Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

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Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p><br/> The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.<br/></p>

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>About 9-10 weeks ago, Chinese authorities called a dozen large real estate developers onto the carpet with very little lead time and <s>asked</s><s>proposed</s> mandated they participate in a "pilot programme" called<strong> Three Red Lines</strong>. </p><p>"Pilot programme" is a nice way of saying - <em>"Here are the new rules, and they apply to you first."</em></p><p>In this case, it meant there were three criteria, and if as a developer you met all three, your company could increase debt by 15% vs the previous year. If you met two, it was 10%, and if one, 5% was the cap. If you met none of them, you would not be allowed to increase debt. </p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> was one of those twelve companies, and it met none of the criteria to allow it to increase debt. Given the company's funding costs and extraordinarily large supplier finance position, that leaves wiggle room only to the downside. The gross book has to shrink.</p><p>Five weeks after the meeting, it was reported in local media that the company had sent a letter asking for assistance to the Guangzhou government four days after the Three Red Lines intro meeting, warning of the possibility of funding difficulties and default, in part due to a RMB 130bn (+ redemption premium) redemption of private shares issuance due at the end of January 2021. When this came out, the company denied the existence of the letter, but various media outlets said they had seen it. This was discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/evergrande-may-be-facing-a-funding-squeeze" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43592" rel="noopener">Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze</a>.</p><p>The shares fell, and this was slightly problematic because despite having a buyback programme which allowed the company to buy back up to 10% of shares outstanding, under the HKEX Listing Rules, it only had room to buy about 20mm shares as of the end of its buyback splurge in May and June 2020.  Media outlets then reported that the company had obtained assistance in convincing many (but not all) of its investors in the Hengda Real Estate subsidiary to not ask for their money back 3 months hence. That sent the shares back up. </p><p>Then two weeks ago, the company announced a sale of up to US$1.3bn (including greenshoe) in shares at an 11.1-14.7% discount. I wrote about Evergrande's share sale in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/evergrande-equity-placement-musical-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44137" rel="noopener">Evergrande Equity Placement - Musical Shares</a>. It turns out the company could not place more than about half the base amount, at the widest discount in the range, which was 3% below the average price paid in the May-June buyback highlighted in yellow.</p><p>The shares fell sharply the next day (14 October), soundly breaking the offering price. The chart below is as of close of business post-placement.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/419/original/Screenshot%202020-10-30%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png?1604029859" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168419"></figure><p></p></section><p>The "musical shares" I saw implied in the placement was that the amount raised was immaterial to its prospects of having an equity buffer, or in raising funds to reduce debt. It was less than one-tenth the amount of Hengda which was left without a guarantee of a refinance or extension. It was well under one half of one percent of Evergrande debt.</p><p>The lack of success of the offering caused shares to drop further, reaching HK$14.20 on Wednesday 28 October and opening below HK$14.00 yesterday. </p><p>What the placement DID do was afford Evergrande more room to buy back shares. After the buyback at end June, the company had room to buy 20mm shares. Not enough to affect much. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>How far the stock had to drop before Evergrande made use of its new buffer to buy back shares was answered yesterday.</p></div><p>Two weeks after the placement of shares at HK$16.50 caused the shares to fall sharply from the HK$19 area to which they had rebounded, the company <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2020/1029/2020102900815.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> they had bought back 900,000 shares. </p><p>This came earlier, and at a higher price, than I thought likely. Yesterday, the company bought back shares at a 10.6% discount to where they had just placed shares a week ago, and at a 7% premium to where they had been trading earlier in the day.</p><p>Subtlety is not the company's strong suit. </p><p>More discussion below the fold. </p>

About 9-10 weeks ago, Chinese authorities called a dozen large real estate developers onto the carpet with very little lead time and askedproposed mandated they participate in a "pilot programme" called Three Red Lines. "Pilot programme" is a nice way of saying - "Here are the new rules, and they apply to you first."In this case, it meant there were three criteria, and if as a developer you met all three, your company could increase debt by 15% vs the previous year. If you met two, it was 10%, and if one, 5% was the cap. If you met none of them, you would not be allowed to increase debt. Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) was one of those twelve companies, and it met none of the criteria to allow it to increase debt. Given the company's funding costs and extraordinarily large supplier finance position, that leaves wiggle room only to the downside. The gross book has to shrink.Five weeks after the meeting, it was reported in local media that the company had sent a letter asking for assistance to the Guangzhou government four days after the Three Red Lines intro meeting, warning of the possibility of funding difficulties and default, in part due to a RMB 130bn (+ redemption premium) redemption of private shares issuance due at the end of January 2021. When this came out, the company denied the existence of the letter, but various media outlets said they had seen it. This was discussed in Evergrande May Be Facing a Funding Squeeze.The shares fell, and this was slightly problematic because despite having a buyback programme which allowed the company to buy back up to 10% of shares outstanding, under the HKEX Listing Rules, it only had room to buy about 20mm shares as of the end of its buyback splurge in May and June 2020.  Media outlets then reported that the company had obtained assistance in convincing many (but not all) of its investors in the Hengda Real Estate subsidiary to not ask for their money back 3 months hence. That sent the shares back up. Then two weeks ago, the company announced a sale of up to US$1.3bn (including greenshoe) in shares at an 11.1-14.7% discount. I wrote about Evergrande's share sale in Evergrande Equity Placement - Musical Shares. It turns out the company could not place more than about half the base amount, at the widest discount in the range, which was 3% below the average price paid in the May-June buyback highlighted in yellow.The shares fell sharply the next day (14 October), soundly breaking the offering price. The chart below is as of close of business post-placement.The "musical shares" I saw implied in the placement was that the amount raised was immaterial to its prospects of having an equity buffer, or in raising funds to reduce debt. It was less than one-tenth the amount of Hengda which was left without a guarantee of a refinance or extension. It was well under one half of one percent of Evergrande debt.The lack of success of the offering caused shares to drop further, reaching HK$14.20 on Wednesday 28 October and opening below HK$14.00 yesterday. What the placement DID do was afford Evergrande more room to buy back shares. After the buyback at end June, the company had room to buy 20mm shares. Not enough to affect much. How far the stock had to drop before Evergrande made use of its new buffer to buy back shares was answered yesterday.Two weeks after the placement of shares at HK$16.50 caused the shares to fall sharply from the HK$19 area to which they had rebounded, the company announced they had bought back 900,000 shares. This came earlier, and at a higher price, than I thought likely. Yesterday, the company bought back shares at a 10.6% discount to where they had just placed shares a week ago, and at a 7% premium to where they had been trading earlier in the day.Subtlety is not the company's strong suit. More discussion below the fold. 

Evergrande Equity De-Placement: Musical Shares

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>For China regulator, the challenge is to keep the economic ship steady while avoiding creating asset market bubble such as real estate sector. Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor at the PBOC, said last week the central bank would focus on improving the macro-prudential monitoring, evaluating, and alerting systems in key areas including real estate financing.</p>
<p>We believe PBOC liquidity policy object towards real estate is adjusting from a reasonably hands-off approach in H1 to allow the property to support growth to mixed goals: curbing financial risks (developer debt/fast-rising land prices) and still allowing a property to support growth (given macro risks).</p>
<p>There are signs of a more stringent real estate financial regime in Q4 as regulators are seeking more transparency from property developers, calling for more details about current debts, to rein in borrowing costs and quell broader financial impacts.</p>

For China regulator, the challenge is to keep the economic ship steady while avoiding creating asset market bubble such as real estate sector. Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor at the PBOC, said last week the central bank would focus on improving the macro-prudential monitoring, evaluating, and alerting systems in key areas including real estate financing.
We believe PBOC liquidity policy object towards real estate is adjusting from a reasonably hands-off approach in H1 to allow the property to support growth to mixed goals: curbing financial risks (developer debt/fast-rising land prices) and still allowing a property to support growth (given macro risks).
There are signs of a more stringent real estate financial regime in Q4 as regulators are seeking more transparency from property developers, calling for more details about current debts, to rein in borrowing costs and quell broader financial impacts.

China Developer Bond Issuance Still Grow Despite Tightening

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p>
<p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinyi-solar-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:318:1" rel="noopener">Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Financials stocks and decreased in Health Care, Information Technology and Real Estate names.</p>
</div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts covered were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1:1" rel="noopener">Canon Inc (7751 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a>, while shorts increased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10482:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/terrasky-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27747:1" rel="noopener">TerraSky Co Ltd (3915 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Staples, while shorts were covered on Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology names.</p></div><div><p>Shorts threw in the towel in Korea with a large drop in short interest due to short covering. Largest shorts were covered in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ncsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5169:1" rel="noopener">NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netmarble-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22839:1" rel="noopener">Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asustek-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13002:1" rel="noopener">Asustek Computer (2357 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walsin-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11084:1" rel="noopener">Walsin Technology (2492 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/largan-precision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9126:1" rel="noopener">Largan Precision (3008 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wiwynn-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27838:1" rel="noopener">Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT)</a>. </p></div>


The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.
Hong Kong saw shorts rise on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), HSBC Holdings (5 HK) and Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) and Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK). Shorts increased in Financials stocks and decreased in Health Care, Information Technology and Real Estate names.
In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts covered were Fast Retailing (9983 JP), Canon Inc (7751 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP) and Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), while shorts increased on Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), Asahi Group Holdings (2502 JP), Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP) and TerraSky Co Ltd (3915 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Industrials, Real Estate and Consumer Staples, while shorts were covered on Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology names.Shorts threw in the towel in Korea with a large drop in short interest due to short covering. Largest shorts were covered in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS), SK Hynix (000660 KS) and Netmarble Corporation (251270 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were TSMC (2330 TT), Acer Inc (2353 TT), Unimicron Technology (3037 TT) and Asustek Computer (2357 TT) while shorts were covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Walsin Technology (2492 TT), Largan Precision (3008 TT) and Wiwynn Corp (6669 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Xiaomi, Evergrande, Toshiba, Asahi, NBF, Samsung, Hynix, TSMC, Acer

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Evergrande, Link Admin, NTT Docomo, Melifecare, Wipro, Wilmar, Huya/DouYu

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Evergrande Equity De-Placement: Musical Shares

Evergrande bought back shares in May-June, leaving little room to buy back more. Debt ructions caused share price fluctuations. The company issued...

Travis Lundy

China Developer Bond Issuance Still Grow Despite Tightening

The new real estate financial rules have not yet had an impact on developers,China Developer bond issuance still grow despite tightening rule.

Li Tang

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Xiaomi, Evergrande, Toshiba, Asahi, NBF, Samsung, Hynix, TSMC, Acer

In Korea, shorts are throwing in the towel while short positions keep increasing in Taiwan. The report looks at stocks where there have been large...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Evergrande, Link Admin, NTT Docomo, Melifecare, Wipro, Wilmar, Huya/DouYu

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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