Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.</li>
<li>We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.
With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.
We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outlfows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, and outflows from Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.


Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.</li>
<li>At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.</li>
</ul>


On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares. Its value has since declined to US$17bn.
In this note, we talk about the implications of the deal and what one can glean from looking at the previous dividend payout for JD.com.


Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Almost Here - Lesson from JD.com

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, HKEx

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The three Chinese telcos will report 2022 results in the coming weeks with China Unicom kicks starting next week on 8 Mar.</li><li>Although their avg. 2023 P/E has recovered markedly to the current level of 9.2x, we believe resilient growth in revenue for industrial internet (or its equivalent), which mainly incl. cloud, internet data center (IDC), IoT, big data, AI, etc., will continue to drive overall revenue and earnings growth and, together with growing payout, their share price performance is expected to be sustained.</li><li>We reiterate our BUY calls on China Mobile / China Unicom / China Telecom with upgraded TPs of HK$75.5 / HK$4.90 / HK$6.90.</li></ul>

The three Chinese telcos will report 2022 results in the coming weeks with China Unicom kicks starting next week on 8 Mar.Although their avg. 2023 P/E has recovered markedly to the current level of 9.2x, we believe resilient growth in revenue for industrial internet (or its equivalent), which mainly incl. cloud, internet data center (IDC), IoT, big data, AI, etc., will continue to drive overall revenue and earnings growth and, together with growing payout, their share price performance is expected to be sustained.We reiterate our BUY calls on China Mobile / China Unicom / China Telecom with upgraded TPs of HK$75.5 / HK$4.90 / HK$6.90.

TMT – Chinese Telcos Resilient Growth to Continue

Hong Kong

China Mobile Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides cellular telecommunications and related services in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong SAR.

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China Mobile Ltd Spon Adr (CHL US)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

HSCEI constituents will declare 2022 results and dividends in the next few weeks. 2023 div futures are trading around fair, but there could be...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows Monthly: First Monthly Outflows in 12 Months

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for February and highlight flows for China Mobile, GWM, Sensetime, Tencent, HKEx, CCB, Meituan, BYD.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Tencent Meituan Dividend - The US$17bn Overhang Is Almost Here - Lesson from JD.com

On 16th Nov 22, Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan. The US$17bn overhang...

Sumeet Singh

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Mar 1st): Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, HKEx

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Great Wall Motor, CCB, Hong Kong Exchanges And...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TMT – Chinese Telcos Resilient Growth to Continue

The three Chinese telcos will report 2022 results in the coming weeks with China Unicom kicks starting next week on 8 Mar.

Quam Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)