Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.6% as of Nov 3rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week on week, led by utilities, information technology, communication services and offset by energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ganfeng Lithium, China Merchant Securities and Wuapptec.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 117.6% as of Nov 3rd.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.5ppt week on week, led by utilities, information technology, communication services and offset by energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ganfeng Lithium, China Merchant Securities and Wuapptec.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 3rd): Ganfeng Lithium, CMS, Wuxi Apptec

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Industrials ($2,588 million worth of outflows), Financials ($1,109 million worth of outflows) led the outflows. </li>
<li>We highlight outflows from Moutai, CATL, Longi, Focus Media, Ping An Insurance.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Industrials ($2,588 million worth of outflows), Financials ($1,109 million worth of outflows) led the outflows. 
We highlight outflows from Moutai, CATL, Longi, Focus Media, Ping An Insurance.


Northbound Flows Monthly (October): Three Months of Outflows

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.1% as of Oct 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.7ppt week on week, led by utilities, consumer discretionary, industrials and offset by consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Merchants Securities, Guangzhou Auto, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.1% as of Oct 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.7ppt week on week, led by utilities, consumer discretionary, industrials and offset by consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Beigene, China Merchants Securities, Guangzhou Auto, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 27th): Beigene, CMS, Guangzhou Auto, China Longyuan

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$3,259.2 million, led by materials, industrials, and offset by consumer discretionary, utilities.
We highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye, Ping An Insurance, CATL, Haitian Flavouring, Longi Green, CMB.


Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is little in the long-term and current figures of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.</li>
<li>Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. </li>
<li>The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. </li>
</ul>


There is little in the long-term and current figures of Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) that leaves one assured of strength, stability, earnings power, and rather the opposite.
Sharply expanding LDR is an increase in loans relative to deposits, and it tends to drive rising NIM. Where LDR expands (a lot) but NIM contracts, it is a concern. 
The bank appears to have a 2-3x higher base of credit costs/operating profit, with an ROE of 10% now vs 18% some years ago - with much more geopolitical risk. 


Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

China

China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. operates as a commercial bank. The Company provides deposits, loans, wealth management, asset custody, finance leasing, investment banking, and other banking services. China Merchants Bank conducts businesses domestically and internationally.

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China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 3rd): Ganfeng Lithium, CMS, Wuxi Apptec

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Ganfeng Lithium, China Merchant Securities and Wuapptec.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows Monthly (October): Three Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for October and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Longi, Focus Media, Ping An Insurance.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 27th): Beigene, CMS, Guangzhou Auto, China Longyuan

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Beigene, China Merchants Securities, Guangzhou Auto, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Oct 19th): BYD, Changan Auto, Zhongji Innolight, Moutai, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for BYD, Chongqing Changan Automobile, Zhongji...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Bank of China - Surging LDR, Falling NIM, ROE, with Higher Base of Credit Costs/Operating Income

BOC has seen LDR expansion accompanied by narrowing NIM, raising questions on marginal lending. ROE is worsening dramatically, with credit costs...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

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