Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.</li>
<li>There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituents at 8%. This will lead to large flows.
The largest passive outflows as a result of capping will be on Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) due to their weight exceeding 8% in all three indices.
There are large funding outflows (in terms of days of ADV to trade) on quite a few Hong Kong property stocks as well as stocks from the financials sector.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>We warned our readers on rising leverage in China back in April, based on cheap funding costs rather than borrower’s repayment capability. We pointed out that the music had stopped.   </li>
<li>We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road ahead. </li>
<li>Investors who can understand the restructuring process in China and withstand volatility of the bonds rated B or below could generate Alpha in the long run. </li>
</ul>


We warned our readers on rising leverage in China back in April, based on cheap funding costs rather than borrower’s repayment capability. We pointed out that the music had stopped.   
We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road ahead. 
Investors who can understand the restructuring process in China and withstand volatility of the bonds rated B or below could generate Alpha in the long run. 


The Chinese Credit Chronicle: The Below CCC Moment

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-10675'>Honghua Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-15142'>Pan Brothers</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.EvergrandeHonghua GroupPan Brothers

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, Honghua Group, Pan Brothers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On Friday 26 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-new-energy-vehicle-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:713:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Auto (708 HK)</a> dropped a business <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/1126/2021112601534.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> at 10:30pm.</li>
<li>The land under Guangzhou Evergrande Stadium has been taken over by the local government meaning the $1.8bn project is under new control. The team may be forfeit as well.</li>
<li>Evergrande Chairman Hui sold 1.2 billion shares of Evergrande (3333 HK) last week in what appeared to be two transactions. That may be linked to a third this coming week.</li>
</ul>


On Friday 26 November, Evergrande Auto (708 HK) dropped a business update at 10:30pm.
The land under Guangzhou Evergrande Stadium has been taken over by the local government meaning the $1.8bn project is under new control. The team may be forfeit as well.
Evergrande Chairman Hui sold 1.2 billion shares of Evergrande (3333 HK) last week in what appeared to be two transactions. That may be linked to a third this coming week.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Stadium Levy:Likely Guangzhou City Construction Investment Group has seized the halted China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] stadium project in order to dispose of it;</li>
<li>
Stake Sale:In order to stave off default, Evergrande’s Chairman reduced his family’s stake, raising the equivalent USD 344 mn; and</li>
<li>
Guarantee and Grace Period:Investors are threatening to re-invoke Evergrande’s Jumbo Fortune bond guarantee, and we await the expiry of another 30-day grace period expiry on December 6, 2021.</li>
</ul>



Stadium Levy:Likely Guangzhou City Construction Investment Group has seized the halted China Evergrande Group’s (3333.HK) [Evergrande] stadium project in order to dispose of it;

Stake Sale:In order to stave off default, Evergrande’s Chairman reduced his family’s stake, raising the equivalent USD 344 mn; and

Guarantee and Grace Period:Investors are threatening to re-invoke Evergrande’s Jumbo Fortune bond guarantee, and we await the expiry of another 30-day grace period expiry on December 6, 2021.


China Evergrande Group – Levies and Liquidations

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: December Rebalance Flows Post Capping

The Dec rebalance of the HK indices will use today's closing prices to cap the stocks at 8%. Meituan and Tencent will see large outflows due to...

Brian Freitas

The Chinese Credit Chronicle: The Below CCC Moment

We summarize on what has happened in the Chinese high-yield world and what is next. We believe the worst is behind us but we do have a bumpy road...

Bondcritic

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, Honghua Group, Pan Brothers

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Goings On in Evergrande Land

EG NEV (708 HK) raised equity, then sold land back to the local govt, Chairman Hui sold shares, the local govt took back the Lotus Flower stadium,...

Travis Lundy

China Evergrande Group – Levies and Liquidations

EVERGRANDE: Authorities have seized Evergrande's stadium project. The Chairman reduced his family’s stake, but we await the outcome of a bond...

Thomas J. Monaco

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