IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Evergrande Property Services / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Services (EGS HK)</a> is a Chinese property management provider. Evergrande ranked fourth in GFA under management, among the Top 100 property management companies in China in 2019, according to CIA. The controlling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>. Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports.  </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Property developers continue to spin-off their property management arms due to tight credit conditions. However, investors are spoiled for choice due to the plethora of opportunities to gain exposure to the Chinese property management sector through listed companies and a healthy queue of IPO hopefuls. An IPO hopeful needs to offer a combination of strong fundamentals and/or attractive valuation to grab attention. Overall, Evergrande’s fundamentals are attractive, in our view. </p></div>

Evergrande Services (EGS HK) is a Chinese property management provider. Evergrande ranked fourth in GFA under management, among the Top 100 property management companies in China in 2019, according to CIA. The controlling shareholder is Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK). Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports.  Property developers continue to spin-off their property management arms due to tight credit conditions. However, investors are spoiled for choice due to the plethora of opportunities to gain exposure to the Chinese property management sector through listed companies and a healthy queue of IPO hopefuls. An IPO hopeful needs to offer a combination of strong fundamentals and/or attractive valuation to grab attention. Overall, Evergrande’s fundamentals are attractive, in our view. 

Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ke-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29213:1" rel="noopener">KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US)</a> (BEKE), a company backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and Hillhouse, raised around US$2.1bn in its US listing in Aug 2020. It's now back to raise a similar amount. </p></div><div><p>We have covered the stock since its listing, links to our previous notes are below. In this insight, I'll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.</p></div><div><p>In my previous insight, I have looked at various aspects of the deal:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ke-holdings-beike-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-high-market-share" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KE Holdings/​Beike Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, High Market Share</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ke-holdings-beike-pre-ipo-the-negatives-questions-margins-p2p" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KE Holdings/​​Beike Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Questions, Margins, P2P</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ke-holdings-beike-pre-ipo-recent-updates-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KE Holdings/​​Beike Pre-IPO - Recent Updates, Peer Comparison</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ke-holdings-beike-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation-rumoured-valuation-might-be-a-stretch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KE Holdings/​​​Beike Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation, Rumoured Valuation Might Be a Stretch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ke-holdings-beike-ipo-can-t-see-much-upside" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KE Holdings/​​​​Beike IPO - Can’t See Much Upside</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ke-holdings-beike-ipo-trading-we-would-be-sellers-if-it-pops" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KE Holdings/​​​​​Beike IPO Trading - We Would Be Sellers if It Pops</a></li>
</ul></div>

KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US) (BEKE), a company backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Hillhouse, raised around US$2.1bn in its US listing in Aug 2020. It's now back to raise a similar amount. We have covered the stock since its listing, links to our previous notes are below. In this insight, I'll run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about deal dynamics.In my previous insight, I have looked at various aspects of the deal:

KE Holdings/​Beike Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, High Market Share, 
KE Holdings/​​Beike Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Questions, Margins, P2P
KE Holdings/​​Beike Pre-IPO - Recent Updates, Peer Comparison
KE Holdings/​​​Beike Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation, Rumoured Valuation Might Be a Stretch
KE Holdings/​​​​Beike IPO - Can’t See Much Upside
KE Holdings/​​​​​Beike IPO Trading - We Would Be Sellers if It Pops


KE Holdings/​​​​​Beike Placement - Too Much, Too Soon. Front Running the Lock-Up Expiry

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong><em>*Yongcheng Coal Default: </em></strong>According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and</p><p><strong><em>*Watch Your Banks: </em></strong>The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.</p>

*Yongcheng Coal Default: According to Shanghai Clearing House, Yongcheng Coal and Electricity (YCE) in Henan Province failed to repay a CNY 1 bn (USD 151 mn) short-term bond despite being given the highest rating by one of mainland China’s awful domestic credit ratings agencies; and*Watch Your Banks: The yield on benchmark five-year “AAA” rated mainland Chinese corporates was 3.99% - up over 100 bp from their April 2020 low. Investor flight is pushing financing costs higher and squeezing local corporate funding in a market which is just barely recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns remain over higher problem loans as debt service risk is heightened over higher rates, unreliable financial statements and ratings agency reports, and now an inability to refinance public debt with a number of bond sales being canceled. Further, the degradation of corporate bond values is limiting their usage as collateral.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Event-Driven

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.</p><p>For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 9 inclusions and 9 deletions.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-invest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>. </p><p>The deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-taiping-insurance-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:489:1" rel="noopener">China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a>. </p><p>One-way turnover is estimated at 10.21% and volumes at the closing auction on 4 December are going to be HUGE. Passive funds will need to trade between 1.5-4.5 days of ADV on the deletions and between 0.5-4 days of ADV on the inclusions.</p><p>We had picked all 9 inclusions and exclusions, so there are no surprises in the review. That said, the probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> being included was the lowest since it was right at the cusp of inclusion, so there could be a pop at the open on Monday. Hansoh, at almost 4 days of ADV, has the biggest impact to buy from passive funds. The corresponding deletion was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and the stock could start trading lower on Monday.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 13 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 9 inclusions and 9 deletions.The inclusions are Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK) and NetEase (9999 HK). The deletions are Want Want (151 HK), Fosun International (656 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK), China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK), China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK), China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK), China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK) and PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK). One-way turnover is estimated at 10.21% and volumes at the closing auction on 4 December are going to be HUGE. Passive funds will need to trade between 1.5-4.5 days of ADV on the deletions and between 0.5-4 days of ADV on the inclusions.We had picked all 9 inclusions and exclusions, so there are no surprises in the review. That said, the probability of Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) being included was the lowest since it was right at the cusp of inclusion, so there could be a pop at the open on Monday. Hansoh, at almost 4 days of ADV, has the biggest impact to buy from passive funds. The corresponding deletion was PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and the stock could start trading lower on Monday.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 9 Adds, 9 Deletes, BIG Turnover

Asia Fixed Income Analyst

Derek Silva

Credit

<p>Since their introduction less than a decade ago, there has been much discussion and little evidence about the enforceability of the ‘keepwell’ deed in many Chinese USD corporate bonds. And, given that the biggest issuer of keepwell bonds in 2020 is Evergrande’s Hengda Real Estate, it remains as relevant as ever. Until recently, the structure had yet to be put to the test in any prominent distressed cases.  </p><p>A high-profile case in 2020 seemed to have changed that. In recent months, investors and analysts have closely followed the situation with PKFounder, a distressed issuer with a keepwell bond. And it didn’t look good for keepwell bondholders: The<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/china-bond-keepwell/administrator-for-chinas-pufg-rejects-keepwell-deed-for-300-mln-bond-redd-idINL4N2FP01J" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> judgement rejected the bondholders' claims</a>, seemingly solidifying the argument for those who said the structure was little more than a gentleman’s agreement and provided a false sense of security.  </p><p>But now there’s been a new legal decision from a smaller case that contradicts the PKFounder decision. Which brings to mind something important to remember: the concept of <em>legal precedent</em> is not as powerful in China as it is elsewhere. In the other case, Mainland company CEFC had an offshore subsidiary which also issued keepwell bonds and, this month, the Shanghai Financial Court ordered the company to pay a bondholder on account of the keepwell deed. </p><p>In the following sections, we take a closer look at the specifics. And, while there is no firm conclusion about the enforceability of a keepwell deed, the latest news shows that the situation is not cut-and-dry and the keepwell feature in bonds might not be worthless after all.</p><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/171/416/original/Screenshot%202020-11-14%20at%2011.21.07.png?1605330171" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="171416"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: https://events.debtwire.com/apchart-of-the-week-keepwells-back-19-of-chinese-hy-bonds-ytd-while-pkfounder-cefc-bring-structure-on-focus</div></section><p></p></section>

Since their introduction less than a decade ago, there has been much discussion and little evidence about the enforceability of the ‘keepwell’ deed in many Chinese USD corporate bonds. And, given that the biggest issuer of keepwell bonds in 2020 is Evergrande’s Hengda Real Estate, it remains as relevant as ever. Until recently, the structure had yet to be put to the test in any prominent distressed cases.  A high-profile case in 2020 seemed to have changed that. In recent months, investors and analysts have closely followed the situation with PKFounder, a distressed issuer with a keepwell bond. And it didn’t look good for keepwell bondholders: The judgement rejected the bondholders' claims, seemingly solidifying the argument for those who said the structure was little more than a gentleman’s agreement and provided a false sense of security.  But now there’s been a new legal decision from a smaller case that contradicts the PKFounder decision. Which brings to mind something important to remember: the concept of legal precedent is not as powerful in China as it is elsewhere. In the other case, Mainland company CEFC had an offshore subsidiary which also issued keepwell bonds and, this month, the Shanghai Financial Court ordered the company to pay a bondholder on account of the keepwell deed. In the following sections, we take a closer look at the specifics. And, while there is no firm conclusion about the enforceability of a keepwell deed, the latest news shows that the situation is not cut-and-dry and the keepwell feature in bonds might not be worthless after all.Source: https://events.debtwire.com/apchart-of-the-week-keepwells-back-19-of-chinese-hy-bonds-ytd-while-pkfounder-cefc-bring-structure-on-focus

Keepwells: Not Dead Yet - There Might Be Some Protection After All?

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out

Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports. Overall,...

Arun George

KE Holdings/Beike Placement - Too Much, Too Soon. Front Running the Lock-Up Expiry

KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US), a company backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Hillhouse, raised US$2.1bn in its US listing...

Sumeet Singh

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 9 Adds, 9 Deletes, BIG Turnover

There are 9 adds and 9 deletes in the upcoming HSCEI rebalance. Turnover at 10%+ is big and there is a lot of short interest on names. The momentum...

Brian Freitas

Keepwells: Not Dead Yet - There Might Be Some Protection After All?

Investors increasingly believe Keepwell deeds are worthless after the PKFounder legal decision this year. But a more recent case seems to...

Derek Silva

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out

Evergrande is joining the ever-expanding list of property management IPOs by seeking to raise $2 billion, according to press reports. Overall,...

Arun George

KE Holdings/​​​​​Beike Placement - Too Much, Too Soon. Front Running the Lock-Up Expiry

KE Holdings Inc (BEKE US), a company backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Hillhouse, raised US$2.1bn in its US listing...

Sumeet Singh

Another Day, Another Default

MAINLAND CHINA DEFAULT: Yongcheng Coal Defaulted On Its Debt, Leading To Concerns About The Credibility Of AAA Rated Corporates In Mainland China...

Thomas J. Monaco

HSCEI Index Rebalance: 9 Adds, 9 Deletes, BIG Turnover

There are 9 adds and 9 deletes in the upcoming HSCEI rebalance. Turnover at 10%+ is big and there is a lot of short interest on names. The momentum...

Brian Freitas

Keepwells: Not Dead Yet - There Might Be Some Protection After All?

Investors increasingly believe Keepwell deeds are worthless after the PKFounder legal decision this year. But a more recent case seems to...

Derek Silva

KE Holdings/Beike Placement - Too Much, Too Soon. Front Running the Lock-Up Expiry