Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP China A50 (2822 HK)</a> ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-nuclear-power-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25348:1" rel="noopener">China National Nuclear Power (601985 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huaneng-lancang-river-hydropow" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26585:1" rel="noopener">Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yihai-kerry-arawana-holdings-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33230:1" rel="noopener">Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999 CH)</a> in the ETFs.</li>
<li>Passive trackers are estimated to buy between 0.3-0.5 days of ADV in the adds and sell between 0.4-1.1 days of ADV in the deletes.</li>
</ul>


The iShares A50 China (2823 HK) and CSOP China A50 (2822 HK) ETFs will rebalance their holdings at the close on 20 September.

China National Nuclear Power (601985 CH) and Huaneng Lancang River Hydropow (600025) will replace China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH) and Yihai Kerry Arawana (300999 CH) in the ETFs.
Passive trackers are estimated to buy between 0.3-0.5 days of ADV in the adds and sell between 0.4-1.1 days of ADV in the deletes.


China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Adds, Two Deletes, as Expected

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CTG) share price on downtrend due to negative sentiment, increased competition, and Chinese being more frugal in their consumption  </li>
<li>2024 and 2025 consensus earnings declined by -2%/-17%, but CTG will deliver +16% YoY earnings growth in 2025. CTG remains a growths stock, a fact we think many investors forget!  </li>
<li>We revise our target price to CNY71.3 pegged to 18.5x FY25 PE (1.5 standard deviation below mean). We think the share price decline is overdone and ignores its strong fundamentals.  </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTG) share price on downtrend due to negative sentiment, increased competition, and Chinese being more frugal in their consumption  
2024 and 2025 consensus earnings declined by -2%/-17%, but CTG will deliver +16% YoY earnings growth in 2025. CTG remains a growths stock, a fact we think many investors forget!  
We revise our target price to CNY71.3 pegged to 18.5x FY25 PE (1.5 standard deviation below mean). We think the share price decline is overdone and ignores its strong fundamentals.  


China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing

<ul>
<li>European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  </li>
<li>China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft</li>
<li>The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    </li>
</ul>


European luxury goods maker enjoyed its best week in the past 52 weeks, spurred by better-than-expected results by LVMH, the industry leader and widely viewed as the bellwether  
China's market was cited as resilient and very strong in certain categories, defying the general market perception that Chinese demand is soft
The key European luxury goods share price has risen by an average of 8.2% YTD, China Tourism Group share price performance has lagged. Good buying opportunity    


LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> (CTG) announced last week a new supplementary contract for its duty-free airport businesses in Beijing and Shanghai airports</li>
<li>The new deal aims to promote collaborations between the airports and CTG, acting like true partners. However, we think it is more positive for airports and slight detriment to CTG</li>
<li>Maintain our Bullish call with an unchanged target price of CNY106 (+27% UPSIDE), based on the company's lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24</li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) (CTG) announced last week a new supplementary contract for its duty-free airport businesses in Beijing and Shanghai airports
The new deal aims to promote collaborations between the airports and CTG, acting like true partners. However, we think it is more positive for airports and slight detriment to CTG
Maintain our Bullish call with an unchanged target price of CNY106 (+27% UPSIDE), based on the company's lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24


China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): New Duty-Free Contracts with Airports, Slight Negative

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) </a> (CTG) share price has plunged by 63% despite solid 9M23 profits growth and cash flushed balance sheet </li>
<li>Underlying fundamentals is solid, Chinese people still buying duty free goods, albeit tilting towards value than decadence purchases </li>
<li>CTG is cheap relative to its own history on all valuation metrics (PE, P/Book, P/FCF) and many technical indicators suggest it is in OVERSOLD territory </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)  (CTG) share price has plunged by 63% despite solid 9M23 profits growth and cash flushed balance sheet 
Underlying fundamentals is solid, Chinese people still buying duty free goods, albeit tilting towards value than decadence purchases 
CTG is cheap relative to its own history on all valuation metrics (PE, P/Book, P/FCF) and many technical indicators suggest it is in OVERSOLD territory 


China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Adds, Two Deletes, as Expected

China National Nuclear Power and Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower will replace CTG Duty Free and Yihai Kerry Arawana in the ETFs. Passives need to...

Brian Freitas

China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing

China Tourism Group under pressure on negative sentiment and increased competition. But earnings will continue to grow and push valuations deeper...

Mohshin Aziz

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): New Duty-Free Contracts with Airports, Slight Negative

China Tourism Group has signed a new contract to promote collaborations with airports in Beijing and Shanghai. Market sees it as negative, but we...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

Mohshin Aziz

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China A50 ETF Rebalance: Two Adds, Two Deletes, as Expected

China National Nuclear Power and Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower will replace CTG Duty Free and Yihai Kerry Arawana in the ETFs. Passives need to...

Brian Freitas

China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): When Falling Knife Turns into Value Investing

​China Tourism Group under pressure on negative sentiment and increased competition. But earnings will continue to grow and push valuations deeper...

Mohshin Aziz

LVMH & Richemont Said Chinese Demand for Luxury Goods Is Strong; POSITIVE for China Tourism Group

​European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group (601888 CH | BUY | CNY): New Duty-Free Contracts with Airports, Slight Negative

​China Tourism Group has signed a new contract to promote collaborations with airports in Beijing and Shanghai. Market sees it as negative, but we...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

​China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism Group under pressure on negative sentiment and increased competition. But earnings will continue to grow and push valuations deeper...

European luxury goods producers performing well and attributed to Chinese consumers. China Tourism Group is the primary beneficiary of Chinese...

China Tourism Group has signed a new contract to promote collaborations with airports in Beijing and Shanghai. Market sees it as negative, but we...

China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...