-5-to-prep-quickly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pilot Programme announced in April 2018</a>.</p><p>In mid-March, China Telecom announced its <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0317/2021031700304.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, and in late April announced that it had applied and the CSRC had accepted its application for an A-Share listing. In late May, China Mobile announced its intention to apply shortly, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-mobile-941-hk-it-could-have-been-done-better-but-it-ain-t-bad-for-hs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52018" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK) - It Could Have Been Done Better, But It Ain't Bad for Hs</a>.</p><p>In that piece, I noted my objection to the way the planned capital raise was presented, but also noted that the details were bullish for H-share investors for both stocks. </p><p>The market hasn't reacted that well to the proposals (the blue lines in the charts below). </p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/214/186/original/Screenshot+2021-06-21+at+9.48.55+AM.png?1624240150" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="214186"></figure></section></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/214/175/original/Screenshot+2021-06-21+at+9.45.38+AM.png?1624239961" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="214175"></figure></section><p>One of the reasons was hidden in the back of the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0524/2021052400195.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Circular</a> for China Mobile, which was almost word-for-word the same as the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0317/2021031700304.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Announcement</a> for China Telecom.</p><p>It was a combination of Shareholder Return and Price Stabilization Obligation. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>This morning, China Telecom has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0621/2021062100289.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it will adjust the Dividend Policy to a 60% payout ratio, lifting it later to 70%. </p></div>

As fallout from the Trump Executive Order on Chinese military companies, the NYSE decided to delist the ADRs of China Mobile (941 HK) and China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK) and US Persons were obliged to cease investment into the stocks wherever they were listed. The H-Shares of both fell, then rose sharply one what was seen as "National Team buying." Southbound investment in the two names increased, and almost immediately the two companies set to work to "find alternative capital markets opportunities."The idea that China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK) and China Mobile (941 HK) would eventually list their shares in the mainland was deemed an almost foregone conclusion when China introduced the idea of China Depositary Receipts with a Pilot Programme announced in April 2018.In mid-March, China Telecom announced its proposal, and in late April announced that it had applied and the CSRC had accepted its application for an A-Share listing. In late May, China Mobile announced its intention to apply shortly, as discussed in China Mobile (941 HK) - It Could Have Been Done Better, But It Ain't Bad for Hs.In that piece, I noted my objection to the way the planned capital raise was presented, but also noted that the details were bullish for H-share investors for both stocks. The market hasn't reacted that well to the proposals (the blue lines in the charts below). One of the reasons was hidden in the back of the Circular for China Mobile, which was almost word-for-word the same as the Announcement for China Telecom.It was a combination of Shareholder Return and Price Stabilization Obligation. This morning, China Telecom has announced that it will adjust the Dividend Policy to a 60% payout ratio, lifting it later to 70%. 

China Telecom (728 HK) Ups Div Payout Policy - There's a Plan Here. Expect China Mobile to Follow

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>On 27th May 2021, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Casey introduced the <em>No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act</em>, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. </p>
<p>The act is a follow up on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act which was signed by Trump on 18th Dec 2020 and which seeks to stop China ADRs from being traded on the US exchanges.</p>
</div><div><p>We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:</p></div><div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-deep-dive-yin-and-yang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang,</a> published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-covid-19-has-increased-the-tension-but-narrowed-the-short-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List</a> published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-holding-foreign-companies-accountable-act-i-m-coming-home" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home</a>, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-secondary-listing-pipeline-looks-rich-have-three-years-to-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move</a>, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-adrs-sec-notice-instead-of-three-probably-have-four-years-till-2025-correction-overdone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone, </a> we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. </li>
</ul>
<p>In this note, we'll talk about the new act and its possible timelines and implications.</p>
</div>


On 27th May 2021, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Casey introduced the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S. exchanges for Chinese companies. 
The act is a follow up on the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act which was signed by Trump on 18th Dec 2020 and which seeks to stop China ADRs from being traded on the US exchanges.
We have looked at the ADRs in the past, in our previous notes:


China ADRs Secondary Listing Deep-Dive: Yin and Yang, published in Feb 2020,  we looked at the background and rules around undertaking a secondary listing in Hong Kong and then came up with a short-list of companies that might undertake a secondary listing. 

In China ADRs Secondary Listing: COVID-19 Has Increased the Tension but Narrowed the Short List published in May 2020, we looked at the recent developments and provided an revised short-list
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act - I’m Coming Home, published in May 2020, we spoke about the implication of the act which had made its way through the senate.
In China ADRs Secondary Listing - Pipeline Looks Rich, Have Three Years to Move, published in Feb 2021 we looked at the ADR pipeline and spoke about the updates from the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act becoming law and the updates at Hong Kong end as well. 
In China ADRs - SEC Notice - Instead of Three, Probably Have Four Years till 2025 - Correction Overdone,  we spoke about the new SEC notice and its implications. 

In this note, we'll talk about the new act and its possible timelines and implications.


China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. </p><p>The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. </p><p>This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. </p><p>Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include South Korean auto names, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a> as well as Brazilian state-owned energy giant, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">rank</td>
<td style="width: 169pt;">Name</td>
<td style="width: 119pt;">Sector</td>
<td style="width: 95pt;">Location</td>
<td style="text-align: center; width: 48pt;">prev.</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">2</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Taiwan</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">3</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a></td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">5</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a></td>
<td>Financials</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">6</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Thailand</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">7</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a></td>
<td>Information Technology</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">8</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a></td>
<td>Consumer Discretionary</td>
<td>Korea (South)</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">9</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a></td>
<td>Communication</td>
<td>China</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">10</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24459:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)</a></td>
<td>Energy</td>
<td>Brazil</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">59</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="text-align: left;"><em>Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas</em></td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><p><em>As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.</em></p>

This insight provides the output, and an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, which takes a three-pronged approach to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 largest stocks in the MSCI GEM Index. The model is based on 1) a typical quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two Artificial Intelligence Technology-based approaches using 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model. This model, which has been developed and tweaked over the past 24 months (and implemented in its current state for &gt;12 months), has a solid real-world performance track record, which I set out in the detail below. Notable new entrants to the top decile this month include South Korean auto names, Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS) as well as Brazilian state-owned energy giant, Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ).









rank
Name
Sector
Location
prev.


1
CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)
Energy
China
1


2
Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)
Information Technology
Taiwan
5


3
SK Hynix (000660 KS)
Information Technology
Korea (South)
23


4
Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
60


5
Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)
Financials
China
25


6
PTT PCL (PTT TB)
Energy
Thailand
4


7
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)
Information Technology
Korea (South)
9


8
Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)
Consumer Discretionary
Korea (South)
80


9
China Mobile (941 HK)
Communication
China
29


10
Petroleo Brasileiro Sa (PETR3 BZ)
Energy
Brazil
59

Source: FactSet financial data and analytics, my estimates and calculations, Tensorflow, Keras, Google Colaboratory, pandas

As usual, please feel free to reach out for the full output table, any questions, clarifications needed or suggestions.

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sing Air, JD Logistics, China Mobile, Angang/Bengang, Link Admin, Xiaomi

<p>In very early January, the NYSE decided that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> ADRs needed to be delisted. Then they didn't need to be delisted. Then they again needed to be delisted and we are on a path to seeing that complete shortly.</p><p>The stock was subject to Trump's Executive Order 13959 regarding Communist Chinese Military Companies as were the shares of other Chinese telcos and China Mobile shares were deleted from global indices. That event marked a local low in the first week of January and shares promptly rallied 30%, later settling at an easy 15-20% above the index deletion point. </p><p>This, and the fact that China a couple of years ago created a method for overseas-jurisdiction Chinese companies to list in China - particularly for very high market cap "tech" companies aiming to take market share from the US for its high-trading value "exported tickers" meant that at some point, the Chinese telcos creating a secondary listing in China was not going to be a surprise. </p><p>Taking the example of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a> which received permission in April to list its shares in mainland markets, on 17 May China Mobile announced its board had decided to pursue a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0517/2021051701190.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Proposed RMB Share Issue</a>.</p><p>A week later, and we have a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0524/2021052400195.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Circular</a>.</p><p>China Mobile shareholders are being asked to accept that management issue some RMB 50+bn of shares for the stated purpose of investing in <em>"the development of premium 5G networks, the development of new infrastructure for cloud resources, the development of gigabit broadband and smart home, the development of smart mid-end platform, the research and development of the next-generation information technology and digitalized and intelligent ecosystem."</em></p><p>That sounds reasonable enough as a concept, but it ignores the fact that China Mobile has nine times that much money in available cash. and eight times that amount in net cash + securities holdings.</p><p>If China Mobile shares were trading at a high multiple, this might be forgivable, but the shares are trading at a forward adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.6x and an ex-net cash &amp; securities PER of less than 4x. </p><p>There are mitigants here. There is possible pricing at a premium to the Hs. There are "price stabilization measures". There are "shareholder return" measures. Some of these might be really worthwhile. </p><p>The governance issues involved in this Circular and project remain problematic. But there are little stars here, twinkling in the darkness. </p><p>More below the fold.</p>

In very early January, the NYSE decided that China Mobile (941 HK) ADRs needed to be delisted. Then they didn't need to be delisted. Then they again needed to be delisted and we are on a path to seeing that complete shortly.The stock was subject to Trump's Executive Order 13959 regarding Communist Chinese Military Companies as were the shares of other Chinese telcos and China Mobile shares were deleted from global indices. That event marked a local low in the first week of January and shares promptly rallied 30%, later settling at an easy 15-20% above the index deletion point. This, and the fact that China a couple of years ago created a method for overseas-jurisdiction Chinese companies to list in China - particularly for very high market cap "tech" companies aiming to take market share from the US for its high-trading value "exported tickers" meant that at some point, the Chinese telcos creating a secondary listing in China was not going to be a surprise. Taking the example of China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK) which received permission in April to list its shares in mainland markets, on 17 May China Mobile announced its board had decided to pursue a Proposed RMB Share Issue.A week later, and we have a Circular.China Mobile shareholders are being asked to accept that management issue some RMB 50+bn of shares for the stated purpose of investing in "the development of premium 5G networks, the development of new infrastructure for cloud resources, the development of gigabit broadband and smart home, the development of smart mid-end platform, the research and development of the next-generation information technology and digitalized and intelligent ecosystem."That sounds reasonable enough as a concept, but it ignores the fact that China Mobile has nine times that much money in available cash. and eight times that amount in net cash + securities holdings.If China Mobile shares were trading at a high multiple, this might be forgivable, but the shares are trading at a forward adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple of 1.6x and an ex-net cash &amp; securities PER of less than 4x. There are mitigants here. There is possible pricing at a premium to the Hs. There are "price stabilization measures". There are "shareholder return" measures. Some of these might be really worthwhile. The governance issues involved in this Circular and project remain problematic. But there are little stars here, twinkling in the darkness. More below the fold.

China Mobile (941 HK) - It Could Have Been Done Better, But It Ain't Bad for Hs

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

China Telecom (728 HK) Ups Div Payout Policy - There's a Plan Here. Expect China Mobile to Follow

China Telecom ups its dividend payout policy ahead of A-Share listing in order to support higher A-share valuation. The goal is to boost A-share...

Travis Lundy

China ADRs - A New Act Aims to Put an End to China ADR IPOs

On 27th May 2021, U.S. Senators Marco Rubio and Bob Casey introduced the No IPOs for Unaccountable Actors Act, which aims to prohibit IPO on U.S....

Sumeet Singh

Screening for GEMs: June 2021

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sing Air, JD Logistics, China Mobile, Angang/Bengang, Link Admin, Xiaomi

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

China Mobile (941 HK) - It Could Have Been Done Better, But It Ain't Bad for Hs

China Mobile will follow China Telecom in issuing A-shares. The constructs are almost identical. Both suggest upside to the Hs, perhaps more for...

Travis Lundy

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