Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Shenjing Fell Apart Before Evergrande Heated Up: Even prior to the China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) debacle, Shenjing Bank was (2066.HK) [Shenjing] struggling: 1) core operating earnings (excluding gains) were a negative CNY 1.1 tn at 1H21, by our calculation; and 2) short-term liquidity deteriorated at an unprecedented pace. With Evergrande’s risk, we calculate Shenjing’s NPLs are now closer to a whopping 24.4% - and solvency is called into question; and  *Evergrande’s Smartest Move Ever: The rest of the financial system figured out that Shenjing was an accident waiting to happen, with the interbank market cutting their risk. Despite this, Shengjing Finance Holdings (SFH) purchased Evergrande’s 19.93% stake – becoming the bank’s largest shareholder. For USD 1.55 bn, SFH has now absolved Evergrande of being a liquidity and capital backstop. Well done!

*Shenjing Fell Apart Before Evergrande Heated Up: Even prior to the China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) debacle, Shenjing Bank was (2066.HK) [Shenjing] struggling: 1) core operating earnings (excluding gains) were a negative CNY 1.1 tn at 1H21, by our calculation; and 2) short-term liquidity deteriorated at an unprecedented pace. With Evergrande’s risk, we calculate Shenjing’s NPLs are now closer to a whopping 24.4% - and solvency is called into question; and  *Evergrande’s Smartest Move Ever: The rest of the financial system figured out that Shenjing was an accident waiting to happen, with the interbank market cutting their risk. Despite this, Shengjing Finance Holdings (SFH) purchased Evergrande’s 19.93% stake – becoming the bank’s largest shareholder. For USD 1.55 bn, SFH has now absolved Evergrande of being a liquidity and capital backstop. Well done! 

China Evergrande Group – Shoes Dropping At Shenjing

*It Keeps Getting Worse: Between China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] operational and liquidity troubles, large property price discounts, the precipitous drop in the value of its non-property-related development business, and a more challenging industry outlook, we would expect that Evergrande’s corporate restructure to be riddled with challenges; and *Authorities Finally Stepping In: The China Financial Stability and Development Committee (CFSDC) has signed off on Evergrande’s proposal to renegotiate debt payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, after the company missed interest and principal payments on several loans and delayed payments to suppliers amid difficulties accessing new financing – signaling that Evergrande has been greenlighted to re-negotiate funding terms with creditors.

*It Keeps Getting Worse: Between China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] operational and liquidity troubles, large property price discounts, the precipitous drop in the value of its non-property-related development business, and a more challenging industry outlook, we would expect that Evergrande’s corporate restructure to be riddled with challenges; and *Authorities Finally Stepping In: The China Financial Stability and Development Committee (CFSDC) has signed off on Evergrande’s proposal to renegotiate debt payment deadlines with banks and other creditors, after the company missed interest and principal payments on several loans and delayed payments to suppliers amid difficulties accessing new financing – signaling that Evergrande has been greenlighted to re-negotiate funding terms with creditors.

China Evergrande Group – Not Likely A Smooth Restructure

*Weaker Quarter: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) [ICBC] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 77.7 bn, decreasing CNY 8.0 bn or 9.3% linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness, in our view, can be attributed to negative operating jaws as costs increased CNY 9.4 bn (14.8%) and revenues declined CNY 589 mn (0.3%); and*Credit Risk Continues to Rise: The level of net new NPLs increased 46.4% on annualized basis and remains elevated. When one considers the break-down in credit quality, reserves would appear to be light – in the neighborhood of CNY 86.1 bn, amounting to about one quarter of pre-tax results at ICBC.

*Weaker Quarter: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) [ICBC] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 77.7 bn, decreasing CNY 8.0 bn or 9.3% linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness, in our view, can be attributed to negative operating jaws as costs increased CNY 9.4 bn (14.8%) and revenues declined CNY 589 mn (0.3%); and*Credit Risk Continues to Rise: The level of net new NPLs increased 46.4% on annualized basis and remains elevated. When one considers the break-down in credit quality, reserves would appear to be light – in the neighborhood of CNY 86.1 bn, amounting to about one quarter of pre-tax results at ICBC.   

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China – Negative Jaws Pressure Results

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

*Excess Provisioning Eats Away At 2Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB] is mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank. PSB reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 19.9 bn – declining CNY 1.4 bn (6.6%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, PSB’s core operating results declined CNY 6.0 bn (36.0%) over the period. Results were impacted by significantly higher loss provisions and negative operating jaws; and
*Credit Quality Turns, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs increased CNY 14.9 bn and equate to an elevated 116.6% annualized – quite the difference from the CNY 9.3 bn or 18.4% annualized posted at year-end. Despite the accelerated increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves exceed known and potential credit risk to the tune of CNY 89.5 bn or over a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why the increase in loss provisions?

*Excess Provisioning Eats Away At 2Q21 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB] is mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank. PSB reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of CNY 19.9 bn – declining CNY 1.4 bn (6.6%) linked quarter. Excluding gains, PSB’s core operating results declined CNY 6.0 bn (36.0%) over the period. Results were impacted by significantly higher loss provisions and negative operating jaws; and
*Credit Quality Turns, But Reserves More Than Adequate: Net new NPLs increased CNY 14.9 bn and equate to an elevated 116.6% annualized – quite the difference from the CNY 9.3 bn or 18.4% annualized posted at year-end. Despite the accelerated increase in net new NPLs, it would appear that PSB’s reserves exceed known and potential credit risk to the tune of CNY 89.5 bn or over a year of pre-tax profits – begging the question of why the increase in loss provisions?

Postal Savings Bank of China – Way Too Conservative

*Bank Results Decline Linked Quarter: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, continues to feel the challenges of a slowing mainland Chinese economy. For 2Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter. From our vantage point, higher loss provisions and weaker net interest income weighed heavily on results; and*Negative Credit Delta Could Accelerate Capital Raise: By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs have accelerated 102.2% annualized - up from 53.6% in 1Q21. Assuming the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 16 bn. This shortfall represents about two quarter of pre-tax earnings.

*Bank Results Decline Linked Quarter: Ping An Bank (000001.CH) [PAB], the Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] banking subsidiary, continues to feel the challenges of a slowing mainland Chinese economy. For 2Q21, PAB reported results of CNY 7.5 bn – decreasing CNY 2.7 bn (26.4%) linked quarter. From our vantage point, higher loss provisions and weaker net interest income weighed heavily on results; and*Negative Credit Delta Could Accelerate Capital Raise: By our analysis, we find that credit remains incredibly challenged as net new NPLs have accelerated 102.2% annualized - up from 53.6% in 1Q21. Assuming the accelerated credit break in the PAB portfolio continues to remain at its current level, we find that PAB’s reserves still remain quite light by CNY 16 bn. This shortfall represents about two quarter of pre-tax earnings.   

Ping An Insurance – Credit Mixed, But Still Worrisome

China

China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. operates in commercial banking businesses. The Bank provides deposit, loan, settlement, discount, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting and trading, letter of credit, bank guarantee, and other related financial services.

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China Minsheng Banking A (600016 CH)

China Evergrande Group – Shoes Dropping At Shenjing

EVERGRANDE: Before the Evergrande debacle, Shenjing posted core operating losses and liquidity stress. Despite this, Shengjing Finance absolved...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Not Likely A Smooth Restructure

CHINA EVERGRANDE: Evergrande’s operational and liquidity troubles continue, and the CFSDC has signed off on Evergrande’s proposal to renegotiate...

Thomas J. Monaco

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China – Negative Jaws Pressure Results

ICBC: ICBC reported a QOQ 2Q21 bottom-line decline of 9.3% due to negative operating jaws. The level of net new NPLs increased 46.4% annualized...

Thomas J. Monaco

Postal Savings Bank of China – Way Too Conservative

POSTAL SAVINGS BANK: PSB's 2Q21QOQ core result increased 36.0% due to higher loss provisions and negative jaws. Despite the increase in net new...

Thomas J. Monaco

Ping An Insurance – Credit Mixed, But Still Worrisome

PING AN INSURANCE: Ping An Bank reported a 26.4% QOQ results decline for 2Q21 reflecting higher provisions. Credit is challenged as net new NPLs...

Thomas J. Monaco

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