Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China Statistics Bureaus calculate resold home prices lower than the real market prices.</li><li>Apartment buyers and sellers provide discounted prices to governmental bureaus for tax avoidance and make up to the real prices via supplemental agreements.</li><li>Local governments do not want to reveal the real high prices, or the central government will believe local officials do not have the ability of market intervention.</li></ul>

China Statistics Bureaus calculate resold home prices lower than the real market prices.Apartment buyers and sellers provide discounted prices to governmental bureaus for tax avoidance and make up to the real prices via supplemental agreements.Local governments do not want to reveal the real high prices, or the central government will believe local officials do not have the ability of market intervention.

China Statistics Bureaus Miss Supplemental Agreements in Calculating Resold Home Price

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li> Simultaneous deleveraging in China and protectionism/fiscal expansion in the US would shift the longstanding correlation between US inflation and Chinese growth expectations.</li>
<li>Aggregate debt growth in China exceeded nominal GDP growth by 1.3ppts in 2017 so deleveraging has not yet begun, but looks imminent as regulatory pressure intensifies.</li>
<li>The takeover of Anbang reflects a increasingly comprehensive attempt to remove opaque funding channels and implicit government guarantees that have distorted…</li>
</ul>


 Simultaneous deleveraging in China and protectionism/fiscal expansion in the US would shift the longstanding correlation between US inflation and Chinese growth expectations.
Aggregate debt growth in China exceeded nominal GDP growth by 1.3ppts in 2017 so deleveraging has not yet begun, but looks imminent as regulatory pressure intensifies.
The takeover of Anbang reflects a increasingly comprehensive attempt to remove opaque funding channels and implicit government guarantees that have distorted…


Xi and Trump Policy Priorities Imply US Inflation to Diverge From Chinese Growth

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on February 25, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for January-February - expected to be published on March 14.

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending on February 25, as an early alternative indicator for the growth pattern seen in the monthly national sales volumes figures for January-February - expected to be published on March 14.  

China Weekly Property Sales Data Till Feb 25 Suggests Stability (Adjusted For Chinese New Year)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth year-on-year across the major cities and a slightly slower month-on-month sequential growth.

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth year-on-year across the major cities and a slightly slower month-on-month sequential growth. 

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Investment Advisors

JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Consistently throughout our coverage of the housing market in China, we made it clear that:<ul>
<li>1) the real estate market is the lynch pin of the Chinese economy as it drives the entire food chain from commodities, land prices, local government fiscal revenues, construction activities, to household discretionary spending and thus to China’s GDP; and</li>
<li>2) the housing market is a policy tool that the government uses to manage the relationship between the macro economy, asset prices, wealth distribution…</li>
</ul>

Consistently throughout our coverage of the housing market in China, we made it clear that:
1) the real estate market is the lynch pin of the Chinese economy as it drives the entire food chain from commodities, land prices, local government fiscal revenues, construction activities, to household discretionary spending and thus to China’s GDP; and
2) the housing market is a policy tool that the government uses to manage the relationship between the macro economy, asset prices, wealth distribution…


Exports Driven Chinese Housing Market Stabilization; Expect Liquidity Tightening After Luna New Year

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Statistics Bureaus Miss Supplemental Agreements in Calculating Resold Home Price

China Statistics Bureaus calculate resold home prices lower than the real market prices. Apartment buyers and sellers provide discounted prices to...

Ming Lu

Xi and Trump Policy Priorities Imply US Inflation to Diverge From Chinese Growth

Simultaneous deleveraging in China and protectionism/fiscal expansion in the US would shift the longstanding correlation between US inflation and...

Sean Maher

China Weekly Property Sales Data Till Feb 25 Suggests Stability (Adjusted For Chinese New Year)

We look at the weekly new home sales data (gross floor area sold) for the 13 major cities sample in China, with the data covering the period ending...

Robert Ciemniak

China House Price Growth Back To The Slow Slowdown Trend After December Pickup (January NBS Data)

The NBS house price data for 70 major cities in January was released on Saturday and shows a renewed deceleration in the average price growth...

Robert Ciemniak

Exports Driven Chinese Housing Market Stabilization; Expect Liquidity Tightening After Luna New Year

Consistently throughout our coverage of the housing market in China, we made it clear that: 1) the real estate market is the lynch pin of the...

JL Warren Capital

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