Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst &amp; Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of inter-company loans, more liberal accounting policies, and the 30% purchase of a Sri Lankan company from a related party at a 120% market premium.* Among other items, an independent research report further alleged that Group Lease purposely misled investors, Ernst &amp; Young, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our own research suggests that each…

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst &amp; Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of inter-company loans, more liberal accounting policies, and the 30% purchase of a Sri Lankan company from a related party at a 120% market premium.* Among other items, an independent research report further alleged that Group Lease purposely misled investors, Ernst &amp; Young, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). Our own research suggests that each…

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

We view <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13585" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13585:1">Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US)</a> as our top choice to ride the rising trend of the private banking industry in China.  It competes in a market dominated by the slow moving commercial banks – many owned by the state – in distributing and managing investment portfolios for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in China.  Wealth creation in China over the past decade has reached such a critical mass that high quality investment services are now in high demand.  We believe that NOAH Holdings, a niche pure play in the wealth and asset management industry, is positioned to grow its AUM (asset under management) by grabbing share in this growing industry.

We view Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US) as our top choice to ride the rising trend of the private banking industry in China.  It competes in a market dominated by the slow moving commercial banks – many owned by the state – in distributing and managing investment portfolios for high net worth individuals (HNWIs) in China.  Wealth creation in China over the past decade has reached such a critical mass that high quality investment services are now in high demand.  We believe that NOAH Holdings, a niche pure play in the wealth and asset management industry, is positioned to grow its AUM (asset under management) by grabbing share in this growing industry. 

NOAH Holdings: Leading Pure Play in China's Under-Served Private Banking Industry

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is concerned about high growth in consumer loans. But not only the pace. It is also worried about misdirected lending into mortgage real estate loans, from other categories of consumer, such as personal or credit card. While impossible to prove, experience in Asia has shown mis-directed lending to be fairly normal, and especially when growth is over-sized.Most of China’s credit growth in recent quarters, is from consumer, which is basically…

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is concerned about high growth in consumer loans. But not only the pace. It is also worried about misdirected lending into mortgage real estate loans, from other categories of consumer, such as personal or credit card. While impossible to prove, experience in Asia has shown mis-directed lending to be fairly normal, and especially when growth is over-sized.Most of China’s credit growth in recent quarters, is from consumer, which is basically…

China Consumer Loans – Risk at Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and System?

While non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have not blown out for China’s banks nor has profit imploded, we would caution against becoming complacent. There remains considerable concern with ‘overdue loans’ and the distribution of NPLs, while China corporate financials remain frail. Aside from this, we must recognize that banks' credit costs as a proportion of loans does suggest a nasty and prolonged NPL cycle. Perhaps this is why banks’ market capitalisation as a percentage of assets continues to…

While non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have not blown out for China’s banks nor has profit imploded, we would caution against becoming complacent. There remains considerable concern with ‘overdue loans’ and the distribution of NPLs, while China corporate financials remain frail. Aside from this, we must recognize that banks' credit costs as a proportion of loans does suggest a nasty and prolonged NPL cycle. Perhaps this is why banks’ market capitalisation as a percentage of assets continues to…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

China

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Merchants Bank A (600036 CH)

Group Lease - Lessons from Icharus

* Problems at Group Lease (GL.TB) became more apparent with Ernst & Young’s scathing 2016 audit report which questioned the integrity of...

Thomas J. Monaco

NOAH Holdings: Leading Pure Play in China's Under-Served Private Banking Industry

We view Noah Holdings Ltd Spon Ads (NOAH US) as our top choice to ride the rising trend of the private banking industry in China. It competes in a...

JL Warren Capital

China Consumer Loans – Risk at Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, and System?

The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) is concerned about high growth in consumer loans. But not only the pace. It is also worried about...

Daniel Tabbush

China Banks: We Must Not Be Complacent

While non-performing loan (NPL) ratios have not blown out for China’s banks nor has profit imploded, we would caution against becoming complacent....

Daniel Tabbush

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels,presenting attractive entry points. We see...

Vermilion Research

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